Week 8 in the NFL

Last week was another solid week for me. I went 9-4 for the second week in a row, and got 88 out of a possible 105 points. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-7. The breakdown is as follows:

Weeks 1 - 7 : 578 points out of a possible 814 (71%)
Weeks 3 - 7 : 377 points out of a possible 542 (69.6%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 7: 64 wins, 38 losses (69.6%)
Weeks 3 - 7: 46 wins, 26 losses (63.9%)

Anyhow, here are my Week 8 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 13 means I'm as sure as I can be.


1PM Games

Detroit Lions (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Tampa Bay, 23-16; Chicago beat Philadelphia, 19-16.

Detroit may be a legitimate playoff team. At worst, they are the second best team in the NFC North behind the Green Bay Packers. The way to beat the Bears is to pound the football offensively. That isn't a strength of Detroit's, as they have the league's 27th ranked rushing offense. Detroit beat Chicago in Week 4 because they set an NFL record for fourth quarter points with 34. Chicago's defense is a little healthier this time around, and there is no way Detroit will beat Chicago twice in the same season.

Who will win: Chicago (5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Pittsburgh lost to Denver, 31-28; Cincinnati beat New York Jets, 38-31.

Pittsburgh entered last week's contest vs Denver with one of the best rushing offenses in football. Denver had great difficulty stopping the run going into the game. For some reason, the Steelers opted to emphasize throwing the football, instead of attacking an obvious weakness. This week, Cincy's run defense is weak as well, so I wouldn't expect Pittsburgh to pass up the opportunity to smash their heated division rival in the mouth. The Bengals have to be considered one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, and head coach Marvin Lewis will need more than a win against the woeful Jets if he wants to keep his job.

Who will win: Pittsburgh (8)

Indianapolis Colts (6-0, 3-0 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-2, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis beat Jacksonville, 29-7; Carolina had the bye week.

I have a confession to make: I was hoping against hope that the Colts would slip up against Jacksonville. I should have known better. The Patriots are getting all the publicity, but the Colts are quietly playing like defending Super Bowl champions. Their only Achilles's heel was their run defense in the past, but they're at least competent in that area now. This will be a nice little tune-up for their showdown vs the Patriots next Sunday. Panthers coach John Fox is rumored to be toying with the idea of platooning quarterbacks Vinny Testaverde and David Carr. Testaverde is 43 years old, and Carr has been sacked 33 times in 10 games against the Colts. Look for this game to give him new nightmares.

Who will win: Indianapolis (11)

Oakland Raiders (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (4-2, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Oakland lost to Kansas City, 12-10; Tennessee beat Houston, 38-36.

Hear that sound? That's the sound of everyone hitting the ground that was on the Raiders bandwagon. After two straight losses, the Raiders find themselves in the basement of the AFC West. Oakland has had big problems stopping the run. The Titans are looking forward to the return of their evasive quarterback Vince Young. The Titans had their back-up QB in last week, AND they gave up 29 points in the 4th quarter. They escaped with a victory nonetheless. It was one those wins that playoff teams get. Plus, this one's in Nashville.

Who will win: Tennessee (7)

Cleveland Browns (3-3, 0-2 on the road) at St Louis Rams (0-7, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland had the bye week; St Louis lost to Seattle, 33-6.

Cleveland looks like all of their young offensive talent is emerging at once. QB Derek Anderson, wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II are quite the triplets. Running back Jamal Lewis is eying a return to action this week. I know I sound like a broken record, but the Rams would be the worst team in football if not for the Miami Dolphins. Rams QB Marc Bulger returned last week, but threw 3 interceptions and lost two fumbles. Running back Steven Jackson will start, but how effective will he be facing 8-man defensive fronts?

Who will win: Cleveland (6)

New York Giants (5-2, 2-1 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-7, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: New York beat San Francisco, 33-15; Miami lost to New England, 49-28.

I have to get this off my chest: don't feed me all that garbage about this being a great thing for the NFL. It's not. The fact that this game is being played in London, and not in the United States is bogus. I know the NBA became famous world-wide by playing exhibition games overseas, conducting camps and so on. However, the NFL belongs here in America. I always laughed at people who said baseball was America's game, especially when the Yankees and Devil Rays kicked off the 2004 season in Japan. Now, the NFL has exported it's great product. Oh well. I'm probably just being selfish anyway. It's all about making money, and that's what the NFL is trying to do. I guess you can't blame them for that. Miami fans are probably sick of their franchise now anyway, and their best player - running back Ronnie Brown - will miss the rest of the season with an injury. The Giants should roll all over Miami, probably the worst team in the AFC.

Who will win: New York (12)

Philadelphia Eagles (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia lost to Chicago, 19-16; Minnesota lost to Dallas, 24-14.

I've arrived at another conclusion this week: the Eagles are not going to be the NFC Champions, as I so foolishly predicted prior to the season. Strictly looking at statistics, it's hard to pinpoint one sore spot: the Eagles are no worse than mediocre in almost all of the major categories. So what are they missing? Leadership? A defining moment? Heart? Whatever it is, the Eagles need to find it, and fast. Their season is slipping away. The Vikings are also 2-4, but have a much more optimistic view of things. Minnesota fans salivate at the thought of rookie sensation running back Adrian Peterson playing for the next 10 years. In this one, beware of the home underdog.

Who will win: Minnesota (3)

4PM Games

Buffalo Bills (2-4, 0-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-6, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo beat Baltimore, 19-14; New York lost to Cincinnati, 38-31.

Wow, so much for the AFC East being a competitive division. Everyone knew the Dolphins would be bad, but the Jets and Bills had high hopes for 2007. Buffalo's offense hasn't made any noise this season. The Jets and their coach Eric Mangini have to be disappointed with their season as well. Second year player Kellen Clemens will be starting at quarterback, and will look to launch the Jets offense. I think I just clinched the "lamest pun of the year award". Anyway, Both teams are just awful. What more is there to say? I'll go with the home team.

Who will win: New York (4)

Houston Texans (3-4, 1-2 at home) at San Diego Chargers (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston lost to Tennessee, 38-36; San Diego had the bye last week.

Last week, the Texans made a furious comeback, only to be defeated on the game's last play. The Texans have now lost two straight, and that should be enough to make fans start planning for 2008. Star wide receiver Andre Johnson is still out with an injury, so Houston will once again be without it's best player. Word just broke that the Chargers will be playing this game in San Diego, despite the disastrous brushfires that took place this week. Before their week off, the Chargers look like they were finally flourishing in new coach Norv Turner's system. Look for Turner to feature all-world running back LaDainian Tomlinson and his new toy - wide receiver Chris Chambers.

Who will win: San Diego (10)

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2, 2-0 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis, 29-7; Tampa Bay lost to Detroit, 23-16.

Jacksonville's starting quarterback - David Garrard - is out with an injury. That means Quinn Gray will get his first career start. Might as well be Dr Quinn, Medicine Woman starting this one. Tampa Bay will key in on running back Maurice Jones-Drew, and Gray won't be able to make them pay.

Who will win: Tampa Bay (9)

New Orleans Saints (2-4. 1-2 on the road) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans beat Atlanta, 22-16; San Francisco lost to New York Giants, 33-15.

The Saints may have won their last 2 games, but they have a long way to go before they can be mentioned as potential NFC South Champions. They hurt their cause by losing to division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina.San Francisco can't lose the rest of their games, and this one is one they have to win to save face. Plus, quarterback Alex Smith returns this week, and running back Frank Gore is due for a big game. The 49ers are also at home. This one is my "mini-upset" of the week.

Who will win: San Francisco (1)

Washington Redskins (4-2, 1-1 on the road) at New England Patriots (7-0, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Washington beat Arizona,21-19; New England beat Miami, 49-28.

All I can say is this: the Patriots will win, but I don't think it will be by any more than 14 points. This will be the Patriots closest game of the season to this point. Even if the play-calling of 'Skins head coach Joe Gibbs becomes more conservative than a Republican National Convention (and prevents Washington from doing much damage), Washington will still stay in the game. The Redskins just don't look like a team that will get blown out.

Who will win: New England (13)

Monday Night Game



Green Bay Packers (5-1, 2-0 on the road) at Denver Broncos (3-3, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay had the bye week; Denver beat Pittsburgh, 31-28.

This is the week where everyone realizes Green Bay just isn't that good. Yes, Brett Favre is playing like it's 1997, but they have flaws. You've heard the term "strength vs strength"? This one is "weakness vs weakness" - Denver has the league's worst run defense, and Green Bay has the worst rushing offense in football. That means Green Bay won't be able to capitalize on their opponent's soft spot, AND they're playing on the road? I'll take the home team. Maybe a Broncos win will ease the pain of a potential World Series sweep for Mile High fans.

Who will win: Denver (2)