Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Red Sox/Rockies: 2007 World Series preview

Well, here we are: the last series on the baseball calendar. The Red Sox came storming back from a 3 games to 1 deficit to earn an appearance in the Fall Classic. Meanwhile, the Rockies are hotter than any team in recent memory. However, the Rockies have had 8 off-days in a row. Does that mean they'll be rusty, and fall in their first ever World Series appearance? Time will tell.

Here's a position-by-position breakdown. Postseason totals are in parentheses.

Catcher: Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba (.320 batting average/1 home run/7 runs batted in) vs. Boston's Jason Varitek (.243/1/5)

Torrealba isn't bad with the bat as far as MLB catchers go. The Rockies pitching staff is performing well for the first time in what seems like forever, and he deserves a share of credit for that. However, Torrealba threw out only 15 of 76 would-be base stealers. Jacoby Ellsbury may be able to take steal some more if they can get on base in the right situations. Varitek is vital to the success of the Boston pitching staff. He is perhaps the most knowledgeable catcher in baseball. He has plenty of pop in his bat for the position he plays. With starting pitcher Tim Wakefield injured and off the playoff roster, it's highly likely that back-up catcher Doug Mirabelli won't start any games, making 'Tek that much more important.

Advantage: Boston

First Base: Todd Helton (.154 batting average/0 home runs/1 run bated in) vs. Boston's David Ortiz (.387/3/6)

Helton is still a solid hitter, one who's capable of batting over 300, hitting 25 home runs, and knocking in 100 runs. He just doesn't seem like the player he once was. For whatever reason, he hasn't played like a top 5 player in a while. His postseason struggles can't be too reassuring to Rockies fans. Then again, the team is 7-0, so they probably haven't thought about him too much. Ortiz and Manny Ramirez carried the Red Sox offense at times this October. Everything you look, it seems like at least one of them was on base. Ortiz is arguably the most feared crunch time hitter of his era, on the same level as the Yankees' Derek Jeter. Fans should watch his play at first base. He very seldom plays there during American League games, but will need to do so when the Sox travel to Colorado. With no designated hitter, that will mean either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkillis will be out of the lineup.

Advantage: Boston

Second Base: Colorado's Kazuo Matsui (.310 average/1 home run/8 runs batted in) vs. Dustin Pedroia (.286/1/6)

Matsui flopped pretty badly when he was with the New York Mets, prompting a trade to the Rockies. While he was unspectacular during the regular season, Matsui did steal 32 bases. During the postseason, Matsui has caught fire, and his a big grand slam vs. the Philies in the divisional around. He is also a key cog in the Rockies great defense. Pedroia hit the rookie wall in April, but hasn't fallen into a prolonged slump since. A victim of bad luck in the first few games vs. Cleveland, Pedroia turned it around quickly and emphatically. In games 5, 6 and 7, he just kept hitting. Pedroia also does a fine job turning the double play, and the Red Sox need for him to get on base for Ortiz and Ramirez.

Advantage: Boston

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (.179 batting average/1 home run/2 runs batted in) vs. Julio Lugo (.229/0/2)

The Rockies' young shortstop got off to a slow start, but ended up being one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. He hit close to .300, belted 24 home runs, and knocked in 99 runs. Tulowitzki is also sold with the glove, as he committed only 11 errors as a full-time player. Let's just say the Sox would take Tulowitzki over Lugo. Lugo was not the players the Red Sox thought they were getting. For some reason, the Boston front office was infatuated with Lugo, offering a contract that seemed far above his market value. The playoffs have not treated Lugo much better than the regular season did, and he collected just 5 hits in 25 at-bats in the League Championship Series vs. Cleveland. Also, Lugo made what could have been a catastrophic error on a routine pop-up. Then again, maybe he can salvage his season with a strong series.

Advantage: Colorado

Third Base: Garrett Atkins (.185 average/0 home runs/1 run batted in) vs. Mike Lowell (.333/1/11)

Both Atkins and Lowell are great hitting third basemen. They had very similar regular season numbers, with Lowell holding a slight edge in batting average and RBI, and Atkins hitting a few more homers. Lowell is hitting very well right now, and has been the number 5 hitter behind Ortiz and Ramirez that the Red Sox hoped JD Drew would be. Lowell makes opponents pay for pitching around the big sluggers. Plus, Lowell is the better defensive player.

Advantage: Boston

Outfield: Colorado's Matt Holliday (.286/4/7), Willy Taveras (.167/0/1) and Brad Hawpe (.304/0/2) vs. Boston's Manny Ramirez (.400/4/14), Jacoby Ellsbury (.222/0/1) and JD Drew (.306/1/9)

Holliday is a candidate for the National League's Most Valuable Player award. He is one of the game's best hitters. Taveras doesn't offer much pop in his bat, but has great speed, as he stole 33 bases in the regular season. Hawpe rounds out a very good Rockies outfield. Ramirez has been on fire this postseason, and he has a good track record in the World Series - he was MVP in 2004. Ellsbury was on Boston's bench, but Sox skipper Terry Francona finally pulled Coco Crisp, who looked awful in the Cleveland series. The Sox won't lose any speed, and Ellsbury is the center fielder of the future. Drew had an awful regular season. It's been a different story in the playoffs, however, and Drew cracked a grand slam in the first inning of game 6 against Cleveland. Some have called it "The $14 million grand slam". The Sox hope more are on the way.

Advantage: Colorado

Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester vs. Colorado's Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook.

Beckett has cemented his status as a fan favorite in the playoffs. The ALCS MVP has been dominant in three starts, and has Sox fans reminiscing about Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Schilling is arguable the best October pitcher of his era. The old timer still has it, as illustrated in his game 6 outing vs. Cleveland. "DiceK" is the X-factor. Boston fans waiting to see the $103 million pitcher may have to wait a season. In the meantime, Matsuzaka needs to at least keep Boston in the game. Lester would have been used as a long reliever in this series if not for the Tim Wakefield injury. He battles high pitch totals early on, so Boston would be ecstatic to have him last 5-6 quality innings.

Francis won 17 games, but had an ERA over 4. Oh, and he pitched in the National League. Doesn't sound particularly impressive. Still, Colorado will need for Francis to set the tone in Game 1. If Colorado loses Game 1, Jimenez's start will be crucial. While not particularly great in the regular season, he has impressed in the playoffs. Then again, who on the Rockies haven't been? Fogg was basically a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 5 during the season. Cook ended the season on the disabled list, but was activated prior to the Series. He could be an X-factor.

Advantage: Boston

Bullpen: This is one of the tightest categories in this series. Boston has reliable set-up men with Hideki Okajima, Mike Timlin and Manny Delcarmen. Javier Lopez is so-so against lefties, and Kyle Snyder should be regulated to mop-up duty. The Red Sox boast perhaps the best closer in baseball with Jonathan Papelbon. The Rockies' relief corps isn't comprised of slouches, either. In a stark contrast to year's past, Colorado's pitching is not a huge liability. The set-up men are a wash, and while Manny Corpas has been very good at closer, he is not Papelbon.

Advantage: Boston

Bench: Kevin Youkillis will start at first base when the games are at fenway, but will be stuck on the bench because the NL has a no-DH rule, meaning Ortiz will play first. Alex Cora has seen little action as of late. Backup catcher Doug Mirabelli may not make an appearance because Wakefield won't. Coco Crisp was benched due to ineffectiveness, but may still play a role. Bobby Kielty is a solid pinch-hitting option vs. lefties. Colorado's backup catcher Chris Iannetta is in the same boat as Mirabelli.Jamey Caroll is on the roster because of his flexibility. With their outfield, the Rockies won't need back-up outfielders until the late innings in Colorado.

Advantage: Boston

Prediction: Can the Rockies be stopped? Are they destined for their first World Series title? I think so much hinges on the first game. If Becket shuts down the Rockies bats and Boston wins, that could kill Colorado's morale. They will remember what it is like to lose. If you look at the starting pitching match-ups, the Sox are favorites. Plus, good pitching always beats good hitting, The 2004 St Louis Cardinals had a similar batting order to the one Colorado will feature, and they only mustered 12 runs in a 4-game sweep. The Rockies will make it a contest, but the Sox will prevail.

Boston in 6 games

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work.