Week 6 NFL Predictions

OK, now that's a lot better! My picks last week showed I at least know a little bit about pro football. Here's a little breakdown of my performance. You can verify that I'm not lying about Weeks 3 through 5 by going through past blogs, but you'll have to take my word that I'm not lying about the first two weeks. Come on: some of you out there know me. I'm trustworthy ... right?
*crickets chirping*

Weeks 1 - 5: 419 points out of a possible 618 (67.8%)
Weeks 3-5 : 218 points out of a possible 346 (63%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 5: 46 wins, 30 losses (60.5%)
Weeks 3 - 5: 26 wins, 18 losses (59.1%)

Anyhow, here are my Week 6 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 13 means I'm as sure as I can be.

1PM Games

Tennessee Titans (3-1, 2-0 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee beat Atlanta, 20-13; Tampa Bay lost to Indianapolis, 33-14.

Tennessee did not play well at all vs the Falcons last week, but they were able to come away with the win. Okay, so the Falcons are probably the dregs of the NFL, but the Titans are still a pretty good team. Although it's unlikely they'll overtake the Colts for the division title, they still have the early inside track on a wild card spot. Tampa Bay had their first sub par week since opening day. Even though running back Cadillac Williams is out for the year, Tampa should still be competent on offense. And while their defense didn't do much vs Indy last season, Tampa has a pretty solid track record vs mobile quarterbacks like Vince Young (Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, etc.). I know one is an AFC team and the other is an NFC team, but that doesn't always mean one outcome, does it?

Who will win: Tampa Bay (4)

Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota had the bye week; Chicago beat Green Bay, 27-20.

Minnesota has a formidable backfield with veteran Chester Taylor and rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. They also have a tremendous run defense, one which doesn't allow many yards to anyone. You know what they don't have? A competent quarterback. I don't care how banged up the Bears defense is, or who's playing QB for them. Of course, Brian Griese is still more competent than anyone Minnesota can send out there. They contained Green Bay QB Brett Favre last week. Plus, it's in Chicago.

Who will win: Chicago (6)

Houston Texans (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston beat Miami, 22-19; Jacksonville beat Kansas City, 17-7.

Houston will be without superstar wide receiver Andre Johnson for another week. Running back Ahman Green was sidelined the past two games with a bruised knee. Oh, and did I mention they'll be going up against a Jacksonville defense that has yielded only 10.2 points per contest? I know the Texans have a history of playing well vs Jacksonville, but that was then. This is now. Plus, are you about to argue with this man?

Who will win: Jacksonville (2)

Miami Dolphins (0-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (2-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Houston, 22-19; Cleveland lost to New England, 34-17.

OK, this much we know about Miami: they have someone named Cleo Lemon as their starting quarterback after starter Trent Green suffered a brutal concussion last Sunday. Running back Ronnie Brown is their only weapon. Their defense can't stop the run, and looks old and slow. They have a first-year head coach. Other than that, they're looking great! Surprisingly, plenty of good tickets are still available! If Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel once concocted schemes to slow down QB's such as Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, I think he'll be able to deal with Ms Cleo. I never thought I'd go this high on the Browns, but when in Rome ...

Who will win: Cleveland (11)

St Louis Rams (0-5, 0-2 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Arizona, 34-31; Baltimore beat San Francisco, 9-7.

Miami, meet your NFC counterpart! Their normal starting QB - Marc Bulger - has bruised ribs. Their best offensive player - running back Steven Jackson - is out with an injury. The Rams have given up the 4th most rushing yards in the league. Baltimore just seems to be treading water. They aren't particularly impressive, and rank in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. At least their defense only gave up 7 points last week. Then again, the offense only mustered 9 points. This is an AFC/NFC match up, and it's in Baltimore.

Who will win: Baltimore (10)

Washington Redskins (3-1, 1-0 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Washington beat Detroit, 34-3; Green Bay lost to Chicago, 27-20.

Washington is playing like they're back in the 1980's. Joe Gibbs is coaching, they have a competent quarterback, two quality running backs and a stingy defense. In the NFC - heck, in the NFL - this year, isn't that all you need? Green Bay had their first setback of the season last week vs the Bears, and it's unlikely they'll lost two straight at Lambeau Field. But hey, I'm like ex-Patriots coach Pete Carroll: "Feeling dangerous right now".

Who will win: Washington (1)

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati had the bye week; Kansas City lost to Jacksonville, 17-7

If playing god-awful defense was a crime, the Bengals would have more players added to the police blotter. If Baltimore didn't cough the ball up 6 times against Cincy in Week 1, they'd be looking at an 0-4 record. Running back Rudi Johnson might return this week, but it's not like he was on the verge of breaking Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record before he got hurt. I don't care that KC is tied for dead last in the NFL in rushing yards AND they've played 5 games, where some have only played 4. KC probably won't lose two in a row at home. If it's a shootout, Cincy has the advantage. If it's low-scoring KC should take it.

Who will win: Kansas City (3)

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia had the bye week; the Jets lost to the Giants, 35-24

Philadelphia was off last week, and you can be sure head coach Andy Reid utilized that extra time to come up with a brilliant game plan for the Jets. Well, he probably won't need a brilliant game plan, because the Jets D is porous. They've given up the 6th most rushing yards in the league, along with the 6th most passing yards. I think that means Eric Mangini's team is pretty consistent! Oh, and this just in: Jets QB Chad Pennington had one of his throws clocked at a speed of 12 miles per hour last week, a personal best for him. Philly needs this one to stay in the playoff race; the Jets just want to finish ahead of the woeful Bills and Dolphins.

Who will win: Philadelphia (9)

4PM Games

Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-0 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Carolina beat New Orleans, 16-13; Arizona lost to St Louis, 34-31.

Carolina is 3-0 on the road, and 0-2 at home. I shouldn't be surprised. The Panthers are consistently inconsistent. One week they can look like a playoff team, the next they look helpless. Starting QB Jake Delhomme is out for the season, and backup David Carr developed a sore back and may not start. If he can't play, coach John Fox has two options: start 44-year old Vinny
Testaverde or youngster Matt Moore. As promising as that sounds, neither will be adequately prepared to face a swarming Arizona defense. On offense, Kurt Warner may not be a big step down from Matt Leinart at QB.

Who will win: Arizona (5)

Oakland Raiders (2-2, 1-1 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Oakland had the bye week; San Diego beat Denver, 41-3

A big part of Oakland's resurgence has been their ground game, which is ranked 2nd in the NFL. Interestingly enough, their passing game is ranked 30th. Oakland is about as average as an NFL team can be. They've scored 102 points, and given up 100. They're 1-1 on the road, and 1-1 at home. Hey, mediocrity is a big step up for this franchise after the last four seasons. San Diego is another team that is impossible to predict. Are they the team who smacked around by the Patriots, Packers and Chiefs? Are they the team that went into Denver and destroyed the Broncos? Only time will tell. But Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson always torches the Oakland defense. It's possible the players may have finally bought into coach Norv Turner's scheme. The AFC West is wide open, making this game vital to both clubs.

Who will win: San Diego (12)

New England Patriots (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-0, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Cleveland, 34-17; Dallas beat Buffalo, 25-24.

As announcer Keith Jackson might proclaim, "Whoa nelly! We got a dandy of a gridiron match-up on our hands here!" New England is famous for jumping out to early leads; Dallas has been infamous this year for falling into an early hole. It's highly likely the Patriots will use the pass to set up their running game. They could come out in 4 and 5-receiver sets, to try to take advantage of a suspect Dallas secondary. Safety Roy Williams is a big liability in coverage, so look for Wes Welker and/or Ben Watson to have a big game. If Buffalo's defense gave Dallas QB Tony Romo that much trouble last week, just imagine what Bill Belichick has in mind for him. This will be a close game, but New England just has too much firepower. *Note to Jets coach Eric 'I squeal like a pig' Mangini, commissioner Goodell and the majority of the "lame-stream" media: Don't give the Patriots any extra motivation next time. Do you see what you've done, with all the carnage they've wrecked? They were a talented team with a lot of pride, not to mention respect for their head coach. If everyone left well enough alone, there wouldn't have been a problem. Now, the Patriots are determined to humiliate everyone in their path. I hope you're all happy.

Who will win: New England (13)

Sunday Night Game

New Orleans Saints (0-4, 0-2 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans lost to Carolina, 16-13; Seattle lost to Pittsburgh, 21-0.

I'm sorry, New Orleans, but you've killed me too many times this season. It's clear now that 2006 was a fluke. No, I'm not saying QB Drew Brees is overrated, or that Reggie Bush won't be a good pro, or that there was a reason Marques Colston was a 7th round pick. All I'm saying is that the Saints rode an emotional high last season, and other players on the team overachieved. Additionally, teams have a year of Sean Payton's offense on film now, so some wrinkles aren't working as well as last season. Opposing safeties are playing deep because they think their front 7 can stop the Saints running game (which they have been), so the big play opportunities aren't really there. The defense - not exactly the '85 Bears last year - isn't getting the job done this year, either. Seattle is always tough to beat at home. They are too good to have two bad weeks in a row.

Who will win: Seattle (8)

Monday Night Game

New York Giants (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: The Giants lost to the NY Jets, 35-24; Atlanta lost to Tennessee, 20-13.

After a rough start, the Giants are riding a 3-game winning streak. Considering the state of the NFC, this team - as many flaws as it has - may be able to make some noise. Atlanta QB Joey Harrington has been sacked 17 times, and struggled last week. I've tried to defend Harrington for the last five years (mainly because of his dapper first name), but it's time I admit he'll never be anything better than mediocre ... if he's lucky.

Who will win: New York (7)