Monday, January 7, 2008

The NFL Divisional Playoffs

The AFC Match-Ups

The Jacksonville Jaguars at the New England Patriots, 8 PM on Saturday, CBS
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. New England was 16-0, 8-0 at home.
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh, 31-29 in the Wild Card round. New England had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is now 5-5. New England is 19-12.
Previous postseason history: New England holds a 2 games to 1 advantage over Jacksonville in the playoffs.

Jacksonville has to be thankful to still be alive in this postseason. The Jaguars nearly blew a huge lead on the road against Pittsburgh. The good news? They ARE still alive. The bad news? They have to play the 16-0 Patriots on their home turf. Let's face facts: the Jaguars needed a last minute field goal to beat a Steelers team that was what they had been for all but one of the previous 20 years: frauds. The majority loves Jacksonville, while that same majority loathes the Patriots. Accordingly, some supposed 'experts' have predicted a Jacksonville shocker. Please. Better Quarterback: advantage New England. Better coach: advantage New England. Home field: advantage New England. Luxury of the bye week? You guessed it: New England. Look, Jacksonville is a scary team. They usually don't turn the ball over, they have a tremendous running game, and a stifling defense. Unfortunately for them, they are running into a buzzsaw. New England is the team of the new millennium, and they are having the best season of the new millennium. Conditions should be mild, so I would look for Tom Brady to dissect the Jacksonville defense, utilizing quick, short passes to neutralize the Jaguars' pass rush. When you score an NFL record 589 points in the regular season, you don't expect to be shut down. The Patriots will do whatever they have to do. I'd look for situational back Kevin Faulk to play a large role on draws, screens and check-down passes. On defense, New England tries to take away two or three things that the opposing offense loves to do. In this game, that means the Patriots will put 8 defenders in the box, and force a solid David Garrard and his pedestrian group of receivers to win the game for them. Sorry, but that just won't happen. They don't have the weapons to win a shootout, which is what they will be forced into.

Final Score: New England 31, Jacksonville 20

The San Diego Chargers at the Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: San Diego was 11-5, 4-4 on the road. Indianapolis was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: San Diego beat Tennessee, 17-6 in the Wild Card round. Indianapolis had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: San Diego is now 8-13. Indianapolis is 17-16.
Previous postseason history: Indianapolis holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over San Diego in the playoffs.

The Chargers just beat a pretty punch-less Tennessee Titans. Sure, Tennessee has a strong defense, but their offense is one of the most anemic in football. I think it's safe to say no one was overly impressed with that game. How can anyone like San Diego's chances in this game? For one thing, their all-world tight end - Antonio Gates - is doubtful to play. A huge blow, since the tight end can be key in exposing the soft spots in a Cover 2 defense (which the Colts often employ). Secondly, it's coach Norv Turner and QB Phillip Rivers on the road in a hostile environment in a big playoff game. 'Nuff said there. Additionally, the Colts are no longer pushovers on defense, as evidenced by the 262 points they allowed in 2007, the lowest in all of football. Just to hammer it home, the Colts are expecting future hall of fame receiver Marvin Harrison back for this week. San Diego beat Indianapolis in Week 10 for a few reasons: 1.) Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions; 2.) Dallas Clark did not play; 3.) Marvin Harrison did not play; 4.) the ultra clutch Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot 29-yard field goal in the final minute and 5.) Indianapolis allowed two returns for touchdowns. How many of those are likely to happen this time around? Oh, and did I mention the Colts only lost by TWO POINTS?? This could be a rout.

Final Score: Indianapolis 34, San Diego 13

The NFC Match-Ups

The Seattle Seahawks at the Green Bay Packers, 4:30 on Saturday, FOX
Regular season records: Seattle was 10-6, 3-5 on the road. Green Bay was 13-3, 7-1 at home.
Last Week: Seattle beat Washington, 35-14 in the Wild Card round. Green Bay had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Seattle is now 7-9. Green Bay is 24-14.
Previous postseason history: Green Bay holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over Seattle in the playoffs.

Seattle kind of sleep walked through the early portion of the 2007 season. Then, starting with a Monday Night blowout of the woeful San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks started to play much better football. Yes, they pounded on some pretty lousy teams, but that's what you have to do. Seattle has relied more heavily than ever on Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, and they have responded. Green Bay is enjoying probably their best season since they went to Super Bowl XXXII following the 1997 campaign. Brett Favre is playing like a three-time league MVP, they Pack have a running game, and young, talented receivers. The defense is solid as well, allowing only 18.2 points per game, which tied for 6th in the NFL with their opponents in this game. The one thing Green Bay lacks? Playoff experience. Outside of Favre, the majority of the team is young and inexperienced, including head coach Mike McCarthy. You know Seattle would love nothing more than to go into Green Bay and stun the Packers, especially coach Mike Holmgren, who helped mold Favre into a future hall of famer. All I know is this: if Green Bay is down by at least 7 in the 4th quarter, Favre will try to throw the team on his shoulders. His skills are not what they once were, and I could see Seattle getting a back-breaking turnover.

Final Score: Seattle 27, Green Bay 21

The New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 on Sunday, FOX
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road. Dallas was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: New York beat Tampa Bay, 24-14 in the Wild Card round. Dallas had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is now 17-23. Dallas is 32-23.
Previous postseason history: None

New York played one of their best games of the season vs Tampa Bay last weekend. The pass rush harassed Bucs QB Jeff Garcia all game long, and that helped limit Tampa to only 14 points. On offense, New York QB Eli Manning played mistake-free football (never a given for him) and the running game got the job done. All of a sudden, some prognosticators are saying the Giants will go into Big D and upset the Cowboys. Not me. Dallas has way too much firepower on offense. Yes, Dallas has lost 2 of their last 3 games and yes, they really haven't played well against a solid opponent since their Week 13 victory over the Packers. There's no denying that teams want to be playing their best football of the season RIGHT NOW. Maybe the Cowboys DID peak too early for the second straight season. But come on: can you really take the dynamic duo of Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin to win back to back ROAD playoff games? Me either. Dallas will jump out to an early lead, and then hold off a frantic Giants rally late.

Final Score: Dallas 30, New York 22



Bruce & Brett both say New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay & Dallas


Last Week: 2-2

Brett & Bruce were both 2-2 as well

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Wild Card Weekend in the NFL (NFC Match Ups)

The Washington Redskins at the Seattle Seahawks, 4:30 on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Washington was 9-7, 4-4 on the road; Seattle was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 14, 2006, Washington lost to Seattle in a divisional playoff game, 20-10. On January 14, 2007, Seattle lost to Chicago in a divisional playoff game, 27-24.
All-time record in the postseason: Washington is 23-16. Seattle is 6-9.

While Washington is thankful they have young Jason Campbell at quarterback for the future, they must be just as thankful that they have veteran Todd Collins in the interim. After going a decade without starting a single NFL game, the pride of Walpole, MA has guided the 'Skins back from the cusp of elimination. Running back Clinton Portis, once thought to be fragile, has turned into a workhorse. Santana Moss is once again a dynamic part of the offense, and H back Chris Cooley continues to be a reliable target. Though they've allowed some high point totals this season, Washington has had a fairly stingy defense. While giving up only 19 points per contest, the unit boasts a top 5 rushing defense.

Over the second half of the season, Seattle played their most consistent football since their Super Bowl run two years ago. Matt Hasselbeck had another fine season at quarterback, and he needed to, because running back Shaun Alexander was banged up and/or ineffective for most of the season. The former MVP averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a full yard less than his back up - Maruice Morris. The receiving corps is above average, with Bobby Engram leading the way with 94 catches. The real surprise has been the play of the Seahawks defense. The outside pass rush has been especially strong, as Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson have combined for 24 of the unit's 45 sacks.

The Bottom Line: Washington has been playing on an emotional high since the death of star safety Sean Taylor. Collins has played like a pro bowler, and the rest of the team has played at an equally high level. Still, Seattle has to be considered the favorite in this game. Since Qwest Field opened, the Seahawks have enjoyed arguably the best homefield advantage in the NFL. They lost one 1 game at home during the regular season, and coach Mike Holmgren always saves his best gameplans for the playoffs. Washington's Joe Gibbs is no slouch either, but Seattle clearly has the more talented team. Seattle will look to shut down Washington's ground attack, then look to see if Collins and his receivers can beat them. I don't see that happening. The Redskin's hot streak - and their season - should come to an end.

Final Score: Seattle 23, Washington 10

The New York Giants at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM on Sunday, Fox
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road; Tampa Bay was 9-7, 6-2 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2007, New York lost to Philadelphia in a Wild Card round game, 23-20. On January 7, 2006, Tampa Bay lost to Washington, 17-10.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is 16-23. Tampa Bay is 6-8.

The G-Men will look to win their first playoff game since they shut out the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Title Game. Eli Manning has been a classic "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" this season. He will need to play well in the face of the Tampa Bay blitz. When healthy, Brandon Jacobs has been a throwback type, looking to delver a blow, rather than running around defenders. The 6' 5" Plaxico Burress has created mismatches for opposing secondaries all season long. Defensively, New York relies on pressuring the passer, and they lead the NFL with 53 QB takedowns. A top 10 rushing defense doesn't hurt either.

Tampa Bay won their division title, but that doesn't say all that much, as the other 3 NFC South teams had a combined record of 18-30. The Buccaneers aren't particularly explosive on offense, but QB Jeff Garcia has done what coach John Gruden brought him in to do: provide leadership, not make mistakes, and hit the occasional big play when it's there. Garcia was born to play in the west coast offense, and is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay. In the backfield, the surprising play of Earnest Graham has helped the team overcome the season ending injury of Cadillac Williams. The 36 year old legs of Joey Galloway have continued to serve him well, as he topped 1,000 yards receiving again. It's no mystery what the Giants will primarily see from the Tampa Bay defense: heavy doses of the Cover 2. Their bread and butter has helped Tampa give up only 171 passing yards per game, the lowest total in the NFL.

The Bottom Line: If the good Eli Manning shows up, the Giants will be in excellent shape. However, it's more likely that the bad one will show up. You know: the one who folds like a cheap suit when pressured, throws off his back foot, and makes generally awful decisions. The pressure is also on Jacobs and the New York ground attack. They need to keep the offense out of 3rd and long situations. For Tampa Bay, they just need to keep the game close until late. The Bucs will look to neutralize the Giants pass rush by calling draws and screens, and throwing off 3 step drops. Tampa has the better coach, quarterback and they are playing at home. Barring a couple of catastrophic mistakes, Tampa should advance to the next round.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 17, New York 10


Picks for the weekend:

Brett says Washington, Jacksonville, New York & Tennessee
Bruce says Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay & San Diego

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Wild Card Weekend in the NFL

AFC Match Ups

The Jacksonville Jaguars at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 8 PM on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. Pittsburgh was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2006, Jacksonville lost a Wild Card game to New England, 28-3. On February 5, 2006, Pittsburgh beat Seattle, 21-10 in Super Bowl XL.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is 4-5. Pittsburgh is 28-18.

Jacksonville is clearly the sexy team heading into the playoffs. In many circles, they - not the Indianapolis Colts - are believed to be the team with the best shot at upsetting the Patriots. It's easy to see why. At quarterback, David Garrard threw only 3 interceptions in 325 attempts, compared to 18 touchdowns. In the backfield, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have combined for 1,970 yards on the ground, to go along with 14 TD's. On defense, Jacksonville is pretty stingy, giving up only 19 points per game, and picking off 20 passes so far.

Pittsburgh is in a curious position. They are not playing their best football heading into the playoffs. Beginning with their Week 14 loss to the Patriots, the Steelers lost 3 of their final 4 games. A big part of postseason football is a strong running game, and Pittsburgh was dealt a huge blow when star back Willie Parker was lost for the season with an injury. At least QB Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from a nightmare 2006 season. The pressure will be on him and the receivers to make big plays. On defense, Pittsburgh had a solid year statistically. They allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per contest, to go along with the 3rd fewest rushing yards. Overall, Pittsburgh gave up only 16.8 points per game.

Bottom Line: This is a tough game to call. Jacksonville is a young, talented, physical and athletic team. Then again, they are inexperienced, and don't have great receivers. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but don't have a terrific running game anymore. Plus, Jacksonville already went into Pittsburgh and won this season. Still, I think Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will make the necessary adjustments, and Pittsburgh's offense will make enough big plays to win.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 21

The Tennessee Titans at the San Diego Chargers, 4:30 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: Tennessee was 10-6, 5-3 on the road. San Diego was 11-5, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: Tennessee lost a Wild Card game to New England, 17-14, on January 10, 2004. San Diego lost a divisional playoff game to New England, 24-21, on January 14, 2007.
All-Time Record in the postseason: Tennessee is 14-17. San Diego is 7-13.

Early in the 2007 season, the Titans were thought to be the 3rd best team in the AFC, behind only the Patriots and Colts. However, that is no longer the case. Second year quarterback Vince Young hasn't developed, and the Titans are near the bottom of the league in nearly every major passing category. It's not like you can blame all of that on Young though. Look at who he's throwing to: Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife, Eric Moulds and Brandon Jones were his top 5 receivers. They will need to step up. Thankfully, LenDale White has given Tennessee a top 5 running game to take the pressure off of Young. Defensively, the Titans are in the league's top 10 in passing yardage, rushing yardage, points allowed and sacks recorded. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is a monster in the middle, and will need a big game if the Titans are to stop the Chargers' running game.

San Diego had a nightmare start to their season. They lost 3 of their first 4, LaDainian Tomlinson looked mortal, and no one seemed to be buying into new coach Norv Turner's philosophy. Since then, the Chargers are 10-2, LT looks like LT, and they're contenders again. QB Phillip Rivers didn't duplicate the success of his 2006 Pro Bowl season, but played at an acceptable level. At the wide receiver position, midseason pick up Chris Chambers has helped, but more is needed. While San Diego only gave up an average of 17.8 points per game, they are susceptible to a strong running game. The emergence of Antonio Cromartie helped the Chargers lead the NFL in interceptions with 30.

Bottom Line: It's all about setting the tempo in this game. If the Chargers break out to a quick double digit lead, that won't allow the Titans to pound the ball as much as they want. QB Vince Young and the passing game would be forced to carry the load, and that hasn't been a good thing recently. San Diego thrives on pressuring quarterbacks into sacks and interceptions. This game will be a big test for Chargers coach Norv Turner, who hasn't had a lot of postseason exposure. I just don't think the Titans have enough offensive firepower to win.

Final score: San Diego 23, Tennessee 17

Tomorrow: NFC Match Ups