Week 7 in the NFL

Last week was decent for me. I went 9-4, and got 71 out of a possible 91 points. Like I said in last week's blog, I don't have a record of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2. The breakdown is as follows:

Weeks 1 - 6: 490 points out of a possible 709 (69.1%)
Weeks 3-6 : 289 points out of a possible 437 (66.1%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 6: 55 wins, 34 losses (61.8%)
Weeks 3 - 6: 37 wins, 22 losses (62.7%)

Anyhow, here are my Week 7 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.

1PM Games

Tennessee Titans (3-2, 2-1 on the road) at Houston Texans (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee lost to Tampa Bay, 13-10; Houston lost to Jacksonville, 37-17.

Tennessee has held opponents to a league-low 63.8 rushing yards per game, thanks in large part to monster defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Hey, when he's not stomping on people's faces, this guy is pretty good! The big question is if Titans Quarterback Vince Young can suit up. You know he's still feeling slighted because Houston didn't take their native son in the 2006 draft. Even if he doesn't play, Kerry Collins should be able to get the job done. The Texans' 29th ranked rushing attack shouldn't be a problem for the Titans. Will Texans QB Matt Schaub - without stud wide receiver Andre Johnson - be able to win it for Houston? I don't think so, and neither should you,

Who will win: Tennessee (5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Detroit Lions (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Tennessee, 13-10; Detroit had the bye week

Tampa Bay could either be the 3rd best team in the NFC (behind Dallas and Green Bay), or they could be a big pretender. Their fans point to the strong play of QB Jeff Garcia and a stout defense. Their critics say they haven't defeated any good teams yet. This week probably won't answer many questions, as no one knows what to make of Detroit either. The Lions are in the same boat as Tampa Bay. Detroit QB John Kitna has had a good season so far, but the Lions have given up 28 sacks, the most in football. Plus, they are 31st in the league in rushing yards per game. Tampa could feast on a one-dimensional offense.

Who will win: Tampa Bay (7)

New England Patriots (6-0, 3-0 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-6, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Dallas, 48-27; Miami lost to Cleveland, 41-31.

Dallas coach Wade Phillips said he thought it would be a good idea to focus on stopping the run, and 'forcing' Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat them last week. To recap: he wanted one of the best quarterbacks of all-time to beat him. Well, he got his wish. Maybe first-year Miami coach Cam Cameron and his team can do better. Off-topic: is his full name 'Cameron Cameron'? If so, why didn't his parents think about that for an extra minute?? Anyway, Miami was struggling mightily in every facet of the game, and dealt away wide receiver Chris Chambers, their best downfield threat. Sounds like they're planning for 2008 earlier than most. I don't care that the Patriots seem cursed in Miami: the Dolphins are arguably the league's worst team; the Patriots are arguably the best.

Who will win: New England (14)

Atlanta Falcons (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (1-4, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta lost to New York Giants, 31-10; New Orleans beat Seattle, 28-17.

Good God, I don't even want to talk about this game. Atlanta is putrid. They would be the worst team in the NFC if not for the St Louis Rams. They've decided to go with Byron Leftwich to replace Joey Harrington at QB. The Saints actually showed signs of life last week by putting together a nice win AT Seattle. Running back Reggie Bush finally decided to stop dancing so much in the backfield. New Orleans got a big play from special teams, and the defense was decent. Plus, they're playing at home. Please, just let me move on ...

Who will win: New Orleans (10)

San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 1-1 on the road) at New York Giants (4-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco had the bye week; New York beat Atlanta, 31-10.

For these two teams, the glory days of the 1980's are long gone. At least the Giants are playing like a contender. After winning their first two games, the 49ers have stumbled badly. The offense, which was supposed the recapture those glory days, has been anemic. They're ranked 31st in the NFL in points per game. San Francisco has gone a different path, starting off 0-2 before reeling off 4 wins in a row. They have the 6th ranked offense in football, and are great at pressuring the other teams's quarterback. Look for the G-Men to add to their league-leading 22 sacks.

Who will win: New York (9)

Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (1-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore beat St Louis, 22-3; Buffalo had the bye week

In what is shaping up to be "Show Me Something Weekend" in the NFL, Baltimore joins the party. The wins haven't been that impressive, but they are 4-2, and should be in the playoff mix. The defense is back to old form, but shutdown cornerbacK Chris McCallister is out with an injury. Buffalo hasn't done much offensively, due in large part to the disappearing act of wide receiver Lee Evans. This might be his breakout week, especially with McCallister out. Another subplot is the fact that former Bills running back Wills McGahee returns to Buffalo as a member of the Ravens. Let's just say he was not the biggest fan of the city of Buffalo. Baltimore has flaws; don't expect Buffalo to be able to expose them.

Who will win: Baltimore (6)

Arizona Cardinals (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (3-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona lost to Carolina, 25-10; Washington lost to Green Bay, 17-14

Arizona lost to a team that had a 43-year old starting quarterback (Vinny Testaverde) last Sunday. They also are down to their third-string quarterback. It's too bad, because Arizona was making strides. They still may end up with a respectable record, but Washington has looked good in 2007. The 'Skins are really 2 or 3 plays away from being 5-0. Washington still has two good running backs, a calm quarterback, and a formidable defense. If the predictability of the offense doesn't do them in, they should be just fine.

Who will win: Washington (11)

4PM Games

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Kansas City beat Cincinnati, 27-20; Oakland lost to San Diego, 28-14

Maybe this won't be a rebuilding season for Kansas City after all. Despite unspectacular play from the quarterback position and from workhorse running back Larry Johnson, the Chiefs lead the AFC West. One big reason is a defense that has registered 19 sacks, second most in the NFL. Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper is not nearly as mobile as he once was, so he could become a sitting target. Plus, Johnson ran the ball well last week against the Bengals, and the Raiders have the league's 28th ranked rushing defense. When it doubt, bet against the Raiders.

Who will win: Kansas City (4)

New York Jets (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: New York lost to Philadelphia, 16-9; Cincinnati lost to Kansas City, 27-20

Before the season started, this was viewed as a match-up of potential playoff teams. Now, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat. When he arrived for the 2003 season, he was supposed to be the savior of the franchise. However, undisciplined players and an erratic defense hasn't been a recipe for success. The Jets haven't looked good all season. They over-achieved big time last year, and expectations may have been too high for the 2007 edition. When two awful teams get together, I go with the one with the better quarterback and/or the home field advantage. Cincinnati has both.

Who will win: Cincinnati (8)

Chicago Bears (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Chicago lost to Minnesota, 34-31; Philadelphia beat New York Jets, 16-9

Chicago gave up 311 rushing yards last week vs the Vikings. Philadelphia isn't exactly a smash mouth football team, but the Bears aren't exactly stopping people from passing the ball either. Both teams were expected to contend for the postseason before the year started, but the loser will find it nearly impossible to make it. I'll take the home team in this one.

Who will win: Philadelphia (3)

St Louis Rams (0-6, 0-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Baltimore, 22-3; Seattle beat New Orleans, 28-17

The Rams are just horrendous this year. They have 4 offensive lineman out for the season with injuries, running back Steven Jackson is out, and QB Marc Bulger will be back this week after sitting out with 2 broken ribs. Needless to say, Rams coach Scott Linehan may be on the hot seat, and St Louis is by far the worst team in the NFC, maybe the worst in all of football. The Seahawks looked bad in their last two games. I wouldn't bank on them losing back-to-back home games.

Who will win: Seattle (13)

Minnesota Vikings (2-3, 1-2 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas lost to New England, 48-27; Minnesota beat Chicago, 34-31

I know we went over this, but Dallas coach Wade Phillips really did want Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat him last week. He set southerners back 15 years. Anyway, he should duplicate the game plan from last week because this time, he'll have Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson to worry about. Let's just say he's a far cry from Brady. However, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson may be the real deal. He tore through the Bears for 224 yards last week, so he should be Dallas' primary concern. The Cowboys won't lose two in a row at home.

Who will win: Dallas (12)

Sunday Night Game

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, 1-1 on the road) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 1-2 at home)
Last week: Both teams had the bye week

Once you get past the Patriots and Colts, the Steelers have to be considered the third best team in the conference. QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing better than he has since his rookie season. He and coach Mike Tomlin seem to be on the same page, and the offense is 5th in the league in points per game, and 2nd in rushing. Pitt also has the stingiest defense in football. So why am I picking Denver in this game? Well, they're a home underdog, and Broncos coach Mike Shanahan had the bye week to look for flaws in the Steel Curtain. OK, I should pick Pittsburgh, but this is my "Upset Special of the Week".

Who will win: Denver (2)

Monday Night Game

Indianapolis Colts (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis had the bye week; Jacksonville beat Houston, 37-17

Jacksonville is one of only 4 teams - the others being New England, San Diego and Pittsburgh - that have a consistent history of giving the Colts offense problems. Jacksonville has a big, fast defense, and they are capable of stuffing the run and pressuring Colts QB Peyton Manning. Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew is due for a breakout game. This is a prime-time game in Jacksonville, so you can call this my "Upset Special of the Week, part deux"

Who will win: Jacksonville (1)