Week 9 in the NFL

After a few nice weeks, I had a disappointing performance last weekend. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-8. The breakdown is as follows:

Weeks 1 - 8 : 645 points out of a possible 905 (71.3%)
Weeks 3 - 8 : 444 points out of a possible 633 (70.1%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 8: 71 wins, 44 losses (61.7%)
Weeks 3 - 8: 53 wins, 32 losses (62.4%)

Anyhow, here are my Week 9 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.


1PM Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 1-3 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona had the bye week; Tampa Bay lost to Jacksonville, 24-23.

Arizona started off strong, but has since faltered. If they want to remain in contention for the NFC West title, a win this week is critical. Then again, with linebacker Karlos Dansby out, Monty Beisel will start. Cardinals fans should be thinking what Patriots fans thought in 2005: "we're f@@ked". Tampa Bay is too good of a a team to suffer back-to-back home losses, especially against Arizona.

Who will win: Tampa Bay (13)

Denver Broncos (3-4, 1-1 on the road) at Detroit Lions (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Green Bay, 19-13; Detroit beat Chicago, 16-7.

The Broncos just aren't the team everyone thought they would be. They're an unimpressive 2-3 in Denver, where they used to enjoy arguable the best home field advantage in football. This week, they take their sorry act to Detroit, which may be the 3rd or 4th best team in the NFC. The Lions have been particularly impressive at home. I'd look for Lions coach Mike Martz to feature running back Kevin Jones prominently, as Detroit will look to capitalize on Denver's 32nd ranked rushing defense. If the Lions do go to their passing attack, they'll likely pick on all-pro cornerback Champ Bailey, who's banged up.

Who will win: Detroit (1)

Carolina Panthers (4-3, 4-0 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (5-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Carolina lost to Indianapolis, 31-7; Tennessee beat Oakland, 13-9.

Carolina hasn't been consistent since they won the NFC Title after the 2003 season. So it's not really surprising that they're undefeated on the road, but winless at home. Tennessee has the league's stingiest run stopping unit, yielding only 64 rushing yards per game. That means quarterback David Carr will be forced to make plays. I don't think that's going to happen. Additionally, the Titans are at home, and it's an AFC/NFC match up.

Who will win: Tennessee (10)

Green Bay Packers (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2. 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Denver, 19-13; Kansas City had the bye week.

This one is a contest between two of the NFL's better defenses. The Packers could very well be the class of the NFC, while the surprising Chiefs are leading the AFC West. 2007 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for them. I should pick the Packers, but Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in football at Arrowhead Stadium. It's and AFC/NFC game, and Green Bay has to slip up at least 2 or 3 more times this season - this looks like it could be one of those weeks.

Who will win: Kansas City (4)

San Diego Chargers (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: San Diego beat Houston, 35-10; Minnesota lost to Philadelphia, 23-16.

San Diego has ripped off 3 straight impressive wins after a woeful start. There is, however, the distinct possibility that the Vikings' stout run defense could bottle up Chargers all-pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson. It's games like this one that led to the team acquiring wide receiver Chris Chambers in a trade. I'd look for him and tight end Antonio Gates to have a big day, as their should be favorable match ups against Minnesota's secondary, who are giving up 288 yards passing per contest.

Who will win: San Diego (12)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2, 3-0 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Tampa Bay, 24-23; New Orleans beat San Francisco, 31-10.

Jacksonville squeaked by last week. Back-up QB Quinn Gray has not looked good at all, but that's to be expected. The Jaguars will need to depend on their running game and defense more than usual. New Orleans has revived their season after all the pundits left them for dead. I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about the Saints in this one.

Who will win: New Orleans (8)

San Francisco 49ers (2-5, 1-2 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 1-2 at home)
Last Week San Francisco lost to New Orleans, 31-10; Atlanta had the bye week.

*Warning - Cover your ears, Patriots haters* At this rate, New England could very well end up with a top 10 draft pick in 2008. The trade - made between the two teams in last April's NFL Draft - sets up New England nicely, and gives 49ers fans heartache. Anyway, the 49ers look helpless. They have one of the league's worst defenses, and the offense isn't reminding anyone of the glory days. Atlanta won't win any more than 5 games this year, but this should be one of them.

Who will win: Atlanta (2)

Washington Redskins (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-7, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Washington lost to New England, 52-7; New York lost to Buffalo, 13-3.

Washington suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history last Sunday. Still, they're a solid team, and it's unlikely that they'll flop two weeks in a row. The Jets are planning for 2008, as evidenced by their decision to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Running back Thomas Jones has been a disappointment, the defense has looked soft, and coach Eric Mangini doesn't look like a "Mangenius" anymore.

Who will win: Washington (11)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5, 0-3 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (3-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh, 24-13; Buffalo beat New York, 13-3.

Cincinnati is back to it's mid-1990's form, everyone! The team has a few stars, but is still underachieving big-time. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis' seat isn't hot - it's blistering. The Bengals need this game to save face. Buffalo has won 3 of it's past 4 games, but I wouldn't trust Bills QB JP Losman to make enough good decisions to lead his team to victory.

Who will win: Cincinnati (9)

4PM Games

Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (4-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Seattle had the bye week; Cleveland beat St Louis, 27-20.

Seattle hasn't been overly impressive this season. Then again, that's 95% of NFL teams in 2007. Running back Shaun Alexander used to be dominant, but he seems to be on the decline. If Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren is the offensive genius he thinks he is, then he should have a good game plan coming off a bye week. Cleveland has been one of the NFL's surprise team. All of their young offensive talent has blossomed simultaneously. Their defense is giving up an average of 29 points per game, and the offense is putting up 28 points per game. Translation: they're usually a fun team to watch. Seattle is due for an all-around strong effort, and this could be their week.

Who will win: Seattle (5)

New England Patriots (8-0, 4-0 on the road) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Washington, 52-7; Indianapolis beat Carolina, 31-7.

The Patriots have been on fire for a longer duration than any team in recent NFL history. QB Tom Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss and the offense are on all pace to break records. This is the game the Patriots have been planning for since last January, when they lost the AFC title game in Indianapolis. The Colts are flying under the radar, which isn't easy when you're the undefeated, reigning Super Bowl Champions. In any other season, they would widely be considered the best team in football. This is the first time the Colts are home underdogs since Tony Dungy took over as coach in 2002. The Colts defense has improved, but I think they'll have their hands full with the Patriots arsenal. If New England protects the ball and holds Indy under 30 points, they should escape with the win. Plus, Colts receiver Marvin Harrison likely won't play. On the other hand, my reliable source - we'll call him "BM" - says it's just a case of gamesmanship, and Indy is trying to "psyche out" the Patriots. We shall see.

Who will win: New England (14)

Houston Texans (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-5, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Houston lost to San Diego, 35-10; Oakland lost to Tennessee, 13-9.

I'm surprised people aren't more excited for this game than the Pats/Colts tilt! All kidding aside, re-located New England and Indianapolis fans are hoping there is a small turnout for this one, so the game will be blacked out. That way, the Patriots/Colts game will be nationwide. With the way these two teams have played, can you blame them? Anyway, the Raiders are due for a win. Just remember: I didn't say it would be pretty.

Who will win: Oakland (3)

Sunday Night Game

Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Dallas had the bye week; Philadelphia beat Minnesota, 23-16.

Dallas is probably the best the NFC has to offer. The Cowboys have the conference's top rated offense and defense, and should be well-rested after a week off. Still, they should not take the Eagles lightly. The Eagles would like nothing better than to upset Dallas, and vault themselves back into the NFC playoff picture. You have to wonder if coach Any Reid's off-field problems effected the preparation of this team. Then again, Philly could rally around their leader, and put together a strong performance. I just think Dallas will get enough big plays on offense to pull out the victory.

Who will win: Dallas (6)

Monday Night Game

Baltimore Ravens (4-3, 1-3 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore had the bye week; Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati, 24-13.

Baltimore is mediocre at best, and their defense finally seems fed up with the offense's anemic performances. Still, there's the old saying, "if you live in a glass house, don't throw stones". That applies here because Baltimore's defense is not performing up to it's own standards. The fact that shutdown corner back Chris McAllister is unlikely to play doesn't help matters. At least QB Steve McNair is set to return this week, but he's a shell of his former self. I'd look for Pittsburgh to pound the ball early, and hit a long pass or two. Plus, the Steelers have the stingiest defense in football, and the game is at their place.

Who will win: Pittsburgh (7)