Last week was another solid week for me. I went 9-4 for the second week in a row, and got 88 out of a possible 105 points. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-7. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 7 : 578 points out of a possible 814 (71%)
Weeks 3 - 7 : 377 points out of a possible 542 (69.6%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 7: 64 wins, 38 losses (69.6%)
Weeks 3 - 7: 46 wins, 26 losses (63.9%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 8 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 13 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Detroit Lions (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Tampa Bay, 23-16; Chicago beat Philadelphia, 19-16.
Detroit may be a legitimate playoff team. At worst, they are the second best team in the NFC North behind the Green Bay Packers. The way to beat the Bears is to pound the football offensively. That isn't a strength of Detroit's, as they have the league's 27th ranked rushing offense. Detroit beat Chicago in Week 4 because they set an NFL record for fourth quarter points with 34. Chicago's defense is a little healthier this time around, and there is no way Detroit will beat Chicago twice in the same season.
Who will win: Chicago (5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Pittsburgh lost to Denver, 31-28; Cincinnati beat New York Jets, 38-31.
Pittsburgh entered last week's contest vs Denver with one of the best rushing offenses in football. Denver had great difficulty stopping the run going into the game. For some reason, the Steelers opted to emphasize throwing the football, instead of attacking an obvious weakness. This week, Cincy's run defense is weak as well, so I wouldn't expect Pittsburgh to pass up the opportunity to smash their heated division rival in the mouth. The Bengals have to be considered one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, and head coach Marvin Lewis will need more than a win against the woeful Jets if he wants to keep his job.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (8)
Indianapolis Colts (6-0, 3-0 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-2, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis beat Jacksonville, 29-7; Carolina had the bye week.
I have a confession to make: I was hoping against hope that the Colts would slip up against Jacksonville. I should have known better. The Patriots are getting all the publicity, but the Colts are quietly playing like defending Super Bowl champions. Their only Achilles's heel was their run defense in the past, but they're at least competent in that area now. This will be a nice little tune-up for their showdown vs the Patriots next Sunday. Panthers coach John Fox is rumored to be toying with the idea of platooning quarterbacks Vinny Testaverde and David Carr. Testaverde is 43 years old, and Carr has been sacked 33 times in 10 games against the Colts. Look for this game to give him new nightmares.
Who will win: Indianapolis (11)
Oakland Raiders (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (4-2, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Oakland lost to Kansas City, 12-10; Tennessee beat Houston, 38-36.
Hear that sound? That's the sound of everyone hitting the ground that was on the Raiders bandwagon. After two straight losses, the Raiders find themselves in the basement of the AFC West. Oakland has had big problems stopping the run. The Titans are looking forward to the return of their evasive quarterback Vince Young. The Titans had their back-up QB in last week, AND they gave up 29 points in the 4th quarter. They escaped with a victory nonetheless. It was one those wins that playoff teams get. Plus, this one's in Nashville.
Who will win: Tennessee (7)
Cleveland Browns (3-3, 0-2 on the road) at St Louis Rams (0-7, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland had the bye week; St Louis lost to Seattle, 33-6.
Cleveland looks like all of their young offensive talent is emerging at once. QB Derek Anderson, wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II are quite the triplets. Running back Jamal Lewis is eying a return to action this week. I know I sound like a broken record, but the Rams would be the worst team in football if not for the Miami Dolphins. Rams QB Marc Bulger returned last week, but threw 3 interceptions and lost two fumbles. Running back Steven Jackson will start, but how effective will he be facing 8-man defensive fronts?
Who will win: Cleveland (6)
New York Giants (5-2, 2-1 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-7, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: New York beat San Francisco, 33-15; Miami lost to New England, 49-28.
I have to get this off my chest: don't feed me all that garbage about this being a great thing for the NFL. It's not. The fact that this game is being played in London, and not in the United States is bogus. I know the NBA became famous world-wide by playing exhibition games overseas, conducting camps and so on. However, the NFL belongs here in America. I always laughed at people who said baseball was America's game, especially when the Yankees and Devil Rays kicked off the 2004 season in Japan. Now, the NFL has exported it's great product. Oh well. I'm probably just being selfish anyway. It's all about making money, and that's what the NFL is trying to do. I guess you can't blame them for that. Miami fans are probably sick of their franchise now anyway, and their best player - running back Ronnie Brown - will miss the rest of the season with an injury. The Giants should roll all over Miami, probably the worst team in the AFC.
Who will win: New York (12)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia lost to Chicago, 19-16; Minnesota lost to Dallas, 24-14.
I've arrived at another conclusion this week: the Eagles are not going to be the NFC Champions, as I so foolishly predicted prior to the season. Strictly looking at statistics, it's hard to pinpoint one sore spot: the Eagles are no worse than mediocre in almost all of the major categories. So what are they missing? Leadership? A defining moment? Heart? Whatever it is, the Eagles need to find it, and fast. Their season is slipping away. The Vikings are also 2-4, but have a much more optimistic view of things. Minnesota fans salivate at the thought of rookie sensation running back Adrian Peterson playing for the next 10 years. In this one, beware of the home underdog.
Who will win: Minnesota (3)
4PM Games
Buffalo Bills (2-4, 0-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-6, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo beat Baltimore, 19-14; New York lost to Cincinnati, 38-31.
Wow, so much for the AFC East being a competitive division. Everyone knew the Dolphins would be bad, but the Jets and Bills had high hopes for 2007. Buffalo's offense hasn't made any noise this season. The Jets and their coach Eric Mangini have to be disappointed with their season as well. Second year player Kellen Clemens will be starting at quarterback, and will look to launch the Jets offense. I think I just clinched the "lamest pun of the year award". Anyway, Both teams are just awful. What more is there to say? I'll go with the home team.
Who will win: New York (4)
Houston Texans (3-4, 1-2 at home) at San Diego Chargers (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston lost to Tennessee, 38-36; San Diego had the bye last week.
Last week, the Texans made a furious comeback, only to be defeated on the game's last play. The Texans have now lost two straight, and that should be enough to make fans start planning for 2008. Star wide receiver Andre Johnson is still out with an injury, so Houston will once again be without it's best player. Word just broke that the Chargers will be playing this game in San Diego, despite the disastrous brushfires that took place this week. Before their week off, the Chargers look like they were finally flourishing in new coach Norv Turner's system. Look for Turner to feature all-world running back LaDainian Tomlinson and his new toy - wide receiver Chris Chambers.
Who will win: San Diego (10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2, 2-0 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis, 29-7; Tampa Bay lost to Detroit, 23-16.
Jacksonville's starting quarterback - David Garrard - is out with an injury. That means Quinn Gray will get his first career start. Might as well be Dr Quinn, Medicine Woman starting this one. Tampa Bay will key in on running back Maurice Jones-Drew, and Gray won't be able to make them pay.
Who will win: Tampa Bay (9)
New Orleans Saints (2-4. 1-2 on the road) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans beat Atlanta, 22-16; San Francisco lost to New York Giants, 33-15.
The Saints may have won their last 2 games, but they have a long way to go before they can be mentioned as potential NFC South Champions. They hurt their cause by losing to division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina.San Francisco can't lose the rest of their games, and this one is one they have to win to save face. Plus, quarterback Alex Smith returns this week, and running back Frank Gore is due for a big game. The 49ers are also at home. This one is my "mini-upset" of the week.
Who will win: San Francisco (1)
Washington Redskins (4-2, 1-1 on the road) at New England Patriots (7-0, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Washington beat Arizona,21-19; New England beat Miami, 49-28.
All I can say is this: the Patriots will win, but I don't think it will be by any more than 14 points. This will be the Patriots closest game of the season to this point. Even if the play-calling of 'Skins head coach Joe Gibbs becomes more conservative than a Republican National Convention (and prevents Washington from doing much damage), Washington will still stay in the game. The Redskins just don't look like a team that will get blown out.
Who will win: New England (13)
Monday Night Game
Green Bay Packers (5-1, 2-0 on the road) at Denver Broncos (3-3, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay had the bye week; Denver beat Pittsburgh, 31-28.
This is the week where everyone realizes Green Bay just isn't that good. Yes, Brett Favre is playing like it's 1997, but they have flaws. You've heard the term "strength vs strength"? This one is "weakness vs weakness" - Denver has the league's worst run defense, and Green Bay has the worst rushing offense in football. That means Green Bay won't be able to capitalize on their opponent's soft spot, AND they're playing on the road? I'll take the home team. Maybe a Broncos win will ease the pain of a potential World Series sweep for Mile High fans.
Who will win: Denver (2)
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Red Sox/Rockies: 2007 World Series preview
Well, here we are: the last series on the baseball calendar. The Red Sox came storming back from a 3 games to 1 deficit to earn an appearance in the Fall Classic. Meanwhile, the Rockies are hotter than any team in recent memory. However, the Rockies have had 8 off-days in a row. Does that mean they'll be rusty, and fall in their first ever World Series appearance? Time will tell.
Here's a position-by-position breakdown. Postseason totals are in parentheses.
Catcher: Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba (.320 batting average/1 home run/7 runs batted in) vs. Boston's Jason Varitek (.243/1/5)
Torrealba isn't bad with the bat as far as MLB catchers go. The Rockies pitching staff is performing well for the first time in what seems like forever, and he deserves a share of credit for that. However, Torrealba threw out only 15 of 76 would-be base stealers. Jacoby Ellsbury may be able to take steal some more if they can get on base in the right situations. Varitek is vital to the success of the Boston pitching staff. He is perhaps the most knowledgeable catcher in baseball. He has plenty of pop in his bat for the position he plays. With starting pitcher Tim Wakefield injured and off the playoff roster, it's highly likely that back-up catcher Doug Mirabelli won't start any games, making 'Tek that much more important.
Advantage: Boston
First Base: Todd Helton (.154 batting average/0 home runs/1 run bated in) vs. Boston's David Ortiz (.387/3/6)
Helton is still a solid hitter, one who's capable of batting over 300, hitting 25 home runs, and knocking in 100 runs. He just doesn't seem like the player he once was. For whatever reason, he hasn't played like a top 5 player in a while. His postseason struggles can't be too reassuring to Rockies fans. Then again, the team is 7-0, so they probably haven't thought about him too much. Ortiz and Manny Ramirez carried the Red Sox offense at times this October. Everything you look, it seems like at least one of them was on base. Ortiz is arguably the most feared crunch time hitter of his era, on the same level as the Yankees' Derek Jeter. Fans should watch his play at first base. He very seldom plays there during American League games, but will need to do so when the Sox travel to Colorado. With no designated hitter, that will mean either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkillis will be out of the lineup.
Advantage: Boston
Second Base: Colorado's Kazuo Matsui (.310 average/1 home run/8 runs batted in) vs. Dustin Pedroia (.286/1/6)
Matsui flopped pretty badly when he was with the New York Mets, prompting a trade to the Rockies. While he was unspectacular during the regular season, Matsui did steal 32 bases. During the postseason, Matsui has caught fire, and his a big grand slam vs. the Philies in the divisional around. He is also a key cog in the Rockies great defense. Pedroia hit the rookie wall in April, but hasn't fallen into a prolonged slump since. A victim of bad luck in the first few games vs. Cleveland, Pedroia turned it around quickly and emphatically. In games 5, 6 and 7, he just kept hitting. Pedroia also does a fine job turning the double play, and the Red Sox need for him to get on base for Ortiz and Ramirez.
Advantage: Boston
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (.179 batting average/1 home run/2 runs batted in) vs. Julio Lugo (.229/0/2)
The Rockies' young shortstop got off to a slow start, but ended up being one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. He hit close to .300, belted 24 home runs, and knocked in 99 runs. Tulowitzki is also sold with the glove, as he committed only 11 errors as a full-time player. Let's just say the Sox would take Tulowitzki over Lugo. Lugo was not the players the Red Sox thought they were getting. For some reason, the Boston front office was infatuated with Lugo, offering a contract that seemed far above his market value. The playoffs have not treated Lugo much better than the regular season did, and he collected just 5 hits in 25 at-bats in the League Championship Series vs. Cleveland. Also, Lugo made what could have been a catastrophic error on a routine pop-up. Then again, maybe he can salvage his season with a strong series.
Advantage: Colorado
Third Base: Garrett Atkins (.185 average/0 home runs/1 run batted in) vs. Mike Lowell (.333/1/11)
Both Atkins and Lowell are great hitting third basemen. They had very similar regular season numbers, with Lowell holding a slight edge in batting average and RBI, and Atkins hitting a few more homers. Lowell is hitting very well right now, and has been the number 5 hitter behind Ortiz and Ramirez that the Red Sox hoped JD Drew would be. Lowell makes opponents pay for pitching around the big sluggers. Plus, Lowell is the better defensive player.
Advantage: Boston
Outfield: Colorado's Matt Holliday (.286/4/7), Willy Taveras (.167/0/1) and Brad Hawpe (.304/0/2) vs. Boston's Manny Ramirez (.400/4/14), Jacoby Ellsbury (.222/0/1) and JD Drew (.306/1/9)
Holliday is a candidate for the National League's Most Valuable Player award. He is one of the game's best hitters. Taveras doesn't offer much pop in his bat, but has great speed, as he stole 33 bases in the regular season. Hawpe rounds out a very good Rockies outfield. Ramirez has been on fire this postseason, and he has a good track record in the World Series - he was MVP in 2004. Ellsbury was on Boston's bench, but Sox skipper Terry Francona finally pulled Coco Crisp, who looked awful in the Cleveland series. The Sox won't lose any speed, and Ellsbury is the center fielder of the future. Drew had an awful regular season. It's been a different story in the playoffs, however, and Drew cracked a grand slam in the first inning of game 6 against Cleveland. Some have called it "The $14 million grand slam". The Sox hope more are on the way.
Advantage: Colorado
Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester vs. Colorado's Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook.
Beckett has cemented his status as a fan favorite in the playoffs. The ALCS MVP has been dominant in three starts, and has Sox fans reminiscing about Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Schilling is arguable the best October pitcher of his era. The old timer still has it, as illustrated in his game 6 outing vs. Cleveland. "DiceK" is the X-factor. Boston fans waiting to see the $103 million pitcher may have to wait a season. In the meantime, Matsuzaka needs to at least keep Boston in the game. Lester would have been used as a long reliever in this series if not for the Tim Wakefield injury. He battles high pitch totals early on, so Boston would be ecstatic to have him last 5-6 quality innings.
Francis won 17 games, but had an ERA over 4. Oh, and he pitched in the National League. Doesn't sound particularly impressive. Still, Colorado will need for Francis to set the tone in Game 1. If Colorado loses Game 1, Jimenez's start will be crucial. While not particularly great in the regular season, he has impressed in the playoffs. Then again, who on the Rockies haven't been? Fogg was basically a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 5 during the season. Cook ended the season on the disabled list, but was activated prior to the Series. He could be an X-factor.
Advantage: Boston
Bullpen: This is one of the tightest categories in this series. Boston has reliable set-up men with Hideki Okajima, Mike Timlin and Manny Delcarmen. Javier Lopez is so-so against lefties, and Kyle Snyder should be regulated to mop-up duty. The Red Sox boast perhaps the best closer in baseball with Jonathan Papelbon. The Rockies' relief corps isn't comprised of slouches, either. In a stark contrast to year's past, Colorado's pitching is not a huge liability. The set-up men are a wash, and while Manny Corpas has been very good at closer, he is not Papelbon.
Advantage: Boston
Bench: Kevin Youkillis will start at first base when the games are at fenway, but will be stuck on the bench because the NL has a no-DH rule, meaning Ortiz will play first. Alex Cora has seen little action as of late. Backup catcher Doug Mirabelli may not make an appearance because Wakefield won't. Coco Crisp was benched due to ineffectiveness, but may still play a role. Bobby Kielty is a solid pinch-hitting option vs. lefties. Colorado's backup catcher Chris Iannetta is in the same boat as Mirabelli.Jamey Caroll is on the roster because of his flexibility. With their outfield, the Rockies won't need back-up outfielders until the late innings in Colorado.
Advantage: Boston
Prediction: Can the Rockies be stopped? Are they destined for their first World Series title? I think so much hinges on the first game. If Becket shuts down the Rockies bats and Boston wins, that could kill Colorado's morale. They will remember what it is like to lose. If you look at the starting pitching match-ups, the Sox are favorites. Plus, good pitching always beats good hitting, The 2004 St Louis Cardinals had a similar batting order to the one Colorado will feature, and they only mustered 12 runs in a 4-game sweep. The Rockies will make it a contest, but the Sox will prevail.
Boston in 6 games
Here's a position-by-position breakdown. Postseason totals are in parentheses.
Catcher: Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba (.320 batting average/1 home run/7 runs batted in) vs. Boston's Jason Varitek (.243/1/5)
Torrealba isn't bad with the bat as far as MLB catchers go. The Rockies pitching staff is performing well for the first time in what seems like forever, and he deserves a share of credit for that. However, Torrealba threw out only 15 of 76 would-be base stealers. Jacoby Ellsbury may be able to take steal some more if they can get on base in the right situations. Varitek is vital to the success of the Boston pitching staff. He is perhaps the most knowledgeable catcher in baseball. He has plenty of pop in his bat for the position he plays. With starting pitcher Tim Wakefield injured and off the playoff roster, it's highly likely that back-up catcher Doug Mirabelli won't start any games, making 'Tek that much more important.
Advantage: Boston
First Base: Todd Helton (.154 batting average/0 home runs/1 run bated in) vs. Boston's David Ortiz (.387/3/6)
Helton is still a solid hitter, one who's capable of batting over 300, hitting 25 home runs, and knocking in 100 runs. He just doesn't seem like the player he once was. For whatever reason, he hasn't played like a top 5 player in a while. His postseason struggles can't be too reassuring to Rockies fans. Then again, the team is 7-0, so they probably haven't thought about him too much. Ortiz and Manny Ramirez carried the Red Sox offense at times this October. Everything you look, it seems like at least one of them was on base. Ortiz is arguably the most feared crunch time hitter of his era, on the same level as the Yankees' Derek Jeter. Fans should watch his play at first base. He very seldom plays there during American League games, but will need to do so when the Sox travel to Colorado. With no designated hitter, that will mean either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkillis will be out of the lineup.
Advantage: Boston
Second Base: Colorado's Kazuo Matsui (.310 average/1 home run/8 runs batted in) vs. Dustin Pedroia (.286/1/6)
Matsui flopped pretty badly when he was with the New York Mets, prompting a trade to the Rockies. While he was unspectacular during the regular season, Matsui did steal 32 bases. During the postseason, Matsui has caught fire, and his a big grand slam vs. the Philies in the divisional around. He is also a key cog in the Rockies great defense. Pedroia hit the rookie wall in April, but hasn't fallen into a prolonged slump since. A victim of bad luck in the first few games vs. Cleveland, Pedroia turned it around quickly and emphatically. In games 5, 6 and 7, he just kept hitting. Pedroia also does a fine job turning the double play, and the Red Sox need for him to get on base for Ortiz and Ramirez.
Advantage: Boston
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (.179 batting average/1 home run/2 runs batted in) vs. Julio Lugo (.229/0/2)
The Rockies' young shortstop got off to a slow start, but ended up being one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. He hit close to .300, belted 24 home runs, and knocked in 99 runs. Tulowitzki is also sold with the glove, as he committed only 11 errors as a full-time player. Let's just say the Sox would take Tulowitzki over Lugo. Lugo was not the players the Red Sox thought they were getting. For some reason, the Boston front office was infatuated with Lugo, offering a contract that seemed far above his market value. The playoffs have not treated Lugo much better than the regular season did, and he collected just 5 hits in 25 at-bats in the League Championship Series vs. Cleveland. Also, Lugo made what could have been a catastrophic error on a routine pop-up. Then again, maybe he can salvage his season with a strong series.
Advantage: Colorado
Third Base: Garrett Atkins (.185 average/0 home runs/1 run batted in) vs. Mike Lowell (.333/1/11)
Both Atkins and Lowell are great hitting third basemen. They had very similar regular season numbers, with Lowell holding a slight edge in batting average and RBI, and Atkins hitting a few more homers. Lowell is hitting very well right now, and has been the number 5 hitter behind Ortiz and Ramirez that the Red Sox hoped JD Drew would be. Lowell makes opponents pay for pitching around the big sluggers. Plus, Lowell is the better defensive player.
Advantage: Boston
Outfield: Colorado's Matt Holliday (.286/4/7), Willy Taveras (.167/0/1) and Brad Hawpe (.304/0/2) vs. Boston's Manny Ramirez (.400/4/14), Jacoby Ellsbury (.222/0/1) and JD Drew (.306/1/9)
Holliday is a candidate for the National League's Most Valuable Player award. He is one of the game's best hitters. Taveras doesn't offer much pop in his bat, but has great speed, as he stole 33 bases in the regular season. Hawpe rounds out a very good Rockies outfield. Ramirez has been on fire this postseason, and he has a good track record in the World Series - he was MVP in 2004. Ellsbury was on Boston's bench, but Sox skipper Terry Francona finally pulled Coco Crisp, who looked awful in the Cleveland series. The Sox won't lose any speed, and Ellsbury is the center fielder of the future. Drew had an awful regular season. It's been a different story in the playoffs, however, and Drew cracked a grand slam in the first inning of game 6 against Cleveland. Some have called it "The $14 million grand slam". The Sox hope more are on the way.
Advantage: Colorado
Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester vs. Colorado's Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook.
Beckett has cemented his status as a fan favorite in the playoffs. The ALCS MVP has been dominant in three starts, and has Sox fans reminiscing about Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Schilling is arguable the best October pitcher of his era. The old timer still has it, as illustrated in his game 6 outing vs. Cleveland. "DiceK" is the X-factor. Boston fans waiting to see the $103 million pitcher may have to wait a season. In the meantime, Matsuzaka needs to at least keep Boston in the game. Lester would have been used as a long reliever in this series if not for the Tim Wakefield injury. He battles high pitch totals early on, so Boston would be ecstatic to have him last 5-6 quality innings.
Francis won 17 games, but had an ERA over 4. Oh, and he pitched in the National League. Doesn't sound particularly impressive. Still, Colorado will need for Francis to set the tone in Game 1. If Colorado loses Game 1, Jimenez's start will be crucial. While not particularly great in the regular season, he has impressed in the playoffs. Then again, who on the Rockies haven't been? Fogg was basically a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 5 during the season. Cook ended the season on the disabled list, but was activated prior to the Series. He could be an X-factor.
Advantage: Boston
Bullpen: This is one of the tightest categories in this series. Boston has reliable set-up men with Hideki Okajima, Mike Timlin and Manny Delcarmen. Javier Lopez is so-so against lefties, and Kyle Snyder should be regulated to mop-up duty. The Red Sox boast perhaps the best closer in baseball with Jonathan Papelbon. The Rockies' relief corps isn't comprised of slouches, either. In a stark contrast to year's past, Colorado's pitching is not a huge liability. The set-up men are a wash, and while Manny Corpas has been very good at closer, he is not Papelbon.
Advantage: Boston
Bench: Kevin Youkillis will start at first base when the games are at fenway, but will be stuck on the bench because the NL has a no-DH rule, meaning Ortiz will play first. Alex Cora has seen little action as of late. Backup catcher Doug Mirabelli may not make an appearance because Wakefield won't. Coco Crisp was benched due to ineffectiveness, but may still play a role. Bobby Kielty is a solid pinch-hitting option vs. lefties. Colorado's backup catcher Chris Iannetta is in the same boat as Mirabelli.Jamey Caroll is on the roster because of his flexibility. With their outfield, the Rockies won't need back-up outfielders until the late innings in Colorado.
Advantage: Boston
Prediction: Can the Rockies be stopped? Are they destined for their first World Series title? I think so much hinges on the first game. If Becket shuts down the Rockies bats and Boston wins, that could kill Colorado's morale. They will remember what it is like to lose. If you look at the starting pitching match-ups, the Sox are favorites. Plus, good pitching always beats good hitting, The 2004 St Louis Cardinals had a similar batting order to the one Colorado will feature, and they only mustered 12 runs in a 4-game sweep. The Rockies will make it a contest, but the Sox will prevail.
Boston in 6 games
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Week 7 in the NFL
Last week was decent for me. I went 9-4, and got 71 out of a possible 91 points. Like I said in last week's blog, I don't have a record of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 6: 490 points out of a possible 709 (69.1%)
Weeks 3-6 : 289 points out of a possible 437 (66.1%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 6: 55 wins, 34 losses (61.8%)
Weeks 3 - 6: 37 wins, 22 losses (62.7%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 7 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Tennessee Titans (3-2, 2-1 on the road) at Houston Texans (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee lost to Tampa Bay, 13-10; Houston lost to Jacksonville, 37-17.
Tennessee has held opponents to a league-low 63.8 rushing yards per game, thanks in large part to monster defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Hey, when he's not stomping on people's faces, this guy is pretty good! The big question is if Titans Quarterback Vince Young can suit up. You know he's still feeling slighted because Houston didn't take their native son in the 2006 draft. Even if he doesn't play, Kerry Collins should be able to get the job done. The Texans' 29th ranked rushing attack shouldn't be a problem for the Titans. Will Texans QB Matt Schaub - without stud wide receiver Andre Johnson - be able to win it for Houston? I don't think so, and neither should you,
Who will win: Tennessee (5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Detroit Lions (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Tennessee, 13-10; Detroit had the bye week
Tampa Bay could either be the 3rd best team in the NFC (behind Dallas and Green Bay), or they could be a big pretender. Their fans point to the strong play of QB Jeff Garcia and a stout defense. Their critics say they haven't defeated any good teams yet. This week probably won't answer many questions, as no one knows what to make of Detroit either. The Lions are in the same boat as Tampa Bay. Detroit QB John Kitna has had a good season so far, but the Lions have given up 28 sacks, the most in football. Plus, they are 31st in the league in rushing yards per game. Tampa could feast on a one-dimensional offense.
Who will win: Tampa Bay (7)
New England Patriots (6-0, 3-0 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-6, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Dallas, 48-27; Miami lost to Cleveland, 41-31.
Dallas coach Wade Phillips said he thought it would be a good idea to focus on stopping the run, and 'forcing' Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat them last week. To recap: he wanted one of the best quarterbacks of all-time to beat him. Well, he got his wish. Maybe first-year Miami coach Cam Cameron and his team can do better. Off-topic: is his full name 'Cameron Cameron'? If so, why didn't his parents think about that for an extra minute?? Anyway, Miami was struggling mightily in every facet of the game, and dealt away wide receiver Chris Chambers, their best downfield threat. Sounds like they're planning for 2008 earlier than most. I don't care that the Patriots seem cursed in Miami: the Dolphins are arguably the league's worst team; the Patriots are arguably the best.
Who will win: New England (14)
Atlanta Falcons (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (1-4, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta lost to New York Giants, 31-10; New Orleans beat Seattle, 28-17.
Good God, I don't even want to talk about this game. Atlanta is putrid. They would be the worst team in the NFC if not for the St Louis Rams. They've decided to go with Byron Leftwich to replace Joey Harrington at QB. The Saints actually showed signs of life last week by putting together a nice win AT Seattle. Running back Reggie Bush finally decided to stop dancing so much in the backfield. New Orleans got a big play from special teams, and the defense was decent. Plus, they're playing at home. Please, just let me move on ...
Who will win: New Orleans (10)
San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 1-1 on the road) at New York Giants (4-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco had the bye week; New York beat Atlanta, 31-10.
For these two teams, the glory days of the 1980's are long gone. At least the Giants are playing like a contender. After winning their first two games, the 49ers have stumbled badly. The offense, which was supposed the recapture those glory days, has been anemic. They're ranked 31st in the NFL in points per game. San Francisco has gone a different path, starting off 0-2 before reeling off 4 wins in a row. They have the 6th ranked offense in football, and are great at pressuring the other teams's quarterback. Look for the G-Men to add to their league-leading 22 sacks.
Who will win: New York (9)
Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (1-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore beat St Louis, 22-3; Buffalo had the bye week
In what is shaping up to be "Show Me Something Weekend" in the NFL, Baltimore joins the party. The wins haven't been that impressive, but they are 4-2, and should be in the playoff mix. The defense is back to old form, but shutdown cornerbacK Chris McCallister is out with an injury. Buffalo hasn't done much offensively, due in large part to the disappearing act of wide receiver Lee Evans. This might be his breakout week, especially with McCallister out. Another subplot is the fact that former Bills running back Wills McGahee returns to Buffalo as a member of the Ravens. Let's just say he was not the biggest fan of the city of Buffalo. Baltimore has flaws; don't expect Buffalo to be able to expose them.
Who will win: Baltimore (6)
Arizona Cardinals (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (3-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona lost to Carolina, 25-10; Washington lost to Green Bay, 17-14
Arizona lost to a team that had a 43-year old starting quarterback (Vinny Testaverde) last Sunday. They also are down to their third-string quarterback. It's too bad, because Arizona was making strides. They still may end up with a respectable record, but Washington has looked good in 2007. The 'Skins are really 2 or 3 plays away from being 5-0. Washington still has two good running backs, a calm quarterback, and a formidable defense. If the predictability of the offense doesn't do them in, they should be just fine.
Who will win: Washington (11)
4PM Games
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Kansas City beat Cincinnati, 27-20; Oakland lost to San Diego, 28-14
Maybe this won't be a rebuilding season for Kansas City after all. Despite unspectacular play from the quarterback position and from workhorse running back Larry Johnson, the Chiefs lead the AFC West. One big reason is a defense that has registered 19 sacks, second most in the NFL. Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper is not nearly as mobile as he once was, so he could become a sitting target. Plus, Johnson ran the ball well last week against the Bengals, and the Raiders have the league's 28th ranked rushing defense. When it doubt, bet against the Raiders.
Who will win: Kansas City (4)
New York Jets (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: New York lost to Philadelphia, 16-9; Cincinnati lost to Kansas City, 27-20
Before the season started, this was viewed as a match-up of potential playoff teams. Now, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat. When he arrived for the 2003 season, he was supposed to be the savior of the franchise. However, undisciplined players and an erratic defense hasn't been a recipe for success. The Jets haven't looked good all season. They over-achieved big time last year, and expectations may have been too high for the 2007 edition. When two awful teams get together, I go with the one with the better quarterback and/or the home field advantage. Cincinnati has both.
Who will win: Cincinnati (8)
Chicago Bears (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Chicago lost to Minnesota, 34-31; Philadelphia beat New York Jets, 16-9
Chicago gave up 311 rushing yards last week vs the Vikings. Philadelphia isn't exactly a smash mouth football team, but the Bears aren't exactly stopping people from passing the ball either. Both teams were expected to contend for the postseason before the year started, but the loser will find it nearly impossible to make it. I'll take the home team in this one.
Who will win: Philadelphia (3)
St Louis Rams (0-6, 0-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Baltimore, 22-3; Seattle beat New Orleans, 28-17
The Rams are just horrendous this year. They have 4 offensive lineman out for the season with injuries, running back Steven Jackson is out, and QB Marc Bulger will be back this week after sitting out with 2 broken ribs. Needless to say, Rams coach Scott Linehan may be on the hot seat, and St Louis is by far the worst team in the NFC, maybe the worst in all of football. The Seahawks looked bad in their last two games. I wouldn't bank on them losing back-to-back home games.
Who will win: Seattle (13)
Minnesota Vikings (2-3, 1-2 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas lost to New England, 48-27; Minnesota beat Chicago, 34-31
I know we went over this, but Dallas coach Wade Phillips really did want Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat him last week. He set southerners back 15 years. Anyway, he should duplicate the game plan from last week because this time, he'll have Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson to worry about. Let's just say he's a far cry from Brady. However, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson may be the real deal. He tore through the Bears for 224 yards last week, so he should be Dallas' primary concern. The Cowboys won't lose two in a row at home.
Who will win: Dallas (12)
Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, 1-1 on the road) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 1-2 at home)
Last week: Both teams had the bye week
Once you get past the Patriots and Colts, the Steelers have to be considered the third best team in the conference. QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing better than he has since his rookie season. He and coach Mike Tomlin seem to be on the same page, and the offense is 5th in the league in points per game, and 2nd in rushing. Pitt also has the stingiest defense in football. So why am I picking Denver in this game? Well, they're a home underdog, and Broncos coach Mike Shanahan had the bye week to look for flaws in the Steel Curtain. OK, I should pick Pittsburgh, but this is my "Upset Special of the Week".
Who will win: Denver (2)
Monday Night Game
Indianapolis Colts (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis had the bye week; Jacksonville beat Houston, 37-17
Jacksonville is one of only 4 teams - the others being New England, San Diego and Pittsburgh - that have a consistent history of giving the Colts offense problems. Jacksonville has a big, fast defense, and they are capable of stuffing the run and pressuring Colts QB Peyton Manning. Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew is due for a breakout game. This is a prime-time game in Jacksonville, so you can call this my "Upset Special of the Week, part deux"
Who will win: Jacksonville (1)
Weeks 1 - 6: 490 points out of a possible 709 (69.1%)
Weeks 3-6 : 289 points out of a possible 437 (66.1%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 6: 55 wins, 34 losses (61.8%)
Weeks 3 - 6: 37 wins, 22 losses (62.7%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 7 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Tennessee Titans (3-2, 2-1 on the road) at Houston Texans (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee lost to Tampa Bay, 13-10; Houston lost to Jacksonville, 37-17.
Tennessee has held opponents to a league-low 63.8 rushing yards per game, thanks in large part to monster defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Hey, when he's not stomping on people's faces, this guy is pretty good! The big question is if Titans Quarterback Vince Young can suit up. You know he's still feeling slighted because Houston didn't take their native son in the 2006 draft. Even if he doesn't play, Kerry Collins should be able to get the job done. The Texans' 29th ranked rushing attack shouldn't be a problem for the Titans. Will Texans QB Matt Schaub - without stud wide receiver Andre Johnson - be able to win it for Houston? I don't think so, and neither should you,
Who will win: Tennessee (5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Detroit Lions (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Tennessee, 13-10; Detroit had the bye week
Tampa Bay could either be the 3rd best team in the NFC (behind Dallas and Green Bay), or they could be a big pretender. Their fans point to the strong play of QB Jeff Garcia and a stout defense. Their critics say they haven't defeated any good teams yet. This week probably won't answer many questions, as no one knows what to make of Detroit either. The Lions are in the same boat as Tampa Bay. Detroit QB John Kitna has had a good season so far, but the Lions have given up 28 sacks, the most in football. Plus, they are 31st in the league in rushing yards per game. Tampa could feast on a one-dimensional offense.
Who will win: Tampa Bay (7)
New England Patriots (6-0, 3-0 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-6, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Dallas, 48-27; Miami lost to Cleveland, 41-31.
Dallas coach Wade Phillips said he thought it would be a good idea to focus on stopping the run, and 'forcing' Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat them last week. To recap: he wanted one of the best quarterbacks of all-time to beat him. Well, he got his wish. Maybe first-year Miami coach Cam Cameron and his team can do better. Off-topic: is his full name 'Cameron Cameron'? If so, why didn't his parents think about that for an extra minute?? Anyway, Miami was struggling mightily in every facet of the game, and dealt away wide receiver Chris Chambers, their best downfield threat. Sounds like they're planning for 2008 earlier than most. I don't care that the Patriots seem cursed in Miami: the Dolphins are arguably the league's worst team; the Patriots are arguably the best.
Who will win: New England (14)
Atlanta Falcons (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (1-4, 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta lost to New York Giants, 31-10; New Orleans beat Seattle, 28-17.
Good God, I don't even want to talk about this game. Atlanta is putrid. They would be the worst team in the NFC if not for the St Louis Rams. They've decided to go with Byron Leftwich to replace Joey Harrington at QB. The Saints actually showed signs of life last week by putting together a nice win AT Seattle. Running back Reggie Bush finally decided to stop dancing so much in the backfield. New Orleans got a big play from special teams, and the defense was decent. Plus, they're playing at home. Please, just let me move on ...
Who will win: New Orleans (10)
San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 1-1 on the road) at New York Giants (4-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco had the bye week; New York beat Atlanta, 31-10.
For these two teams, the glory days of the 1980's are long gone. At least the Giants are playing like a contender. After winning their first two games, the 49ers have stumbled badly. The offense, which was supposed the recapture those glory days, has been anemic. They're ranked 31st in the NFL in points per game. San Francisco has gone a different path, starting off 0-2 before reeling off 4 wins in a row. They have the 6th ranked offense in football, and are great at pressuring the other teams's quarterback. Look for the G-Men to add to their league-leading 22 sacks.
Who will win: New York (9)
Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 1-2 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (1-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore beat St Louis, 22-3; Buffalo had the bye week
In what is shaping up to be "Show Me Something Weekend" in the NFL, Baltimore joins the party. The wins haven't been that impressive, but they are 4-2, and should be in the playoff mix. The defense is back to old form, but shutdown cornerbacK Chris McCallister is out with an injury. Buffalo hasn't done much offensively, due in large part to the disappearing act of wide receiver Lee Evans. This might be his breakout week, especially with McCallister out. Another subplot is the fact that former Bills running back Wills McGahee returns to Buffalo as a member of the Ravens. Let's just say he was not the biggest fan of the city of Buffalo. Baltimore has flaws; don't expect Buffalo to be able to expose them.
Who will win: Baltimore (6)
Arizona Cardinals (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (3-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona lost to Carolina, 25-10; Washington lost to Green Bay, 17-14
Arizona lost to a team that had a 43-year old starting quarterback (Vinny Testaverde) last Sunday. They also are down to their third-string quarterback. It's too bad, because Arizona was making strides. They still may end up with a respectable record, but Washington has looked good in 2007. The 'Skins are really 2 or 3 plays away from being 5-0. Washington still has two good running backs, a calm quarterback, and a formidable defense. If the predictability of the offense doesn't do them in, they should be just fine.
Who will win: Washington (11)
4PM Games
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 1-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Kansas City beat Cincinnati, 27-20; Oakland lost to San Diego, 28-14
Maybe this won't be a rebuilding season for Kansas City after all. Despite unspectacular play from the quarterback position and from workhorse running back Larry Johnson, the Chiefs lead the AFC West. One big reason is a defense that has registered 19 sacks, second most in the NFL. Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper is not nearly as mobile as he once was, so he could become a sitting target. Plus, Johnson ran the ball well last week against the Bengals, and the Raiders have the league's 28th ranked rushing defense. When it doubt, bet against the Raiders.
Who will win: Kansas City (4)
New York Jets (1-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: New York lost to Philadelphia, 16-9; Cincinnati lost to Kansas City, 27-20
Before the season started, this was viewed as a match-up of potential playoff teams. Now, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat. When he arrived for the 2003 season, he was supposed to be the savior of the franchise. However, undisciplined players and an erratic defense hasn't been a recipe for success. The Jets haven't looked good all season. They over-achieved big time last year, and expectations may have been too high for the 2007 edition. When two awful teams get together, I go with the one with the better quarterback and/or the home field advantage. Cincinnati has both.
Who will win: Cincinnati (8)
Chicago Bears (2-4, 1-2 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Chicago lost to Minnesota, 34-31; Philadelphia beat New York Jets, 16-9
Chicago gave up 311 rushing yards last week vs the Vikings. Philadelphia isn't exactly a smash mouth football team, but the Bears aren't exactly stopping people from passing the ball either. Both teams were expected to contend for the postseason before the year started, but the loser will find it nearly impossible to make it. I'll take the home team in this one.
Who will win: Philadelphia (3)
St Louis Rams (0-6, 0-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Baltimore, 22-3; Seattle beat New Orleans, 28-17
The Rams are just horrendous this year. They have 4 offensive lineman out for the season with injuries, running back Steven Jackson is out, and QB Marc Bulger will be back this week after sitting out with 2 broken ribs. Needless to say, Rams coach Scott Linehan may be on the hot seat, and St Louis is by far the worst team in the NFC, maybe the worst in all of football. The Seahawks looked bad in their last two games. I wouldn't bank on them losing back-to-back home games.
Who will win: Seattle (13)
Minnesota Vikings (2-3, 1-2 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas lost to New England, 48-27; Minnesota beat Chicago, 34-31
I know we went over this, but Dallas coach Wade Phillips really did want Patriots QB Tom Brady to beat him last week. He set southerners back 15 years. Anyway, he should duplicate the game plan from last week because this time, he'll have Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson to worry about. Let's just say he's a far cry from Brady. However, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson may be the real deal. He tore through the Bears for 224 yards last week, so he should be Dallas' primary concern. The Cowboys won't lose two in a row at home.
Who will win: Dallas (12)
Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, 1-1 on the road) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 1-2 at home)
Last week: Both teams had the bye week
Once you get past the Patriots and Colts, the Steelers have to be considered the third best team in the conference. QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing better than he has since his rookie season. He and coach Mike Tomlin seem to be on the same page, and the offense is 5th in the league in points per game, and 2nd in rushing. Pitt also has the stingiest defense in football. So why am I picking Denver in this game? Well, they're a home underdog, and Broncos coach Mike Shanahan had the bye week to look for flaws in the Steel Curtain. OK, I should pick Pittsburgh, but this is my "Upset Special of the Week".
Who will win: Denver (2)
Monday Night Game
Indianapolis Colts (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis had the bye week; Jacksonville beat Houston, 37-17
Jacksonville is one of only 4 teams - the others being New England, San Diego and Pittsburgh - that have a consistent history of giving the Colts offense problems. Jacksonville has a big, fast defense, and they are capable of stuffing the run and pressuring Colts QB Peyton Manning. Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew is due for a breakout game. This is a prime-time game in Jacksonville, so you can call this my "Upset Special of the Week, part deux"
Who will win: Jacksonville (1)
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Week 6 NFL Predictions
OK, now that's a lot better! My picks last week showed I at least know a little bit about pro football. Here's a little breakdown of my performance. You can verify that I'm not lying about Weeks 3 through 5 by going through past blogs, but you'll have to take my word that I'm not lying about the first two weeks. Come on: some of you out there know me. I'm trustworthy ... right?
*crickets chirping*
Weeks 1 - 5: 419 points out of a possible 618 (67.8%)
Weeks 3-5 : 218 points out of a possible 346 (63%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 5: 46 wins, 30 losses (60.5%)
Weeks 3 - 5: 26 wins, 18 losses (59.1%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 6 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 13 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Tennessee Titans (3-1, 2-0 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee beat Atlanta, 20-13; Tampa Bay lost to Indianapolis, 33-14.
Tennessee did not play well at all vs the Falcons last week, but they were able to come away with the win. Okay, so the Falcons are probably the dregs of the NFL, but the Titans are still a pretty good team. Although it's unlikely they'll overtake the Colts for the division title, they still have the early inside track on a wild card spot. Tampa Bay had their first sub par week since opening day. Even though running back Cadillac Williams is out for the year, Tampa should still be competent on offense. And while their defense didn't do much vs Indy last season, Tampa has a pretty solid track record vs mobile quarterbacks like Vince Young (Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, etc.). I know one is an AFC team and the other is an NFC team, but that doesn't always mean one outcome, does it?
Who will win: Tampa Bay (4)
Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota had the bye week; Chicago beat Green Bay, 27-20.
Minnesota has a formidable backfield with veteran Chester Taylor and rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. They also have a tremendous run defense, one which doesn't allow many yards to anyone. You know what they don't have? A competent quarterback. I don't care how banged up the Bears defense is, or who's playing QB for them. Of course, Brian Griese is still more competent than anyone Minnesota can send out there. They contained Green Bay QB Brett Favre last week. Plus, it's in Chicago.
Who will win: Chicago (6)
Houston Texans (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston beat Miami, 22-19; Jacksonville beat Kansas City, 17-7.
Houston will be without superstar wide receiver Andre Johnson for another week. Running back Ahman Green was sidelined the past two games with a bruised knee. Oh, and did I mention they'll be going up against a Jacksonville defense that has yielded only 10.2 points per contest? I know the Texans have a history of playing well vs Jacksonville, but that was then. This is now. Plus, are you about to argue with this man?
Who will win: Jacksonville (2)
Miami Dolphins (0-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (2-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Houston, 22-19; Cleveland lost to New England, 34-17.
OK, this much we know about Miami: they have someone named Cleo Lemon as their starting quarterback after starter Trent Green suffered a brutal concussion last Sunday. Running back Ronnie Brown is their only weapon. Their defense can't stop the run, and looks old and slow. They have a first-year head coach. Other than that, they're looking great! Surprisingly, plenty of good tickets are still available! If Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel once concocted schemes to slow down QB's such as Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, I think he'll be able to deal with Ms Cleo. I never thought I'd go this high on the Browns, but when in Rome ...
Who will win: Cleveland (11)
St Louis Rams (0-5, 0-2 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Arizona, 34-31; Baltimore beat San Francisco, 9-7.
Miami, meet your NFC counterpart! Their normal starting QB - Marc Bulger - has bruised ribs. Their best offensive player - running back Steven Jackson - is out with an injury. The Rams have given up the 4th most rushing yards in the league. Baltimore just seems to be treading water. They aren't particularly impressive, and rank in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. At least their defense only gave up 7 points last week. Then again, the offense only mustered 9 points. This is an AFC/NFC match up, and it's in Baltimore.
Who will win: Baltimore (10)
Washington Redskins (3-1, 1-0 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Washington beat Detroit, 34-3; Green Bay lost to Chicago, 27-20.
Washington is playing like they're back in the 1980's. Joe Gibbs is coaching, they have a competent quarterback, two quality running backs and a stingy defense. In the NFC - heck, in the NFL - this year, isn't that all you need? Green Bay had their first setback of the season last week vs the Bears, and it's unlikely they'll lost two straight at Lambeau Field. But hey, I'm like ex-Patriots coach Pete Carroll: "Feeling dangerous right now".
Who will win: Washington (1)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati had the bye week; Kansas City lost to Jacksonville, 17-7
If playing god-awful defense was a crime, the Bengals would have more players added to the police blotter. If Baltimore didn't cough the ball up 6 times against Cincy in Week 1, they'd be looking at an 0-4 record. Running back Rudi Johnson might return this week, but it's not like he was on the verge of breaking Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record before he got hurt. I don't care that KC is tied for dead last in the NFL in rushing yards AND they've played 5 games, where some have only played 4. KC probably won't lose two in a row at home. If it's a shootout, Cincy has the advantage. If it's low-scoring KC should take it.
Who will win: Kansas City (3)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia had the bye week; the Jets lost to the Giants, 35-24
Philadelphia was off last week, and you can be sure head coach Andy Reid utilized that extra time to come up with a brilliant game plan for the Jets. Well, he probably won't need a brilliant game plan, because the Jets D is porous. They've given up the 6th most rushing yards in the league, along with the 6th most passing yards. I think that means Eric Mangini's team is pretty consistent! Oh, and this just in: Jets QB Chad Pennington had one of his throws clocked at a speed of 12 miles per hour last week, a personal best for him. Philly needs this one to stay in the playoff race; the Jets just want to finish ahead of the woeful Bills and Dolphins.
Who will win: Philadelphia (9)
4PM Games
Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-0 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Carolina beat New Orleans, 16-13; Arizona lost to St Louis, 34-31.
Carolina is 3-0 on the road, and 0-2 at home. I shouldn't be surprised. The Panthers are consistently inconsistent. One week they can look like a playoff team, the next they look helpless. Starting QB Jake Delhomme is out for the season, and backup David Carr developed a sore back and may not start. If he can't play, coach John Fox has two options: start 44-year old Vinny
Testaverde or youngster Matt Moore. As promising as that sounds, neither will be adequately prepared to face a swarming Arizona defense. On offense, Kurt Warner may not be a big step down from Matt Leinart at QB.
Who will win: Arizona (5)
Oakland Raiders (2-2, 1-1 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Oakland had the bye week; San Diego beat Denver, 41-3
A big part of Oakland's resurgence has been their ground game, which is ranked 2nd in the NFL. Interestingly enough, their passing game is ranked 30th. Oakland is about as average as an NFL team can be. They've scored 102 points, and given up 100. They're 1-1 on the road, and 1-1 at home. Hey, mediocrity is a big step up for this franchise after the last four seasons. San Diego is another team that is impossible to predict. Are they the team who smacked around by the Patriots, Packers and Chiefs? Are they the team that went into Denver and destroyed the Broncos? Only time will tell. But Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson always torches the Oakland defense. It's possible the players may have finally bought into coach Norv Turner's scheme. The AFC West is wide open, making this game vital to both clubs.
Who will win: San Diego (12)
New England Patriots (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-0, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Cleveland, 34-17; Dallas beat Buffalo, 25-24.
As announcer Keith Jackson might proclaim, "Whoa nelly! We got a dandy of a gridiron match-up on our hands here!" New England is famous for jumping out to early leads; Dallas has been infamous this year for falling into an early hole. It's highly likely the Patriots will use the pass to set up their running game. They could come out in 4 and 5-receiver sets, to try to take advantage of a suspect Dallas secondary. Safety Roy Williams is a big liability in coverage, so look for Wes Welker and/or Ben Watson to have a big game. If Buffalo's defense gave Dallas QB Tony Romo that much trouble last week, just imagine what Bill Belichick has in mind for him. This will be a close game, but New England just has too much firepower. *Note to Jets coach Eric 'I squeal like a pig' Mangini, commissioner Goodell and the majority of the "lame-stream" media: Don't give the Patriots any extra motivation next time. Do you see what you've done, with all the carnage they've wrecked? They were a talented team with a lot of pride, not to mention respect for their head coach. If everyone left well enough alone, there wouldn't have been a problem. Now, the Patriots are determined to humiliate everyone in their path. I hope you're all happy.
Who will win: New England (13)
Sunday Night Game
New Orleans Saints (0-4, 0-2 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans lost to Carolina, 16-13; Seattle lost to Pittsburgh, 21-0.
I'm sorry, New Orleans, but you've killed me too many times this season. It's clear now that 2006 was a fluke. No, I'm not saying QB Drew Brees is overrated, or that Reggie Bush won't be a good pro, or that there was a reason Marques Colston was a 7th round pick. All I'm saying is that the Saints rode an emotional high last season, and other players on the team overachieved. Additionally, teams have a year of Sean Payton's offense on film now, so some wrinkles aren't working as well as last season. Opposing safeties are playing deep because they think their front 7 can stop the Saints running game (which they have been), so the big play opportunities aren't really there. The defense - not exactly the '85 Bears last year - isn't getting the job done this year, either. Seattle is always tough to beat at home. They are too good to have two bad weeks in a row.
Who will win: Seattle (8)
Monday Night Game
New York Giants (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: The Giants lost to the NY Jets, 35-24; Atlanta lost to Tennessee, 20-13.
After a rough start, the Giants are riding a 3-game winning streak. Considering the state of the NFC, this team - as many flaws as it has - may be able to make some noise. Atlanta QB Joey Harrington has been sacked 17 times, and struggled last week. I've tried to defend Harrington for the last five years (mainly because of his dapper first name), but it's time I admit he'll never be anything better than mediocre ... if he's lucky.
Who will win: New York (7)
*crickets chirping*
Weeks 1 - 5: 419 points out of a possible 618 (67.8%)
Weeks 3-5 : 218 points out of a possible 346 (63%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 5: 46 wins, 30 losses (60.5%)
Weeks 3 - 5: 26 wins, 18 losses (59.1%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 6 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 13 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Tennessee Titans (3-1, 2-0 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tennessee beat Atlanta, 20-13; Tampa Bay lost to Indianapolis, 33-14.
Tennessee did not play well at all vs the Falcons last week, but they were able to come away with the win. Okay, so the Falcons are probably the dregs of the NFL, but the Titans are still a pretty good team. Although it's unlikely they'll overtake the Colts for the division title, they still have the early inside track on a wild card spot. Tampa Bay had their first sub par week since opening day. Even though running back Cadillac Williams is out for the year, Tampa should still be competent on offense. And while their defense didn't do much vs Indy last season, Tampa has a pretty solid track record vs mobile quarterbacks like Vince Young (Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, etc.). I know one is an AFC team and the other is an NFC team, but that doesn't always mean one outcome, does it?
Who will win: Tampa Bay (4)
Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota had the bye week; Chicago beat Green Bay, 27-20.
Minnesota has a formidable backfield with veteran Chester Taylor and rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. They also have a tremendous run defense, one which doesn't allow many yards to anyone. You know what they don't have? A competent quarterback. I don't care how banged up the Bears defense is, or who's playing QB for them. Of course, Brian Griese is still more competent than anyone Minnesota can send out there. They contained Green Bay QB Brett Favre last week. Plus, it's in Chicago.
Who will win: Chicago (6)
Houston Texans (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston beat Miami, 22-19; Jacksonville beat Kansas City, 17-7.
Houston will be without superstar wide receiver Andre Johnson for another week. Running back Ahman Green was sidelined the past two games with a bruised knee. Oh, and did I mention they'll be going up against a Jacksonville defense that has yielded only 10.2 points per contest? I know the Texans have a history of playing well vs Jacksonville, but that was then. This is now. Plus, are you about to argue with this man?
Who will win: Jacksonville (2)
Miami Dolphins (0-5, 0-3 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (2-3, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Houston, 22-19; Cleveland lost to New England, 34-17.
OK, this much we know about Miami: they have someone named Cleo Lemon as their starting quarterback after starter Trent Green suffered a brutal concussion last Sunday. Running back Ronnie Brown is their only weapon. Their defense can't stop the run, and looks old and slow. They have a first-year head coach. Other than that, they're looking great! Surprisingly, plenty of good tickets are still available! If Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel once concocted schemes to slow down QB's such as Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, I think he'll be able to deal with Ms Cleo. I never thought I'd go this high on the Browns, but when in Rome ...
Who will win: Cleveland (11)
St Louis Rams (0-5, 0-2 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: St Louis lost to Arizona, 34-31; Baltimore beat San Francisco, 9-7.
Miami, meet your NFC counterpart! Their normal starting QB - Marc Bulger - has bruised ribs. Their best offensive player - running back Steven Jackson - is out with an injury. The Rams have given up the 4th most rushing yards in the league. Baltimore just seems to be treading water. They aren't particularly impressive, and rank in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. At least their defense only gave up 7 points last week. Then again, the offense only mustered 9 points. This is an AFC/NFC match up, and it's in Baltimore.
Who will win: Baltimore (10)
Washington Redskins (3-1, 1-0 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (4-1, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Washington beat Detroit, 34-3; Green Bay lost to Chicago, 27-20.
Washington is playing like they're back in the 1980's. Joe Gibbs is coaching, they have a competent quarterback, two quality running backs and a stingy defense. In the NFC - heck, in the NFL - this year, isn't that all you need? Green Bay had their first setback of the season last week vs the Bears, and it's unlikely they'll lost two straight at Lambeau Field. But hey, I'm like ex-Patriots coach Pete Carroll: "Feeling dangerous right now".
Who will win: Washington (1)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati had the bye week; Kansas City lost to Jacksonville, 17-7
If playing god-awful defense was a crime, the Bengals would have more players added to the police blotter. If Baltimore didn't cough the ball up 6 times against Cincy in Week 1, they'd be looking at an 0-4 record. Running back Rudi Johnson might return this week, but it's not like he was on the verge of breaking Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record before he got hurt. I don't care that KC is tied for dead last in the NFL in rushing yards AND they've played 5 games, where some have only played 4. KC probably won't lose two in a row at home. If it's a shootout, Cincy has the advantage. If it's low-scoring KC should take it.
Who will win: Kansas City (3)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3, 0-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia had the bye week; the Jets lost to the Giants, 35-24
Philadelphia was off last week, and you can be sure head coach Andy Reid utilized that extra time to come up with a brilliant game plan for the Jets. Well, he probably won't need a brilliant game plan, because the Jets D is porous. They've given up the 6th most rushing yards in the league, along with the 6th most passing yards. I think that means Eric Mangini's team is pretty consistent! Oh, and this just in: Jets QB Chad Pennington had one of his throws clocked at a speed of 12 miles per hour last week, a personal best for him. Philly needs this one to stay in the playoff race; the Jets just want to finish ahead of the woeful Bills and Dolphins.
Who will win: Philadelphia (9)
4PM Games
Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-0 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Carolina beat New Orleans, 16-13; Arizona lost to St Louis, 34-31.
Carolina is 3-0 on the road, and 0-2 at home. I shouldn't be surprised. The Panthers are consistently inconsistent. One week they can look like a playoff team, the next they look helpless. Starting QB Jake Delhomme is out for the season, and backup David Carr developed a sore back and may not start. If he can't play, coach John Fox has two options: start 44-year old Vinny
Testaverde or youngster Matt Moore. As promising as that sounds, neither will be adequately prepared to face a swarming Arizona defense. On offense, Kurt Warner may not be a big step down from Matt Leinart at QB.
Who will win: Arizona (5)
Oakland Raiders (2-2, 1-1 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (2-3, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Oakland had the bye week; San Diego beat Denver, 41-3
A big part of Oakland's resurgence has been their ground game, which is ranked 2nd in the NFL. Interestingly enough, their passing game is ranked 30th. Oakland is about as average as an NFL team can be. They've scored 102 points, and given up 100. They're 1-1 on the road, and 1-1 at home. Hey, mediocrity is a big step up for this franchise after the last four seasons. San Diego is another team that is impossible to predict. Are they the team who smacked around by the Patriots, Packers and Chiefs? Are they the team that went into Denver and destroyed the Broncos? Only time will tell. But Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson always torches the Oakland defense. It's possible the players may have finally bought into coach Norv Turner's scheme. The AFC West is wide open, making this game vital to both clubs.
Who will win: San Diego (12)
New England Patriots (5-0, 2-0 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (5-0, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Cleveland, 34-17; Dallas beat Buffalo, 25-24.
As announcer Keith Jackson might proclaim, "Whoa nelly! We got a dandy of a gridiron match-up on our hands here!" New England is famous for jumping out to early leads; Dallas has been infamous this year for falling into an early hole. It's highly likely the Patriots will use the pass to set up their running game. They could come out in 4 and 5-receiver sets, to try to take advantage of a suspect Dallas secondary. Safety Roy Williams is a big liability in coverage, so look for Wes Welker and/or Ben Watson to have a big game. If Buffalo's defense gave Dallas QB Tony Romo that much trouble last week, just imagine what Bill Belichick has in mind for him. This will be a close game, but New England just has too much firepower. *Note to Jets coach Eric 'I squeal like a pig' Mangini, commissioner Goodell and the majority of the "lame-stream" media: Don't give the Patriots any extra motivation next time. Do you see what you've done, with all the carnage they've wrecked? They were a talented team with a lot of pride, not to mention respect for their head coach. If everyone left well enough alone, there wouldn't have been a problem. Now, the Patriots are determined to humiliate everyone in their path. I hope you're all happy.
Who will win: New England (13)
Sunday Night Game
New Orleans Saints (0-4, 0-2 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 2-0 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans lost to Carolina, 16-13; Seattle lost to Pittsburgh, 21-0.
I'm sorry, New Orleans, but you've killed me too many times this season. It's clear now that 2006 was a fluke. No, I'm not saying QB Drew Brees is overrated, or that Reggie Bush won't be a good pro, or that there was a reason Marques Colston was a 7th round pick. All I'm saying is that the Saints rode an emotional high last season, and other players on the team overachieved. Additionally, teams have a year of Sean Payton's offense on film now, so some wrinkles aren't working as well as last season. Opposing safeties are playing deep because they think their front 7 can stop the Saints running game (which they have been), so the big play opportunities aren't really there. The defense - not exactly the '85 Bears last year - isn't getting the job done this year, either. Seattle is always tough to beat at home. They are too good to have two bad weeks in a row.
Who will win: Seattle (8)
Monday Night Game
New York Giants (3-2, 1-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4, 1-1 at home)
Last Week: The Giants lost to the NY Jets, 35-24; Atlanta lost to Tennessee, 20-13.
After a rough start, the Giants are riding a 3-game winning streak. Considering the state of the NFC, this team - as many flaws as it has - may be able to make some noise. Atlanta QB Joey Harrington has been sacked 17 times, and struggled last week. I've tried to defend Harrington for the last five years (mainly because of his dapper first name), but it's time I admit he'll never be anything better than mediocre ... if he's lucky.
Who will win: New York (7)
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Red Sox/Indians: ALCS preview
Well, it's that time of year again. Two American League teams are battling for a spot in the World Series. The Red Sox were in first place from start to finish, pretty much. Meanwhile, the Indians haven't looked this good since the late 1990's. I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at the match-up, position by position, and make a fearless prediction.
Catcher: Boston's Jason Varitek (.255 batting average/17 Homer Runs/68 runs batted in) vs Cleveland's Victor Martinez (.301/25/114)
Varitek is not what he once was. Then again, is that really shocking? Sure, he keeps himself in tremendous shape, but catchers have a short shelf life. He's 35 now, and his production has declined recently. Still, 'Tek spolied Boston fans for a long time. Traditionally, catchers give teams little offensively, but Varitek has more than carried his fair share with the bat. Defensively, he's as good as they come. Put it this way: Curt Schilling let's him call the pitches. 'Nuff said. With Martinez, the Indians have one of the elite offensive catchers in baseball. Cleveland fans thought it would be a while before they saw someone to make them forget fan favorite Sandy Alomar. Now, Martinez looks like he has more great years ahead of him. However, Martinez has no postseason experience.
Advantage : Push
First Base: Boston's Kevin Youkillis (.288/16/83) vs Cleveland's Ryan Garko (.289/21/61)
Youk is the posterboy for Boston Red Sox baseball: he's patient at the plate, and can hit for power. And while he may not win the Gold Glove, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better defensive first baseman. Youk did not commit a sinlge error in 2006. As a bonus, he's versatile, as he can play third base. Garko is a hulk of a man. If he gets a hold of a pitch, it can go a long way. However, his on-base percentage is mediocre .359. He's a pull hitter, so if Sox pitching can stay outside on him, he shouldn't be able to do much damage.
Advantage: Boston
Second Base: Boston's Dustin Pedroia (.317/8/50) vs Cleveland's Josh Barfield (.243/3/50)
Pedroia has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox. People were calling for him to be benched or sent down to Pawtucket, but he responded by becoming one of the most consistent contributors on the team. While he does get ragged on for his mighty swing, the results are impressive. He may be named the AL Rookie of the Year. Barfield is a decent second baseman, but he made 17 errors this season, and doesn't offer much with the bat. You get the feeling Cleveland will look for a replacement sooner rather than later.
Advantage: Boston
Shortstop: Boston's Julio Lugo (.237/8/73) vs Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta (.270/21/72)
For the most part, Lugo was a major dissapointment in his first year in a Red Sox uniform. He signed a 4-year, $36 million contract, and the Boston fanbase was not exactly enthused over that transaction. His slow start didn't help, but 73 runs batted in is not too bad for someone at the top of the order. Also, he gives Boston a dimension they have sorely lacked throughout the majority of the past 100 years: speed. Lugo stole 33 bases, and was capable of igniting the Sox offense ... or killing a rally with a bad baserunning move. Peralta is one of the better offensive shortstops in baseball. He had been a #9 hitter for the tribe in the past, making his production even more impressive. Even though he's not in the bottom third of the lineup anymore, his production is still exceptional.
Advantage: Cleveland
Third Base: Mike Lowell (.324/21/120) vs Cleveland's Casey Blake (.270/18/78)
Lowell had a fantastic season for Boston. Criticized for tapering off in the second half of 2006, he maintained his performance level throughout the season. His prescence helped to make up for the decline of Manny Ramirez. While he did make 15 errors, Lowell's still as solid as they come at the hot corner. A class act all around, he's one of those guys who are easy to root for. He's come through with a big hit countless times this season. Blake is no slouch himself. Even though he was just 2 for 17 at the plate, Blake is a soild hitter, but he's not in Lowell's class.
Advantage: Boston
Outfield: Manny Ramirez (.296/20/88), Coco Crisp (.268/6/60) and JD Drew (.270/11/64) vs Kenny Lofton (.296/7/38), Grady Sizemore (.277/24/78), Frany Guitirez (.266/13/36)
Ramirez didn't match his typical numbers in part due to injuries. However, it was unsettling for members of Red Sox nation to watch Manny miss pitches he normall hit 430 feet. He looks like he found his groove in the series vs the Angels. Coco had a very nice season for Boston, and, like Lugo, gives the Red Sox an added dimension with his speed. He saves a lot of extra base hits with his speed and instincts in the outfield. Drew signed a 5-year, $70 million deal last winter, and it was a contract that was even more scrutinized than the one given to Lugo. Drew did not come close to matching expectations. He was just 2 for 11 vs the Angels. Boston will need him to step up if they are to advance. In Cleveland, Lofton has shown he still has some life in those 40-year old legs. He and Sabathia are the only two Indians to also appear in Cleveland's last postseason series (the 2001 AL Division Series vs Seattle). Lofton has a lot of postseason experience. Sizemore matched the hype this season, as he can do anything on a baseball field. In addition to his 24 homers, he swiped 33 bases, and plays a great centerfield. Guitirez? Well, it's either him or Trot Nixon in right field, but Nixon can't hit lefties.
Advantage: Boston
Designated Hitter: Boston's David Ortiz (.332/35/117) vs Cleveland's Travis Hafner (.266/24/100)
Ortiz almost seemed like he was going through the motions from April to August. He was producing with a high batting average, but his power numbers were done. Then, September rolled around, and Ortiz picked up the slack big-time, getting the clutch hits Boston fans are so accustomed to seeing. His great play has carried into the postseason. Hafner had a nice season, but his numbers have fallen from the last few seasons. Cleveland will need him to produce in big spots, which wasn't a problem at all for the Indians in the LDS against the Yankees.
Advantage: Boston
Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield vs CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd
Beckett has been the ace the Red Sox thought they were getting when they dealt away Hanley Ramirez. It will either be him or Sabathia who takes the AL Cy Young Award home. In his brief postseason career, Beckett has been dominant. Schilling's playoff resume' speaks for itself. He's been able to re-invent himself, going from a power pitcher to one who relies more on control and smarts. Daisuke could very well be the X-factor to this series. He had an up-and-down rookie season, mostly down after the all-star break. His outing vs the Angels in Game 2 of the LDS didn't exactly inspire confidence. Wakefield had a solid season, but he's either hit or miss. If he's on, he can look like an ace. If he's off, he may not make it out of the 4th inning.
Sabathia has had the best season of his young career. As good as Beckett has been, Sabathia is better in a lot of categories. Carmona has had a brilliant season. He looked shattered as a closer last season (particularly in back-to-back outings vs Boston). This year, he provides one half of what is arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Westbook needs to be around the strike zone to be effective. Byrd is another veteran junkballer.
Advantage: Push
Bullpen: For the majority of the season, Boston boasted the best bullpen in the American League. Still, Hideki Okajima showed signs of fatigue, although he looked spectacular vs the Angels. Trade deadline acquistion Eric Gagne doesn't put out any fires - he pours gasoline on them. Mike Timlin looked like he was washed-up, but now is showing his veteran determination. Manny Delcarmen may be on the verge of being a tremendous set-up man, and Javier Lopez is decent against lefties. Jon Lester will be the long reliever.
Cleveland closer Joe Borowski is erractic, yet effetive. He managed to save 45 games for the Tribe, but his 5.07 ERA can't be too re-assuring. Rafael Betancourt is a great set-up man. Aaron Fultz held lefties to a .191 batting average during the regular season. Cleveland's relief corps were great vs the Yankees, especially in Game 2, an 11-inning contest.
Advantage: Boston
Managers: Terry Francona vs Eric Wedge
Wedge has done a great job this year, but Francona has done the seemingly impossible. Boston fans - like most big city sports fans - will second-guess almost every decision a manager makes. He always seems to make the right call, and he uses all his players, keeping everyone fresh. Plus, he has a World Series title under his belt. Then again, Wedge and Franconca will be the first ones to admit that behind every great manager is a great ballclub.
Advantage: Boston
Prediction: This could be one of the better League Championship Series in some time. The Red Sox did post the best record in baseball, but this team has question marks. The bats can go ice cold at times, and Matsuzaka's performance has been erratic of late. Cleveland has a great 1-2 pitching punch with Sabathia and Carmona, and a pretty solid offense. They will need a solid outing from Westbrook and/or Byrd if they are to get to 4 wins before Boston. I just think Boston is clicking right now, and they have the depth to advance to the World Series.
Boston in 7 Games
Catcher: Boston's Jason Varitek (.255 batting average/17 Homer Runs/68 runs batted in) vs Cleveland's Victor Martinez (.301/25/114)
Varitek is not what he once was. Then again, is that really shocking? Sure, he keeps himself in tremendous shape, but catchers have a short shelf life. He's 35 now, and his production has declined recently. Still, 'Tek spolied Boston fans for a long time. Traditionally, catchers give teams little offensively, but Varitek has more than carried his fair share with the bat. Defensively, he's as good as they come. Put it this way: Curt Schilling let's him call the pitches. 'Nuff said. With Martinez, the Indians have one of the elite offensive catchers in baseball. Cleveland fans thought it would be a while before they saw someone to make them forget fan favorite Sandy Alomar. Now, Martinez looks like he has more great years ahead of him. However, Martinez has no postseason experience.
Advantage : Push
First Base: Boston's Kevin Youkillis (.288/16/83) vs Cleveland's Ryan Garko (.289/21/61)
Youk is the posterboy for Boston Red Sox baseball: he's patient at the plate, and can hit for power. And while he may not win the Gold Glove, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better defensive first baseman. Youk did not commit a sinlge error in 2006. As a bonus, he's versatile, as he can play third base. Garko is a hulk of a man. If he gets a hold of a pitch, it can go a long way. However, his on-base percentage is mediocre .359. He's a pull hitter, so if Sox pitching can stay outside on him, he shouldn't be able to do much damage.
Advantage: Boston
Second Base: Boston's Dustin Pedroia (.317/8/50) vs Cleveland's Josh Barfield (.243/3/50)
Pedroia has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox. People were calling for him to be benched or sent down to Pawtucket, but he responded by becoming one of the most consistent contributors on the team. While he does get ragged on for his mighty swing, the results are impressive. He may be named the AL Rookie of the Year. Barfield is a decent second baseman, but he made 17 errors this season, and doesn't offer much with the bat. You get the feeling Cleveland will look for a replacement sooner rather than later.
Advantage: Boston
Shortstop: Boston's Julio Lugo (.237/8/73) vs Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta (.270/21/72)
For the most part, Lugo was a major dissapointment in his first year in a Red Sox uniform. He signed a 4-year, $36 million contract, and the Boston fanbase was not exactly enthused over that transaction. His slow start didn't help, but 73 runs batted in is not too bad for someone at the top of the order. Also, he gives Boston a dimension they have sorely lacked throughout the majority of the past 100 years: speed. Lugo stole 33 bases, and was capable of igniting the Sox offense ... or killing a rally with a bad baserunning move. Peralta is one of the better offensive shortstops in baseball. He had been a #9 hitter for the tribe in the past, making his production even more impressive. Even though he's not in the bottom third of the lineup anymore, his production is still exceptional.
Advantage: Cleveland
Third Base: Mike Lowell (.324/21/120) vs Cleveland's Casey Blake (.270/18/78)
Lowell had a fantastic season for Boston. Criticized for tapering off in the second half of 2006, he maintained his performance level throughout the season. His prescence helped to make up for the decline of Manny Ramirez. While he did make 15 errors, Lowell's still as solid as they come at the hot corner. A class act all around, he's one of those guys who are easy to root for. He's come through with a big hit countless times this season. Blake is no slouch himself. Even though he was just 2 for 17 at the plate, Blake is a soild hitter, but he's not in Lowell's class.
Advantage: Boston
Outfield: Manny Ramirez (.296/20/88), Coco Crisp (.268/6/60) and JD Drew (.270/11/64) vs Kenny Lofton (.296/7/38), Grady Sizemore (.277/24/78), Frany Guitirez (.266/13/36)
Ramirez didn't match his typical numbers in part due to injuries. However, it was unsettling for members of Red Sox nation to watch Manny miss pitches he normall hit 430 feet. He looks like he found his groove in the series vs the Angels. Coco had a very nice season for Boston, and, like Lugo, gives the Red Sox an added dimension with his speed. He saves a lot of extra base hits with his speed and instincts in the outfield. Drew signed a 5-year, $70 million deal last winter, and it was a contract that was even more scrutinized than the one given to Lugo. Drew did not come close to matching expectations. He was just 2 for 11 vs the Angels. Boston will need him to step up if they are to advance. In Cleveland, Lofton has shown he still has some life in those 40-year old legs. He and Sabathia are the only two Indians to also appear in Cleveland's last postseason series (the 2001 AL Division Series vs Seattle). Lofton has a lot of postseason experience. Sizemore matched the hype this season, as he can do anything on a baseball field. In addition to his 24 homers, he swiped 33 bases, and plays a great centerfield. Guitirez? Well, it's either him or Trot Nixon in right field, but Nixon can't hit lefties.
Advantage: Boston
Designated Hitter: Boston's David Ortiz (.332/35/117) vs Cleveland's Travis Hafner (.266/24/100)
Ortiz almost seemed like he was going through the motions from April to August. He was producing with a high batting average, but his power numbers were done. Then, September rolled around, and Ortiz picked up the slack big-time, getting the clutch hits Boston fans are so accustomed to seeing. His great play has carried into the postseason. Hafner had a nice season, but his numbers have fallen from the last few seasons. Cleveland will need him to produce in big spots, which wasn't a problem at all for the Indians in the LDS against the Yankees.
Advantage: Boston
Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield vs CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd
Beckett has been the ace the Red Sox thought they were getting when they dealt away Hanley Ramirez. It will either be him or Sabathia who takes the AL Cy Young Award home. In his brief postseason career, Beckett has been dominant. Schilling's playoff resume' speaks for itself. He's been able to re-invent himself, going from a power pitcher to one who relies more on control and smarts. Daisuke could very well be the X-factor to this series. He had an up-and-down rookie season, mostly down after the all-star break. His outing vs the Angels in Game 2 of the LDS didn't exactly inspire confidence. Wakefield had a solid season, but he's either hit or miss. If he's on, he can look like an ace. If he's off, he may not make it out of the 4th inning.
Sabathia has had the best season of his young career. As good as Beckett has been, Sabathia is better in a lot of categories. Carmona has had a brilliant season. He looked shattered as a closer last season (particularly in back-to-back outings vs Boston). This year, he provides one half of what is arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Westbook needs to be around the strike zone to be effective. Byrd is another veteran junkballer.
Advantage: Push
Bullpen: For the majority of the season, Boston boasted the best bullpen in the American League. Still, Hideki Okajima showed signs of fatigue, although he looked spectacular vs the Angels. Trade deadline acquistion Eric Gagne doesn't put out any fires - he pours gasoline on them. Mike Timlin looked like he was washed-up, but now is showing his veteran determination. Manny Delcarmen may be on the verge of being a tremendous set-up man, and Javier Lopez is decent against lefties. Jon Lester will be the long reliever.
Cleveland closer Joe Borowski is erractic, yet effetive. He managed to save 45 games for the Tribe, but his 5.07 ERA can't be too re-assuring. Rafael Betancourt is a great set-up man. Aaron Fultz held lefties to a .191 batting average during the regular season. Cleveland's relief corps were great vs the Yankees, especially in Game 2, an 11-inning contest.
Advantage: Boston
Managers: Terry Francona vs Eric Wedge
Wedge has done a great job this year, but Francona has done the seemingly impossible. Boston fans - like most big city sports fans - will second-guess almost every decision a manager makes. He always seems to make the right call, and he uses all his players, keeping everyone fresh. Plus, he has a World Series title under his belt. Then again, Wedge and Franconca will be the first ones to admit that behind every great manager is a great ballclub.
Advantage: Boston
Prediction: This could be one of the better League Championship Series in some time. The Red Sox did post the best record in baseball, but this team has question marks. The bats can go ice cold at times, and Matsuzaka's performance has been erratic of late. Cleveland has a great 1-2 pitching punch with Sabathia and Carmona, and a pretty solid offense. They will need a solid outing from Westbrook and/or Byrd if they are to get to 4 wins before Boston. I just think Boston is clicking right now, and they have the depth to advance to the World Series.
Boston in 7 Games
Friday, October 5, 2007
Week 5 in the NFL
Ok, so my picks last week were absolutely horrendous. If I was smart enough to pick the home team underdogs, my predictions would have looked a lot better. But I didn't, so I just have to lick my wounds and move on to Week 5.
1PM Games
Atlanta Falcons (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (2-1; 0-1 at home)
Last week: Atlanta beat Houston, 26-16. Tennessee had the bye week
The Titans were supposed to be dreadful last season. Vince Young came through, and Tennessee surprised a lot of people with an 8-8 record. People then expected the Titans to take their game to another level. The season-long suspension of Adam 'Pac Man' Jones, however, made people shy away. NOW, the Titans have the league's second best rushing attack, and they are looking like they could very much turn out to be one of the conference's wid care teams. Oh, and did I mention they have the 2nd best run defense in football? Meanwhile, Atlanta finally notched it's first win in the post-Michael Vick erea. I wouldn't expect #2 this week. Atlanta is ranked 23rd in run defense, and Joey Harrington is still their quarterback. I repeat: Joey Harrington is STILL their quarterback.
Who will win: Titans (8)
Miami Dolphins (0-4; 0-2 on the road) at Houston Texans (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Oakland, 35-17. Houston lost to Atlant, 26-16
Miami is a team in shambles right now. They don't have anything going for them. Current University of Alabama coach Nick Saban left this sinking ship just in time. Miami lost to Oakland last week; Oakland was only riding a 12-game road losing streak, dating back to 2005. That's all. Houston has played well this season. Last week was a letdown, but it was the the first time the Texans have looked bad this season. Coach Gary Kubiak has helped QB Matt Schaub complete a staggering 74% of his passes.
Who will win: Houston (6)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1; 2-0 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2; 1-0 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville had the bye week. Kansas City beat San Diego, 30-16
Jacksonville has not been consistent this season. One week they can get run over by an opposing team (vs Tennessee) at home, then they can dominate a supposably strong team at home (at Denver). This week, they play a Kansas City team that is showing signs of life. After dropping their first two contests, KC has rebounded with back-to-back wins. Arrowhead Stadium gives the Chiefs an atmosphere similar to the ones some Southeast Conference college teams enjoy. Oh, and don't look now: but the AFC West is right there for the taking. Both teams can get a leg-up in the wild card race with a win this week.
Who will win: Kansas City (3)
Arizona Cardinals (2-2; 0-2 on the road) at St Louis Rams (0-4; 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Arizona beat Pittsburgh, 21-14. St Louis lost to Dallas, 35-7.
Arizona is starting to show why people have been tabbing them as 'sleepers' the last few years. Last week's win against a strong Pittsburgh team opened people's eyes.St Louis is crashing and burning big time. In a season where some expected them to contend for the NFC West title, they have instead suffered through poor play and devastating injuries. First, Pro Bowl left tackle Orland Pace was lost for the season, and now QB Marc Bulger is out with two broken ribs. The fact he was playing through the injury is a testament to his toughness. Unfortunately, running back Steven Jackson won't be able to do everythign himself. Wait, he's out again this week? ....
Who will win: Arizona (5)
Cleveland Browns (2-2; 0-1 on the road) at New England Patriots (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland beat Baltimore, 27-13. New England beat Cincinatti, 34-13.
The Browns seem to morph from week to week. One week they can look like a division champs. The next week they look like they putrid. Head coach Romeo Crennel deserves credit for squeezing out the most out of this roster. Speaking of 'RAC', he'll be returning to Foxboro for the first time since taking over as the Browns head coach in February 2005. He was the defensive coordinator for 3 Super Bowl wining teams in New England. Crennel and the Browns will get a great look at what they're trying to build on Sunday. They're a few years away from being great; the Patriots have been great for a few years.
Who will win: New England (14)
Carolina Panthers (2-2; 2-0 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (0-3; 0-1 at home)
Last Week: Carolina lost to Tampa Bay, 20-7. New Orleans had the bye week
The Panthers are another team that hasn't figured out who they are. That locker room is frustrated over the incosistent play. Last week against Tampa Bay, Carolina lost a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC South. As far as New Orleans goes, they can only hope the bye week cured all that has been ailing them. There have been no big plays offensively, no consistent running game, and the defense looks as bad as last year, if not worse. Other than that? The Saints are clicking on all cylinders. With Deuce McCallister lost for the season, running back Reggie Bush will need to prove to his critics that he is capable of being a full-time back, something that wasn't even asked of him at the University of Southern California. You have to wonder if New Orleans just rode an emotional high all of last season. With no effective running game, opposing defenses have been able to sit back, taking away the big play potential. Losing wide receiver Joe Horn in the offseason may have hurt the team more than they thought, as he was a great locker room leader. Still, I can't see the Saints going 0-4, so ...
Who will win: New Orleans (4)
New York Jets (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at New York Giants (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: The Jets lost to Buffalo, 17-14, the Giants beat Phiadelphia, 16-3
Remember when Jets QB Chad Pennington had a strong arm? Oh, you don't? Me either; probably because he NEVER has. His two interceptions last Sunday illustrated that point. I'm reminded of what my high school football coach told our quarterback: "You throw the ball like it's a damn cynder block." While Giants signal-caller Eli Manning is not an elite QB just yet, his team should be able to generate enough points in this one.
Who will win: New York Giants (10)
Seattle Seahawks (3-1; 1-1 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Seattle beat San Francisco, 23-3; Pittsburgh lost to Arizona, 21-14
In a rematch of Super Bowl XL, the two teams once again look evenly matched. Either one of these teams could make it back to the title game this year. Then again, because one of the teams is in the AFC, and one is in the NFC, I'll take the Steelers. And no, I don't care that the Cardinals beat the Steelers last week. What do I think about the Cardinals? Well, "They were how I thought they were! You want to crown them, go ahead and crown their ass! The Steelers let 'em off the hook!"
Who will win: Pittsburgh (12)
Detroit Lions (3-1; 1-1 on the road) at Washington Redskins (2-1; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Chicago, 37-27; Washington had the bye week
This much we know about Detroit: they are capable of putting up points in a hurry. They put up 34 points in the forth quarter, the most ever in that quarter in NFL history. Just so you know, the NFL's been around for 88 years or so. Washington will need to find ways to pressure QB John Kitna, who has been sacked 19 times in 4 games. The 'Skins may be without the services of speedy wideout Santana Moss, which is too bad, since the Lions pass defense is nothing to write home about.
Who will win: Washington (2)
4PM Games
Tampa Bay Buccanneers (3-1; 1-1 at home) at Indianapolis Colts (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Carolina, 20-7; Indianapolis beat Denver, 38-20
OK, I promised myself I'd pick Tampa Bay more often after they beat New Orleans. I said I'd pick them more often after they beat St Louis. I did again after they beat Carolina last Sunday. Unfortunately, they are playing the defending world champions on the road. The Colts have won 11 straight regular season home games. Oops.
Who will win: Indianapolis (11)
San Diego Chargers (1-3; 0-2 at home) at Denver Broncos (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: San Diego lost to Kansas City, 30-16; Denver lost to Indianapolis, 38-20
Just like I've been going against Tampa Bay all along, I've been waiting for the Chargers to stop looking like a shell of their former selves. Maybe it's the fact they have no weapons on offense outside of LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Maybe it's the fact they have Norv Turner (59-85 record as a head coach). Whatever it is, this Chargers season is going down the toilet faster than cottonelle. Still the AFC West is wide open, so the winner of this game will be right in the thick of things. Denver is at home. San Diego has looked putrid. I'll take Denver coach Mike Shanahan over Turner any day.
Who will win: Denver (9)
Baltimore Ravens (2-2; 0-2 on the road) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore lost to Cleveland, 27-13; San Francisco lost to Seattle, 23-3
Wait, the Ravens offense is struggling? Is that new this year?? Since Brian "God's gift to offensive football" Billick took over the Ravens in 1999, Baltimore's ranked in the top half of the league in points scored only 4 times. They've only broken the top 10 once in his 8 seasons at the helm. Don't give me that garbage about him 'reigning it in' and playing safe so his defense can win it for him. He's had years to find an adequate QB and some weapons at wide receiver, and has failed to do so. Oh, and now the Ravens defense isn't performing as well as in the past. Meanwhile, San Francisco stumbled badly the last two weeks. Starting QB Alex Smith is out for this week with a shoulder injury. Hyped tight end Vernon Davis is out, too. Running back Frank Gore doesn't look quite right, either. Other than that, the 49ers are on fire. AFC vs NFC. 'Nuff said.
Who will win: Batlimore (7)
Sunday Night Game
Chicago Bears (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Chicago lost to Detroit, 37-27; Green Bay beat Minnesota, 23-16
Nothing is going Chicago's way this season. Starting QB Rex Grossman has flamed out, running back Cedric Benson has not shown the capability to be the full-time back, and the defense has surrendered an average of 24 points per game, which is far too many for a team who lives and dies by their D. Things are going very well in Green Bay, but you can't tell me that you don't think Brett Favre will start tossing the ball wrecklessly if tempted. When these two teams meet up, you can throw the records away. I'd keep going, but the cliche' police are hauling me away ...
Who will win: Chicago (1)
*Sunday Night Game*
Dallas Cowboys (4-0; 2-0 at home) at Buffalo Bills (1-3; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas beat St Louis, 35-7; Buffalo beat New York Jets, 17-14
Buffalo finally won last week; don't expect the same this week. Dallas looks to be the class of the NFC. I know what I said about the whole 'AFC-NFC' team, but it won't matter. (Sorry, this is kind of weak analysis, I have a wedding to go to!)
Who will win: Dallas (13)
1PM Games
Atlanta Falcons (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (2-1; 0-1 at home)
Last week: Atlanta beat Houston, 26-16. Tennessee had the bye week
The Titans were supposed to be dreadful last season. Vince Young came through, and Tennessee surprised a lot of people with an 8-8 record. People then expected the Titans to take their game to another level. The season-long suspension of Adam 'Pac Man' Jones, however, made people shy away. NOW, the Titans have the league's second best rushing attack, and they are looking like they could very much turn out to be one of the conference's wid care teams. Oh, and did I mention they have the 2nd best run defense in football? Meanwhile, Atlanta finally notched it's first win in the post-Michael Vick erea. I wouldn't expect #2 this week. Atlanta is ranked 23rd in run defense, and Joey Harrington is still their quarterback. I repeat: Joey Harrington is STILL their quarterback.
Who will win: Titans (8)
Miami Dolphins (0-4; 0-2 on the road) at Houston Texans (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Oakland, 35-17. Houston lost to Atlant, 26-16
Miami is a team in shambles right now. They don't have anything going for them. Current University of Alabama coach Nick Saban left this sinking ship just in time. Miami lost to Oakland last week; Oakland was only riding a 12-game road losing streak, dating back to 2005. That's all. Houston has played well this season. Last week was a letdown, but it was the the first time the Texans have looked bad this season. Coach Gary Kubiak has helped QB Matt Schaub complete a staggering 74% of his passes.
Who will win: Houston (6)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1; 2-0 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2; 1-0 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville had the bye week. Kansas City beat San Diego, 30-16
Jacksonville has not been consistent this season. One week they can get run over by an opposing team (vs Tennessee) at home, then they can dominate a supposably strong team at home (at Denver). This week, they play a Kansas City team that is showing signs of life. After dropping their first two contests, KC has rebounded with back-to-back wins. Arrowhead Stadium gives the Chiefs an atmosphere similar to the ones some Southeast Conference college teams enjoy. Oh, and don't look now: but the AFC West is right there for the taking. Both teams can get a leg-up in the wild card race with a win this week.
Who will win: Kansas City (3)
Arizona Cardinals (2-2; 0-2 on the road) at St Louis Rams (0-4; 0-2 at home)
Last Week: Arizona beat Pittsburgh, 21-14. St Louis lost to Dallas, 35-7.
Arizona is starting to show why people have been tabbing them as 'sleepers' the last few years. Last week's win against a strong Pittsburgh team opened people's eyes.St Louis is crashing and burning big time. In a season where some expected them to contend for the NFC West title, they have instead suffered through poor play and devastating injuries. First, Pro Bowl left tackle Orland Pace was lost for the season, and now QB Marc Bulger is out with two broken ribs. The fact he was playing through the injury is a testament to his toughness. Unfortunately, running back Steven Jackson won't be able to do everythign himself. Wait, he's out again this week? ....
Who will win: Arizona (5)
Cleveland Browns (2-2; 0-1 on the road) at New England Patriots (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland beat Baltimore, 27-13. New England beat Cincinatti, 34-13.
The Browns seem to morph from week to week. One week they can look like a division champs. The next week they look like they putrid. Head coach Romeo Crennel deserves credit for squeezing out the most out of this roster. Speaking of 'RAC', he'll be returning to Foxboro for the first time since taking over as the Browns head coach in February 2005. He was the defensive coordinator for 3 Super Bowl wining teams in New England. Crennel and the Browns will get a great look at what they're trying to build on Sunday. They're a few years away from being great; the Patriots have been great for a few years.
Who will win: New England (14)
Carolina Panthers (2-2; 2-0 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (0-3; 0-1 at home)
Last Week: Carolina lost to Tampa Bay, 20-7. New Orleans had the bye week
The Panthers are another team that hasn't figured out who they are. That locker room is frustrated over the incosistent play. Last week against Tampa Bay, Carolina lost a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC South. As far as New Orleans goes, they can only hope the bye week cured all that has been ailing them. There have been no big plays offensively, no consistent running game, and the defense looks as bad as last year, if not worse. Other than that? The Saints are clicking on all cylinders. With Deuce McCallister lost for the season, running back Reggie Bush will need to prove to his critics that he is capable of being a full-time back, something that wasn't even asked of him at the University of Southern California. You have to wonder if New Orleans just rode an emotional high all of last season. With no effective running game, opposing defenses have been able to sit back, taking away the big play potential. Losing wide receiver Joe Horn in the offseason may have hurt the team more than they thought, as he was a great locker room leader. Still, I can't see the Saints going 0-4, so ...
Who will win: New Orleans (4)
New York Jets (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at New York Giants (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: The Jets lost to Buffalo, 17-14, the Giants beat Phiadelphia, 16-3
Remember when Jets QB Chad Pennington had a strong arm? Oh, you don't? Me either; probably because he NEVER has. His two interceptions last Sunday illustrated that point. I'm reminded of what my high school football coach told our quarterback: "You throw the ball like it's a damn cynder block." While Giants signal-caller Eli Manning is not an elite QB just yet, his team should be able to generate enough points in this one.
Who will win: New York Giants (10)
Seattle Seahawks (3-1; 1-1 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Seattle beat San Francisco, 23-3; Pittsburgh lost to Arizona, 21-14
In a rematch of Super Bowl XL, the two teams once again look evenly matched. Either one of these teams could make it back to the title game this year. Then again, because one of the teams is in the AFC, and one is in the NFC, I'll take the Steelers. And no, I don't care that the Cardinals beat the Steelers last week. What do I think about the Cardinals? Well, "They were how I thought they were! You want to crown them, go ahead and crown their ass! The Steelers let 'em off the hook!"
Who will win: Pittsburgh (12)
Detroit Lions (3-1; 1-1 on the road) at Washington Redskins (2-1; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Chicago, 37-27; Washington had the bye week
This much we know about Detroit: they are capable of putting up points in a hurry. They put up 34 points in the forth quarter, the most ever in that quarter in NFL history. Just so you know, the NFL's been around for 88 years or so. Washington will need to find ways to pressure QB John Kitna, who has been sacked 19 times in 4 games. The 'Skins may be without the services of speedy wideout Santana Moss, which is too bad, since the Lions pass defense is nothing to write home about.
Who will win: Washington (2)
4PM Games
Tampa Bay Buccanneers (3-1; 1-1 at home) at Indianapolis Colts (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Carolina, 20-7; Indianapolis beat Denver, 38-20
OK, I promised myself I'd pick Tampa Bay more often after they beat New Orleans. I said I'd pick them more often after they beat St Louis. I did again after they beat Carolina last Sunday. Unfortunately, they are playing the defending world champions on the road. The Colts have won 11 straight regular season home games. Oops.
Who will win: Indianapolis (11)
San Diego Chargers (1-3; 0-2 at home) at Denver Broncos (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: San Diego lost to Kansas City, 30-16; Denver lost to Indianapolis, 38-20
Just like I've been going against Tampa Bay all along, I've been waiting for the Chargers to stop looking like a shell of their former selves. Maybe it's the fact they have no weapons on offense outside of LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Maybe it's the fact they have Norv Turner (59-85 record as a head coach). Whatever it is, this Chargers season is going down the toilet faster than cottonelle. Still the AFC West is wide open, so the winner of this game will be right in the thick of things. Denver is at home. San Diego has looked putrid. I'll take Denver coach Mike Shanahan over Turner any day.
Who will win: Denver (9)
Baltimore Ravens (2-2; 0-2 on the road) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore lost to Cleveland, 27-13; San Francisco lost to Seattle, 23-3
Wait, the Ravens offense is struggling? Is that new this year?? Since Brian "God's gift to offensive football" Billick took over the Ravens in 1999, Baltimore's ranked in the top half of the league in points scored only 4 times. They've only broken the top 10 once in his 8 seasons at the helm. Don't give me that garbage about him 'reigning it in' and playing safe so his defense can win it for him. He's had years to find an adequate QB and some weapons at wide receiver, and has failed to do so. Oh, and now the Ravens defense isn't performing as well as in the past. Meanwhile, San Francisco stumbled badly the last two weeks. Starting QB Alex Smith is out for this week with a shoulder injury. Hyped tight end Vernon Davis is out, too. Running back Frank Gore doesn't look quite right, either. Other than that, the 49ers are on fire. AFC vs NFC. 'Nuff said.
Who will win: Batlimore (7)
Sunday Night Game
Chicago Bears (1-3; 0-2 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (4-0; 2-0 at home)
Last Week: Chicago lost to Detroit, 37-27; Green Bay beat Minnesota, 23-16
Nothing is going Chicago's way this season. Starting QB Rex Grossman has flamed out, running back Cedric Benson has not shown the capability to be the full-time back, and the defense has surrendered an average of 24 points per game, which is far too many for a team who lives and dies by their D. Things are going very well in Green Bay, but you can't tell me that you don't think Brett Favre will start tossing the ball wrecklessly if tempted. When these two teams meet up, you can throw the records away. I'd keep going, but the cliche' police are hauling me away ...
Who will win: Chicago (1)
*Sunday Night Game*
Dallas Cowboys (4-0; 2-0 at home) at Buffalo Bills (1-3; 1-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas beat St Louis, 35-7; Buffalo beat New York Jets, 17-14
Buffalo finally won last week; don't expect the same this week. Dallas looks to be the class of the NFC. I know what I said about the whole 'AFC-NFC' team, but it won't matter. (Sorry, this is kind of weak analysis, I have a wedding to go to!)
Who will win: Dallas (13)
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