1 PM Games
Buffalo Bills (5-5, 2-2 on the road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3, 3-2 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo lost to New England, 56-10; Jacksonville beat San Diego, 24-17.
Buffalo just didn't get taken to the woodshed last Sunday night. They got taken there, beaten with a 2 x 4, kicked, defecated on, and left for dead. Other than that, they held their own. The Jaguars aren't in the Patriots class, but they are still a playoff-caliber team. The Bills will again be without rookie running back Marshawn Lynch. Do you trust Buffalo quarterback JP Losman on the road? Me either.
Who will win: Jacksonville (12)
Houston Texans (5-5, 2-3 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (6-4, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Houston beat New Orleans, 23-10; Cleveland beat Baltimore, 33-30.
Houston is still at least a year away from competing for a playoff spot, especially in the very competitive AFC South. They have a young and improving defense. The 2007 Texans are definitely not the laughingstock of the league, especially with star receiver Andre Johnson healthy again. The Browns have quite a collection of talent themselves, and are coming off a huge win in Baltimore. Without Houston running back Ahmad Green playing, Cleveland will be able to focus on stopping QB Matt Schaub and the passing game.
Who will win: Cleveland (7)
Oakland Raiders (2-8, 1-4 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6, 2-3 at home)
Last Week: Oakland lost to Minnesota, 29-22; Kansas City lost to Indianapolis, 13-10.
The Patriots fan in me wants Oakland to win a few more games, which will help get the San Francisco 49ers a higher draft pick. Instead of the 49ers getting that pick, it will go to the Patriots to complete a trade made in last April's NFL Draft. Anyway, this won't be a week where Oakland takes on another win. Mainly because they suck, and KC is also due for a home win.
Who will win: Kansas City (10)
Seattle Seahawks (6-4, 1-3 on the road) at St Louis Rams (2-8, 0-4 at home)
Last Week: Seattle beat Chicago, 30-23; St Louis beat San Francisco, 13-9.
After the last two weeks, Seattle looks like they have re-established themselves as the clear cut favorite in the NFC West. The Seahawks are not an elite team by any measure, but the rest of the division is weak. The Rams have saved face with back-to-back wins. At least they won't go winless. I just can't see St Louis winning 3 games in a row, and Seattle is clicking right now.
Who will win: Seattle (11)
Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 1-4 on the road) at New York Giants (7-3, 3-2 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota beat Oakland, 29-22; New York beat Detroit, 16-10.
Minnesota's rookie sensation - running back Adrian Peterson - may return to action this week. He's by far the Vikings' best offensive player. Even if he does play, his team will have their hands full. The Giants have one of the better run defenses in football, and they also know how to get after the opposing quarterback: they lead the NFL with 34 sacks. If the Giants can stop the run early and often, that will mean Tavaris Jackson - the proud owner of a dreadful 55.5 Quarterback rating - will have to carry Minnesota. New York also has the home field advantage.
Who will win: New York (9)
Washington Redskins (5-5, 2-3 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Washington lost to Dallas, 28-23; Tampa Bay beat Atlanta, 31-7.
The 'Skins have lost in consecutive weeks, both to division opponents. On the plus side, QB Jason Campbell has looked very good. Unfortunately, their defense has looked very vulnerable, especially against the pass. Those three sentences comprise the "reverse compliment sandwich". Anyway, I think Washington should be able to squeak this game out. If they can stop Tampa wide receiver Joey Galloway from making big plays, they should be just fine.
Who will win: Washington (1)
New Orleans Saints (4-6, 2-3 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-6, 0-4 at home)
Last Week: New Orleans lost to Houston, 23-10; Carolina lost to Green Bay, 31-17.
This a match up of two teams that have had roller coaster seasons. New Orleans lost their first 4 games, won their next 4, and now have lost the last two weeks. Carolina has yet to win a home game. I just think the Panthers have the better defense, and they're playing in Carolina, where they are way over-due for a win.
Who will win: Carolina (2)
Tennessee Titans (6-4, 3-2 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7, 2-3 at home)
Last week: Tennessee lost to Denver, 34-20; Cincinnati lost to Arizona, 35-27.
Tennessee got shredded last week by the Broncos, both by Denver's passing and rushing attack. They face a more talented offense this week with the Bengals. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, they have not been able to protect QB Carson Palmer long enough for him to hit his play-making-wide receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. With the potential return of Titans monster defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, plus the stellar play of Kyle Vanden Bosch, this may not be the week Cincinnati has an explosion.
Who will win: Tennessee (5)
4 PM Games
San Francisco 49ers (2-8, 1-4 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco lost to St Louis, 13-9; Arizona beat Cincinnati, 35-27.
San Francisco has lost 8 straight games. What could possibly make someone think this is the week they snap that streak? I don't know either. The Cardinals are playing pretty well, and the division title is still within their grasp. If they want to capture the NFC West, they need to keep pace with Seattle by trouncing an awful opponent.
Who will win: Arizona (8)
Baltimore Ravens (4-6, 1-4 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (5-5, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore lost to Cleveland, 33-30; San Diego lost to Jacksonville, 24-17.
Baltimore just seems to be a ticking time bomb right now. Coach Brian Billick doesn't have the answers; the defense is a shell of its former self; and the team is one loss away from assuring themselves they won't make the playoffs. Plus, Baltimore has been putrid on the road. San Diego is at a crossroads. The Chiefs and Raiders have fallen off the map, so it's between San Diego and Denver for the AFC West title. This is a game the Chargers need to win more than the Ravens.
Who will win: San Diego (3)
Denver Broncos (5-5, 2-2 on the road) at Chicago Bears (4-6, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Denver beat Tennessee, 34-20; Chicago lost to Seattle, 30-23.
Broncos coach Mike Shanahan put together a great game plan last Monday night vs the Titans. It reiterated the fact that Denver is unbeatable if they build a double digit lead. A good running game will help take the load off of QB Jay Cutler, who looked masterful last week. The Bears have struggled stopping the run, as evidenced by them giving up 125 rushing yards per contest. Denver is in a battle for the division title, while the Bears are definitely the latest victim of a Super Bowl hangover.
Who will win: Denver (4)
Sunday Night Game
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5, 3-2 on the road) at New England Patriots (10-0, 4-0 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia beat Miami, 17-7; New England beat Buffalo, 56-10.
Philadelphia is playing their best football of the season, and they still aren't all that impressive. To make matters worse, QB Donovan McNabb will sit this one out, meaning A.J. Feeley will start in his place. I don't think running back Brian Westbrook will be able to carry his team to a miraculous victory. The Patriots have outscored opponents by a total of 254 points through their first 10 games, meaning the average margin of victory is 25.4. Maybe that 22-point spread isn't so ridiculous after all.
Who will win: New England (16)
Monday Night Game
Miami Dolphins (0-10, 0-5 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3, 5-0 at home)
Last Week: Miami lost to Philadelphia, 17-7; Pittsburgh lost to New York Jets, 19-16.
The tragic number is 6 for Miami. They have 6 more games until they become the 2nd team ever to go winless, joining the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At least the Bucs were only 0-14 that season, and they were an expansion team, so they had that excuse going for them. What's Miami's going to be if they can't get a win? Time will tell if they can avoid that embarrassment. For the time being, 0-11 is a near certainty, as Pittsburgh is one of the top 5 teams in football. Plus, they lost to a woeful Jets team last week, and they won't make it consecutive losses to two lousy teams. The Steelers have home field advantage for a prime time game. That factor can't be overlooked either.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (15)
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 12 in the NFL (Thanksgiving Day Games)
Due to a S.N.A.F.U last week, I accidentally deleted my Week 11 blog post right before posting it. Oops. As fate would have it, I had a really solid performance, winning 12 of the 16 games, and getting 117 out of a possible 136 points. Think I'm lying? Lucky for you, I'll just copy and paste the results from my Yahoo! pick 'em league:
• JACKSONVILLE San Diego 8 Correct Jac 24, SD 17
• Cleveland BALTIMORE 7 Correct Cle 33, Bal 30
New York (NYG) • DETROIT 3 Incorrect NYG 16, Det 10
HOUSTON • New Orleans 4 Incorrect Hou 23, NO 10
• GREEN BAY Carolina 14 Correct GB 31, Car 17
• INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 15 Correct Ind 13, KC 10
• MINNESOTA Oakland 6 Correct Min 29, Oak 22
• PHILADELPHIA Miami 13 Correct Phi 17, Mia 7
• Tampa Bay ATLANTA 9 Correct TB 31, Atl 7
• CINCINNATI Arizona 2 Incorrect Ari 35, Cin 27
• Pittsburgh NEW YORK (NYJ) 10 Incorrect NYJ 19, Pit 16
• DALLAS Washington 12 Correct Dal 28, Was 23
• St. Louis SAN FRANCISCO 1 Correct StL 13, SF 9
• SEATTLE Chicago 11 Correct Sea 30, Chi 23
• New England BUFFALO 16 Correct NE 56, Buf 10
• DENVER Tennessee 5 Correct Den 34, Ten 20
Not too bad, if I do say so myself. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-11. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 11 : 884 points out of a possible 1,251 (70.7%)
Weeks 3 - 11 : 683 points out of a possible 979 (69.8%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 11: 98 wins, 61 losses (61.6%)
Weeks 3 - 11: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)
Anyhow, here are my Thanksgiving Day picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 16 means I'm as sure as I can be. The remaining 13 games will be broken down in a few days. Happy Thanksgiving!
Green Bay Packers (9-1, 4-0 on the road) at Detroit Lions (6-4, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Carolina, 31-17; Detroit lost to New York Giants, 16-10.
For the first half of the season, I would often walk away after watching a Packers game asking myself "How the F$%* did they pull that one out?". The Packers were always 1 or 2 plays away from losing. That's most of the games in the NFL, and the Packers have won almost all of them. Lately, however, Green Bay is blowing lesser opponents out. Detroit's major flaw - the inability to protect quarterback Jon Kitna - has been evident the past two Sundays. Kitna has been sacked 7 times, but has been pressured on dozens of drop backs. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz likes to attack defenses with a vertical passing game, and that requires the offensive line to hold their blocks a few seconds longer. Green Bay can pressure the passer, as evidenced by their 28 sacks this season. Detroit has lost 3 in a row on Thanksgiving: I'd look for this to be number 4.
Who will win: Green Bay (6)
New York Jets (2-8, 0-4 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: New York beat Pittsburgh, 19-16; Dallas beat Washington, 28-23.
New York had the upset of the Week last Sunday, as they stunned everyone by beating the Steelers in overtime. I'm reminded of what Hall of Fame baseball player Jim 'Catfish' Hunter once said: "The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." That quote applies to the Jets here. There is no way they beat two top-5 teams in consecutive weeks. The NFC hasn't had truly elite teams in recent seasons. That's obviously changed this year, as Dallas and Green Bay are clearly title contenders. The Cowboys have 15 interceptions, good for second most in the league. They could force young Jets QB Kellen Clemens into some bad decisions. As long as Dallas avoids disastrous turnovers themselves, this game should be over by halftime.
Who will win: Dallas (14)
Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 4-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 2-3 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis beat Kansas City, 13-10; Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay, 31-7.
The Colts gutted out a win last week. The seemingly impossible happened right before the eyes of Indianapolis fans: Peyton Manning and the offense was anemic, kicker Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, and the Colts nearly lost to a team that had a 4-5 record entering the game. Did I mention the Colts were playing at home? This week should be easier, as the Falcons are one of the worst teams in football. If the turkey doesn't put you to sleep, this game will.
Who will win: Indianapolis (13)
• JACKSONVILLE San Diego 8 Correct Jac 24, SD 17
• Cleveland BALTIMORE 7 Correct Cle 33, Bal 30
New York (NYG) • DETROIT 3 Incorrect NYG 16, Det 10
HOUSTON • New Orleans 4 Incorrect Hou 23, NO 10
• GREEN BAY Carolina 14 Correct GB 31, Car 17
• INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 15 Correct Ind 13, KC 10
• MINNESOTA Oakland 6 Correct Min 29, Oak 22
• PHILADELPHIA Miami 13 Correct Phi 17, Mia 7
• Tampa Bay ATLANTA 9 Correct TB 31, Atl 7
• CINCINNATI Arizona 2 Incorrect Ari 35, Cin 27
• Pittsburgh NEW YORK (NYJ) 10 Incorrect NYJ 19, Pit 16
• DALLAS Washington 12 Correct Dal 28, Was 23
• St. Louis SAN FRANCISCO 1 Correct StL 13, SF 9
• SEATTLE Chicago 11 Correct Sea 30, Chi 23
• New England BUFFALO 16 Correct NE 56, Buf 10
• DENVER Tennessee 5 Correct Den 34, Ten 20
Not too bad, if I do say so myself. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-11. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 11 : 884 points out of a possible 1,251 (70.7%)
Weeks 3 - 11 : 683 points out of a possible 979 (69.8%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 11: 98 wins, 61 losses (61.6%)
Weeks 3 - 11: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)
Anyhow, here are my Thanksgiving Day picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 16 means I'm as sure as I can be. The remaining 13 games will be broken down in a few days. Happy Thanksgiving!
Green Bay Packers (9-1, 4-0 on the road) at Detroit Lions (6-4, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Carolina, 31-17; Detroit lost to New York Giants, 16-10.
For the first half of the season, I would often walk away after watching a Packers game asking myself "How the F$%* did they pull that one out?". The Packers were always 1 or 2 plays away from losing. That's most of the games in the NFL, and the Packers have won almost all of them. Lately, however, Green Bay is blowing lesser opponents out. Detroit's major flaw - the inability to protect quarterback Jon Kitna - has been evident the past two Sundays. Kitna has been sacked 7 times, but has been pressured on dozens of drop backs. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz likes to attack defenses with a vertical passing game, and that requires the offensive line to hold their blocks a few seconds longer. Green Bay can pressure the passer, as evidenced by their 28 sacks this season. Detroit has lost 3 in a row on Thanksgiving: I'd look for this to be number 4.
Who will win: Green Bay (6)
New York Jets (2-8, 0-4 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: New York beat Pittsburgh, 19-16; Dallas beat Washington, 28-23.
New York had the upset of the Week last Sunday, as they stunned everyone by beating the Steelers in overtime. I'm reminded of what Hall of Fame baseball player Jim 'Catfish' Hunter once said: "The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." That quote applies to the Jets here. There is no way they beat two top-5 teams in consecutive weeks. The NFC hasn't had truly elite teams in recent seasons. That's obviously changed this year, as Dallas and Green Bay are clearly title contenders. The Cowboys have 15 interceptions, good for second most in the league. They could force young Jets QB Kellen Clemens into some bad decisions. As long as Dallas avoids disastrous turnovers themselves, this game should be over by halftime.
Who will win: Dallas (14)
Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 4-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 2-3 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis beat Kansas City, 13-10; Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay, 31-7.
The Colts gutted out a win last week. The seemingly impossible happened right before the eyes of Indianapolis fans: Peyton Manning and the offense was anemic, kicker Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, and the Colts nearly lost to a team that had a 4-5 record entering the game. Did I mention the Colts were playing at home? This week should be easier, as the Falcons are one of the worst teams in football. If the turkey doesn't put you to sleep, this game will.
Who will win: Indianapolis (13)
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Week 10 in the NFL
Last week was so-so for me, as I went 9-5, accumulating 72 out of a possible 105 points. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-9. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 9 : 717 points out of a possible 1,010 (71%)
Weeks 3 - 9 : 516 points out of a possible 738 (69.9%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 9: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)
Weeks 3 - 9: 62 wins, 37 losses (62.6%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 10 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Cleveland Browns (5-3, 1-2 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-0 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland beat Seattle, 33-30; Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, 38 - 7.
They were supposed to be re-building this year, but no one told the Cleveland Browns. Here we are in Week 10, and the team is very much in the AFC playoff picture. With quarterback Derek Anderson, wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II all emerging at once, fans are excited in the Buckeye State. This week, however, the Browns could be running into a buzz saw. The Steelers have to be considered the third best team in football. Pittsburgh is giving up the fewest passing yards per game, while the Browns are allowing the most. I'd look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to have big days, as the Steelers win a tight game.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (12)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (7-1, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota beat San Diego, 35-17; Green Bay beat Kansas City, 33-22.
Minnesota's rookie running back Adrian Peterson is setting the league on fire. He only showed mere flashes of his brilliance back at the University of Oklahoma, but he is carrying the Vikings offense right now. Unfortunately, Green Bay doesn't make it easy for opposing ball-carriers, as they yield only 93.8 rushing yards per contest. Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson - the two potential starting QB's for the Vikes - will need to make big plays in the passing game to take the load off Peterson. Despite their strong showing last week, Minnesota still allows the 2nd most passing yards per game. Brett Favre and his receivers could have a field day.
Who will win: Green Bay (11)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (5-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia lost to Dallas, 38-17; Washington beat New York Jets, 23-20.
Ex-Toronto Blue Jay Shea Hillenbrand once wrote the following on the clubhouse chalkboard: "This is a sinking ship". Some on the Eagles must be tempted right now to echo that statement. The Eagles have looked like shadows of their former selves, from QB Donovan McNabb to the underachieving defense, to coach Andy Reid. The Redskins could deliver a knockout punch to their fierce division rival this weekend. With the way Washington rebounded last week against the Jets, they may have enough swagger to do just that.
Who will win: Washington (10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3, 3-1 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville lost to New Orleans, 41-24; Tennessee beat Carolina, 20-7.
Last week, Jacksonville looked really bad for the first time all season. They still have a great running game, but have looked much more vulnerable stopping the run then in years past. The Titans are winning by pounding the ball, and playing smothering defense. Highly-touted QB Vince Young hasn't even played well yet, throwing 8 interceptions to just 3 touchdowns. Still, he's a tremendous leader. Tennessee ran all over Jacksonville in the season opener, and the same could happen this weekend. Plus, it's a home game for the Titans.
Who will win: Tennessee (7)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-4, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta beat San Francisco, 20-16; Carolina lost to Tennessee, 20-7.
Atlanta QB Joey Harrington was the 3rd overall pick in the 2002 Draft. Carlonia's David Carr was the 1st overall pick that year. Harrington is with his third different team, Carr his second. Safe to say these two guys aren't going to be inducted in Canton anytime soon. It's just too bad Carr is out with an injury, otherwise this would be a painful reminder for Lions and Texans fans of front office blunders. The Falcons are playing out the string and preparing for 2008, while the Panthers could still win the NFC South. Carolina will need to clean up it's act quickly, and it must start this week.
Who will win: Carolina (6)
Denver Broncos (3-5, 1-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Detroit, 44-7; Kansas City lost to Green Bay, 33-22.
Denver's season is spiraling out of control. The defense - traditionally one of the best in football - has been putrid this season, allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL, while giving up 28 points per contest. Kansas City isn't head and shoulders above Denver, and will be without workhorse running back Larry Johnson. Still, KC running back Priest Holmes will be playing like it's 2003. You heard it here first ... or maybe you heard it somewhere else. Either way, the Chiefs should take this one.
Last Week: Kansas City (9)
Buffalo Bills (4-4, 1-2 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-8, 0-4 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo beat Cincinnati, 33-21; Miami had the bye week.
While there's a humongous gap between the two teams, the Bills are the undisputed second best team in the AFC East after the Patriots. If not for Adrian Peterson, Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch would be receiving a ton of accolades for his performance. He has carried the load offensively, and wide receiver Lee Evans decided to produce all of a sudden. The football Gods do not look favorably upon jealousy. When retired Dolphins coach Don Shula said that the 2007 Patriots should have an asterisk next to any accomplishment, he made people hate the 1972 Miami team even more - if such a thing is possible. I'm thinking the average fan wouldn't mind seeing the 2007 squad go winless.
Who will win: Buffalo (8)
St Louis Rams (0-8, 0-4 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: St Louis had the bye week; New Orleans beat Jacksonville, 41-24.
If not for the Dolphins, the Rams would be the worst team in the NFL. It seems like just yesterday that they had the most powerful offense in football. Now, they can only muster 12.4 points per game, the lowest total in the NFL. I don't think this is the week they get in the win column, as the Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league. Left for dead after an 0-4 start, New Orleans has had a resurgence, and is thinking about the division title again. I'd look for QB Drew Brees to have a big day.
Who will win: New Orleans (14)
4PM Games
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Buffalo, 33-21; Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh, 38-7.
The Bengals may have bottomed out last week when they blew a lead in the 4th quarter vs the Bills. The Bengals can't stop anyone on defense, and their offense is not nearly good enough to carry the team. Speaking of hitting rock bottom, the Ravens may have done just that last week on Monday Night Football, when they were creamed by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is looking to save face, while Baltimore is looking to crawl it's way back into the playoff picture. While I think they're overrated, I have to go with Baltimore because there is still a solid core of veteran leaderships, and they're playing at home.
Who will win: Baltimore (5)
Chicago Bears (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-6, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Chicago had the bye week; Oakland lost to Houston, 24-17.
Chicago is the latest victim of a Super Bowl hangover. The team just hasn't looked right all season. Brian Griese is not the permanent answer at quarterback, and hasn't been any better than Rex Grossman was. The duo has combined for 16 interceptions this year, the most out of any NFL team. Granted, the NFC is wide open, but the Bears can really only afford to lose a maximum of 2 games the rest of the year if they want to make the postseason. On the bright side, the defense has recorded 25 sacks, good for second most in the NFL. If they can pressure Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper, the secondary could make a few big plays.
Who will win: Chicago (4)
Dallas Cowboys (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas beat Philadelphia, 38-17; New York had the bye week.
Dallas needs to win this game to keep pace with Green Bay in the race for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense and defense in the NFC. This week won't be easy, however, as the Giants are on a six-game winning streak. Cowboys QB Tony Romo can get happy feet in the pocket when he's pressured, and the Giants have 30 sacks, the most in football. The home field advantage could be the difference in this game.
Who will win: New York (1)
Detroit Lions (6-2, 2-2 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Denver, 44-7; Arizona lost to Tampa Bay, 17-10.
Detroit is having their best season in over a decade. The defense - thought to be the Achilles heel of the team - is playing very well over the past month. However, opposing offenses have been able to move the ball through the air on the Lions. If the offensive line can give Cards QB Kurt Warner ample time, he could hit star receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Detroit has to slip up a few more times this season - why not this week?
Who will win: Arizona (2)
Sunday Night Game
Indianapolis Colts (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis lost to New England, 24-20; San Diego lost to Minnesota, 35-17.
The Colts had the Patriots on the ropes last week, but couldn't deliver the knockout punch. This week, Peyton Manning and the Colts offense faces another team that has given them problems over the years. The Chargers defense made headlines last week for all the wrong reasons, as they allowed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson to rack up 296 rushing yards, an NFL record. You can't expect the Chargers to play that poorly two weeks in a row, but Colts running back Joseph Addai is a brilliant runner in his own right. Home field or not, I just can't see the Colts losing two in a row.
Who will win: Indianapolis (3)
Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers (2-6, 1-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco lost to Atlanta, 20-16; Seattle lost to Cleveland, 33-30.
The 49ers are destined for a top 5 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, which is music to the ears of New England Patriots fans. Instead of getting a franchise player, San Fran will watch the rich get richer, as the Patriots own that selection. In the meantime, the 49ers can drop the pick of a few slots by winning some games. I just wouldn't expect it to be this week. Seattle is hanging on for dear life in the NFC West, the worst division in football. The Seahawks are very tough to beat at home, especially for the 49ers, and especially on Monday Night Football.
Who will win: Seattle (13)
Weeks 1 - 9 : 717 points out of a possible 1,010 (71%)
Weeks 3 - 9 : 516 points out of a possible 738 (69.9%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 9: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)
Weeks 3 - 9: 62 wins, 37 losses (62.6%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 10 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Cleveland Browns (5-3, 1-2 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-0 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland beat Seattle, 33-30; Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, 38 - 7.
They were supposed to be re-building this year, but no one told the Cleveland Browns. Here we are in Week 10, and the team is very much in the AFC playoff picture. With quarterback Derek Anderson, wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II all emerging at once, fans are excited in the Buckeye State. This week, however, the Browns could be running into a buzz saw. The Steelers have to be considered the third best team in football. Pittsburgh is giving up the fewest passing yards per game, while the Browns are allowing the most. I'd look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to have big days, as the Steelers win a tight game.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (12)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (7-1, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota beat San Diego, 35-17; Green Bay beat Kansas City, 33-22.
Minnesota's rookie running back Adrian Peterson is setting the league on fire. He only showed mere flashes of his brilliance back at the University of Oklahoma, but he is carrying the Vikings offense right now. Unfortunately, Green Bay doesn't make it easy for opposing ball-carriers, as they yield only 93.8 rushing yards per contest. Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson - the two potential starting QB's for the Vikes - will need to make big plays in the passing game to take the load off Peterson. Despite their strong showing last week, Minnesota still allows the 2nd most passing yards per game. Brett Favre and his receivers could have a field day.
Who will win: Green Bay (11)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (5-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia lost to Dallas, 38-17; Washington beat New York Jets, 23-20.
Ex-Toronto Blue Jay Shea Hillenbrand once wrote the following on the clubhouse chalkboard: "This is a sinking ship". Some on the Eagles must be tempted right now to echo that statement. The Eagles have looked like shadows of their former selves, from QB Donovan McNabb to the underachieving defense, to coach Andy Reid. The Redskins could deliver a knockout punch to their fierce division rival this weekend. With the way Washington rebounded last week against the Jets, they may have enough swagger to do just that.
Who will win: Washington (10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3, 3-1 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville lost to New Orleans, 41-24; Tennessee beat Carolina, 20-7.
Last week, Jacksonville looked really bad for the first time all season. They still have a great running game, but have looked much more vulnerable stopping the run then in years past. The Titans are winning by pounding the ball, and playing smothering defense. Highly-touted QB Vince Young hasn't even played well yet, throwing 8 interceptions to just 3 touchdowns. Still, he's a tremendous leader. Tennessee ran all over Jacksonville in the season opener, and the same could happen this weekend. Plus, it's a home game for the Titans.
Who will win: Tennessee (7)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-4, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta beat San Francisco, 20-16; Carolina lost to Tennessee, 20-7.
Atlanta QB Joey Harrington was the 3rd overall pick in the 2002 Draft. Carlonia's David Carr was the 1st overall pick that year. Harrington is with his third different team, Carr his second. Safe to say these two guys aren't going to be inducted in Canton anytime soon. It's just too bad Carr is out with an injury, otherwise this would be a painful reminder for Lions and Texans fans of front office blunders. The Falcons are playing out the string and preparing for 2008, while the Panthers could still win the NFC South. Carolina will need to clean up it's act quickly, and it must start this week.
Who will win: Carolina (6)
Denver Broncos (3-5, 1-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Detroit, 44-7; Kansas City lost to Green Bay, 33-22.
Denver's season is spiraling out of control. The defense - traditionally one of the best in football - has been putrid this season, allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL, while giving up 28 points per contest. Kansas City isn't head and shoulders above Denver, and will be without workhorse running back Larry Johnson. Still, KC running back Priest Holmes will be playing like it's 2003. You heard it here first ... or maybe you heard it somewhere else. Either way, the Chiefs should take this one.
Last Week: Kansas City (9)
Buffalo Bills (4-4, 1-2 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-8, 0-4 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo beat Cincinnati, 33-21; Miami had the bye week.
While there's a humongous gap between the two teams, the Bills are the undisputed second best team in the AFC East after the Patriots. If not for Adrian Peterson, Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch would be receiving a ton of accolades for his performance. He has carried the load offensively, and wide receiver Lee Evans decided to produce all of a sudden. The football Gods do not look favorably upon jealousy. When retired Dolphins coach Don Shula said that the 2007 Patriots should have an asterisk next to any accomplishment, he made people hate the 1972 Miami team even more - if such a thing is possible. I'm thinking the average fan wouldn't mind seeing the 2007 squad go winless.
Who will win: Buffalo (8)
St Louis Rams (0-8, 0-4 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: St Louis had the bye week; New Orleans beat Jacksonville, 41-24.
If not for the Dolphins, the Rams would be the worst team in the NFL. It seems like just yesterday that they had the most powerful offense in football. Now, they can only muster 12.4 points per game, the lowest total in the NFL. I don't think this is the week they get in the win column, as the Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league. Left for dead after an 0-4 start, New Orleans has had a resurgence, and is thinking about the division title again. I'd look for QB Drew Brees to have a big day.
Who will win: New Orleans (14)
4PM Games
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Buffalo, 33-21; Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh, 38-7.
The Bengals may have bottomed out last week when they blew a lead in the 4th quarter vs the Bills. The Bengals can't stop anyone on defense, and their offense is not nearly good enough to carry the team. Speaking of hitting rock bottom, the Ravens may have done just that last week on Monday Night Football, when they were creamed by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is looking to save face, while Baltimore is looking to crawl it's way back into the playoff picture. While I think they're overrated, I have to go with Baltimore because there is still a solid core of veteran leaderships, and they're playing at home.
Who will win: Baltimore (5)
Chicago Bears (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-6, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Chicago had the bye week; Oakland lost to Houston, 24-17.
Chicago is the latest victim of a Super Bowl hangover. The team just hasn't looked right all season. Brian Griese is not the permanent answer at quarterback, and hasn't been any better than Rex Grossman was. The duo has combined for 16 interceptions this year, the most out of any NFL team. Granted, the NFC is wide open, but the Bears can really only afford to lose a maximum of 2 games the rest of the year if they want to make the postseason. On the bright side, the defense has recorded 25 sacks, good for second most in the NFL. If they can pressure Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper, the secondary could make a few big plays.
Who will win: Chicago (4)
Dallas Cowboys (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas beat Philadelphia, 38-17; New York had the bye week.
Dallas needs to win this game to keep pace with Green Bay in the race for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense and defense in the NFC. This week won't be easy, however, as the Giants are on a six-game winning streak. Cowboys QB Tony Romo can get happy feet in the pocket when he's pressured, and the Giants have 30 sacks, the most in football. The home field advantage could be the difference in this game.
Who will win: New York (1)
Detroit Lions (6-2, 2-2 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Denver, 44-7; Arizona lost to Tampa Bay, 17-10.
Detroit is having their best season in over a decade. The defense - thought to be the Achilles heel of the team - is playing very well over the past month. However, opposing offenses have been able to move the ball through the air on the Lions. If the offensive line can give Cards QB Kurt Warner ample time, he could hit star receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Detroit has to slip up a few more times this season - why not this week?
Who will win: Arizona (2)
Sunday Night Game
Indianapolis Colts (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis lost to New England, 24-20; San Diego lost to Minnesota, 35-17.
The Colts had the Patriots on the ropes last week, but couldn't deliver the knockout punch. This week, Peyton Manning and the Colts offense faces another team that has given them problems over the years. The Chargers defense made headlines last week for all the wrong reasons, as they allowed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson to rack up 296 rushing yards, an NFL record. You can't expect the Chargers to play that poorly two weeks in a row, but Colts running back Joseph Addai is a brilliant runner in his own right. Home field or not, I just can't see the Colts losing two in a row.
Who will win: Indianapolis (3)
Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers (2-6, 1-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco lost to Atlanta, 20-16; Seattle lost to Cleveland, 33-30.
The 49ers are destined for a top 5 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, which is music to the ears of New England Patriots fans. Instead of getting a franchise player, San Fran will watch the rich get richer, as the Patriots own that selection. In the meantime, the 49ers can drop the pick of a few slots by winning some games. I just wouldn't expect it to be this week. Seattle is hanging on for dear life in the NFC West, the worst division in football. The Seahawks are very tough to beat at home, especially for the 49ers, and especially on Monday Night Football.
Who will win: Seattle (13)
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Week 9 in the NFL
After a few nice weeks, I had a disappointing performance last weekend. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-8. The breakdown is as follows:
Weeks 1 - 8 : 645 points out of a possible 905 (71.3%)
Weeks 3 - 8 : 444 points out of a possible 633 (70.1%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 8: 71 wins, 44 losses (61.7%)
Weeks 3 - 8: 53 wins, 32 losses (62.4%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 9 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 1-3 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona had the bye week; Tampa Bay lost to Jacksonville, 24-23.
Arizona started off strong, but has since faltered. If they want to remain in contention for the NFC West title, a win this week is critical. Then again, with linebacker Karlos Dansby out, Monty Beisel will start. Cardinals fans should be thinking what Patriots fans thought in 2005: "we're f@@ked". Tampa Bay is too good of a a team to suffer back-to-back home losses, especially against Arizona.
Who will win: Tampa Bay (13)
Denver Broncos (3-4, 1-1 on the road) at Detroit Lions (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Green Bay, 19-13; Detroit beat Chicago, 16-7.
The Broncos just aren't the team everyone thought they would be. They're an unimpressive 2-3 in Denver, where they used to enjoy arguable the best home field advantage in football. This week, they take their sorry act to Detroit, which may be the 3rd or 4th best team in the NFC. The Lions have been particularly impressive at home. I'd look for Lions coach Mike Martz to feature running back Kevin Jones prominently, as Detroit will look to capitalize on Denver's 32nd ranked rushing defense. If the Lions do go to their passing attack, they'll likely pick on all-pro cornerback Champ Bailey, who's banged up.
Who will win: Detroit (1)
Carolina Panthers (4-3, 4-0 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (5-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Carolina lost to Indianapolis, 31-7; Tennessee beat Oakland, 13-9.
Carolina hasn't been consistent since they won the NFC Title after the 2003 season. So it's not really surprising that they're undefeated on the road, but winless at home. Tennessee has the league's stingiest run stopping unit, yielding only 64 rushing yards per game. That means quarterback David Carr will be forced to make plays. I don't think that's going to happen. Additionally, the Titans are at home, and it's an AFC/NFC match up.
Who will win: Tennessee (10)
Green Bay Packers (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2. 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Denver, 19-13; Kansas City had the bye week.
This one is a contest between two of the NFL's better defenses. The Packers could very well be the class of the NFC, while the surprising Chiefs are leading the AFC West. 2007 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for them. I should pick the Packers, but Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in football at Arrowhead Stadium. It's and AFC/NFC game, and Green Bay has to slip up at least 2 or 3 more times this season - this looks like it could be one of those weeks.
Who will win: Kansas City (4)
San Diego Chargers (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: San Diego beat Houston, 35-10; Minnesota lost to Philadelphia, 23-16.
San Diego has ripped off 3 straight impressive wins after a woeful start. There is, however, the distinct possibility that the Vikings' stout run defense could bottle up Chargers all-pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson. It's games like this one that led to the team acquiring wide receiver Chris Chambers in a trade. I'd look for him and tight end Antonio Gates to have a big day, as their should be favorable match ups against Minnesota's secondary, who are giving up 288 yards passing per contest.
Who will win: San Diego (12)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2, 3-0 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Tampa Bay, 24-23; New Orleans beat San Francisco, 31-10.
Jacksonville squeaked by last week. Back-up QB Quinn Gray has not looked good at all, but that's to be expected. The Jaguars will need to depend on their running game and defense more than usual. New Orleans has revived their season after all the pundits left them for dead. I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about the Saints in this one.
Who will win: New Orleans (8)
San Francisco 49ers (2-5, 1-2 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 1-2 at home)
Last Week San Francisco lost to New Orleans, 31-10; Atlanta had the bye week.
*Warning - Cover your ears, Patriots haters* At this rate, New England could very well end up with a top 10 draft pick in 2008. The trade - made between the two teams in last April's NFL Draft - sets up New England nicely, and gives 49ers fans heartache. Anyway, the 49ers look helpless. They have one of the league's worst defenses, and the offense isn't reminding anyone of the glory days. Atlanta won't win any more than 5 games this year, but this should be one of them.
Who will win: Atlanta (2)
Washington Redskins (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-7, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Washington lost to New England, 52-7; New York lost to Buffalo, 13-3.
Washington suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history last Sunday. Still, they're a solid team, and it's unlikely that they'll flop two weeks in a row. The Jets are planning for 2008, as evidenced by their decision to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Running back Thomas Jones has been a disappointment, the defense has looked soft, and coach Eric Mangini doesn't look like a "Mangenius" anymore.
Who will win: Washington (11)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5, 0-3 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (3-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh, 24-13; Buffalo beat New York, 13-3.
Cincinnati is back to it's mid-1990's form, everyone! The team has a few stars, but is still underachieving big-time. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis' seat isn't hot - it's blistering. The Bengals need this game to save face. Buffalo has won 3 of it's past 4 games, but I wouldn't trust Bills QB JP Losman to make enough good decisions to lead his team to victory.
Who will win: Cincinnati (9)
4PM Games
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (4-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Seattle had the bye week; Cleveland beat St Louis, 27-20.
Seattle hasn't been overly impressive this season. Then again, that's 95% of NFL teams in 2007. Running back Shaun Alexander used to be dominant, but he seems to be on the decline. If Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren is the offensive genius he thinks he is, then he should have a good game plan coming off a bye week. Cleveland has been one of the NFL's surprise team. All of their young offensive talent has blossomed simultaneously. Their defense is giving up an average of 29 points per game, and the offense is putting up 28 points per game. Translation: they're usually a fun team to watch. Seattle is due for an all-around strong effort, and this could be their week.
Who will win: Seattle (5)
New England Patriots (8-0, 4-0 on the road) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Washington, 52-7; Indianapolis beat Carolina, 31-7.
The Patriots have been on fire for a longer duration than any team in recent NFL history. QB Tom Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss and the offense are on all pace to break records. This is the game the Patriots have been planning for since last January, when they lost the AFC title game in Indianapolis. The Colts are flying under the radar, which isn't easy when you're the undefeated, reigning Super Bowl Champions. In any other season, they would widely be considered the best team in football. This is the first time the Colts are home underdogs since Tony Dungy took over as coach in 2002. The Colts defense has improved, but I think they'll have their hands full with the Patriots arsenal. If New England protects the ball and holds Indy under 30 points, they should escape with the win. Plus, Colts receiver Marvin Harrison likely won't play. On the other hand, my reliable source - we'll call him "BM" - says it's just a case of gamesmanship, and Indy is trying to "psyche out" the Patriots. We shall see.
Who will win: New England (14)
Houston Texans (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-5, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Houston lost to San Diego, 35-10; Oakland lost to Tennessee, 13-9.
I'm surprised people aren't more excited for this game than the Pats/Colts tilt! All kidding aside, re-located New England and Indianapolis fans are hoping there is a small turnout for this one, so the game will be blacked out. That way, the Patriots/Colts game will be nationwide. With the way these two teams have played, can you blame them? Anyway, the Raiders are due for a win. Just remember: I didn't say it would be pretty.
Who will win: Oakland (3)
Sunday Night Game
Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Dallas had the bye week; Philadelphia beat Minnesota, 23-16.
Dallas is probably the best the NFC has to offer. The Cowboys have the conference's top rated offense and defense, and should be well-rested after a week off. Still, they should not take the Eagles lightly. The Eagles would like nothing better than to upset Dallas, and vault themselves back into the NFC playoff picture. You have to wonder if coach Any Reid's off-field problems effected the preparation of this team. Then again, Philly could rally around their leader, and put together a strong performance. I just think Dallas will get enough big plays on offense to pull out the victory.
Who will win: Dallas (6)
Monday Night Game
Baltimore Ravens (4-3, 1-3 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore had the bye week; Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati, 24-13.
Baltimore is mediocre at best, and their defense finally seems fed up with the offense's anemic performances. Still, there's the old saying, "if you live in a glass house, don't throw stones". That applies here because Baltimore's defense is not performing up to it's own standards. The fact that shutdown corner back Chris McAllister is unlikely to play doesn't help matters. At least QB Steve McNair is set to return this week, but he's a shell of his former self. I'd look for Pittsburgh to pound the ball early, and hit a long pass or two. Plus, the Steelers have the stingiest defense in football, and the game is at their place.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (7)
Weeks 1 - 8 : 645 points out of a possible 905 (71.3%)
Weeks 3 - 8 : 444 points out of a possible 633 (70.1%)
Wins and losses are as follows:
Weeks 1 - 8: 71 wins, 44 losses (61.7%)
Weeks 3 - 8: 53 wins, 32 losses (62.4%)
Anyhow, here are my Week 9 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.
1PM Games
Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 1-3 on the road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Arizona had the bye week; Tampa Bay lost to Jacksonville, 24-23.
Arizona started off strong, but has since faltered. If they want to remain in contention for the NFC West title, a win this week is critical. Then again, with linebacker Karlos Dansby out, Monty Beisel will start. Cardinals fans should be thinking what Patriots fans thought in 2005: "we're f@@ked". Tampa Bay is too good of a a team to suffer back-to-back home losses, especially against Arizona.
Who will win: Tampa Bay (13)
Denver Broncos (3-4, 1-1 on the road) at Detroit Lions (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Green Bay, 19-13; Detroit beat Chicago, 16-7.
The Broncos just aren't the team everyone thought they would be. They're an unimpressive 2-3 in Denver, where they used to enjoy arguable the best home field advantage in football. This week, they take their sorry act to Detroit, which may be the 3rd or 4th best team in the NFC. The Lions have been particularly impressive at home. I'd look for Lions coach Mike Martz to feature running back Kevin Jones prominently, as Detroit will look to capitalize on Denver's 32nd ranked rushing defense. If the Lions do go to their passing attack, they'll likely pick on all-pro cornerback Champ Bailey, who's banged up.
Who will win: Detroit (1)
Carolina Panthers (4-3, 4-0 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (5-2, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Carolina lost to Indianapolis, 31-7; Tennessee beat Oakland, 13-9.
Carolina hasn't been consistent since they won the NFC Title after the 2003 season. So it's not really surprising that they're undefeated on the road, but winless at home. Tennessee has the league's stingiest run stopping unit, yielding only 64 rushing yards per game. That means quarterback David Carr will be forced to make plays. I don't think that's going to happen. Additionally, the Titans are at home, and it's an AFC/NFC match up.
Who will win: Tennessee (10)
Green Bay Packers (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2. 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Denver, 19-13; Kansas City had the bye week.
This one is a contest between two of the NFL's better defenses. The Packers could very well be the class of the NFC, while the surprising Chiefs are leading the AFC West. 2007 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for them. I should pick the Packers, but Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in football at Arrowhead Stadium. It's and AFC/NFC game, and Green Bay has to slip up at least 2 or 3 more times this season - this looks like it could be one of those weeks.
Who will win: Kansas City (4)
San Diego Chargers (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: San Diego beat Houston, 35-10; Minnesota lost to Philadelphia, 23-16.
San Diego has ripped off 3 straight impressive wins after a woeful start. There is, however, the distinct possibility that the Vikings' stout run defense could bottle up Chargers all-pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson. It's games like this one that led to the team acquiring wide receiver Chris Chambers in a trade. I'd look for him and tight end Antonio Gates to have a big day, as their should be favorable match ups against Minnesota's secondary, who are giving up 288 yards passing per contest.
Who will win: San Diego (12)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2, 3-0 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Tampa Bay, 24-23; New Orleans beat San Francisco, 31-10.
Jacksonville squeaked by last week. Back-up QB Quinn Gray has not looked good at all, but that's to be expected. The Jaguars will need to depend on their running game and defense more than usual. New Orleans has revived their season after all the pundits left them for dead. I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about the Saints in this one.
Who will win: New Orleans (8)
San Francisco 49ers (2-5, 1-2 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 1-2 at home)
Last Week San Francisco lost to New Orleans, 31-10; Atlanta had the bye week.
*Warning - Cover your ears, Patriots haters* At this rate, New England could very well end up with a top 10 draft pick in 2008. The trade - made between the two teams in last April's NFL Draft - sets up New England nicely, and gives 49ers fans heartache. Anyway, the 49ers look helpless. They have one of the league's worst defenses, and the offense isn't reminding anyone of the glory days. Atlanta won't win any more than 5 games this year, but this should be one of them.
Who will win: Atlanta (2)
Washington Redskins (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at New York Jets (1-7, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Washington lost to New England, 52-7; New York lost to Buffalo, 13-3.
Washington suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history last Sunday. Still, they're a solid team, and it's unlikely that they'll flop two weeks in a row. The Jets are planning for 2008, as evidenced by their decision to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Running back Thomas Jones has been a disappointment, the defense has looked soft, and coach Eric Mangini doesn't look like a "Mangenius" anymore.
Who will win: Washington (11)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5, 0-3 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (3-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh, 24-13; Buffalo beat New York, 13-3.
Cincinnati is back to it's mid-1990's form, everyone! The team has a few stars, but is still underachieving big-time. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis' seat isn't hot - it's blistering. The Bengals need this game to save face. Buffalo has won 3 of it's past 4 games, but I wouldn't trust Bills QB JP Losman to make enough good decisions to lead his team to victory.
Who will win: Cincinnati (9)
4PM Games
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 1-2 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (4-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Seattle had the bye week; Cleveland beat St Louis, 27-20.
Seattle hasn't been overly impressive this season. Then again, that's 95% of NFL teams in 2007. Running back Shaun Alexander used to be dominant, but he seems to be on the decline. If Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren is the offensive genius he thinks he is, then he should have a good game plan coming off a bye week. Cleveland has been one of the NFL's surprise team. All of their young offensive talent has blossomed simultaneously. Their defense is giving up an average of 29 points per game, and the offense is putting up 28 points per game. Translation: they're usually a fun team to watch. Seattle is due for an all-around strong effort, and this could be their week.
Who will win: Seattle (5)
New England Patriots (8-0, 4-0 on the road) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: New England beat Washington, 52-7; Indianapolis beat Carolina, 31-7.
The Patriots have been on fire for a longer duration than any team in recent NFL history. QB Tom Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss and the offense are on all pace to break records. This is the game the Patriots have been planning for since last January, when they lost the AFC title game in Indianapolis. The Colts are flying under the radar, which isn't easy when you're the undefeated, reigning Super Bowl Champions. In any other season, they would widely be considered the best team in football. This is the first time the Colts are home underdogs since Tony Dungy took over as coach in 2002. The Colts defense has improved, but I think they'll have their hands full with the Patriots arsenal. If New England protects the ball and holds Indy under 30 points, they should escape with the win. Plus, Colts receiver Marvin Harrison likely won't play. On the other hand, my reliable source - we'll call him "BM" - says it's just a case of gamesmanship, and Indy is trying to "psyche out" the Patriots. We shall see.
Who will win: New England (14)
Houston Texans (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-5, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Houston lost to San Diego, 35-10; Oakland lost to Tennessee, 13-9.
I'm surprised people aren't more excited for this game than the Pats/Colts tilt! All kidding aside, re-located New England and Indianapolis fans are hoping there is a small turnout for this one, so the game will be blacked out. That way, the Patriots/Colts game will be nationwide. With the way these two teams have played, can you blame them? Anyway, the Raiders are due for a win. Just remember: I didn't say it would be pretty.
Who will win: Oakland (3)
Sunday Night Game
Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 3-0 on the road) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4, 1-2 at home)
Last Week: Dallas had the bye week; Philadelphia beat Minnesota, 23-16.
Dallas is probably the best the NFC has to offer. The Cowboys have the conference's top rated offense and defense, and should be well-rested after a week off. Still, they should not take the Eagles lightly. The Eagles would like nothing better than to upset Dallas, and vault themselves back into the NFC playoff picture. You have to wonder if coach Any Reid's off-field problems effected the preparation of this team. Then again, Philly could rally around their leader, and put together a strong performance. I just think Dallas will get enough big plays on offense to pull out the victory.
Who will win: Dallas (6)
Monday Night Game
Baltimore Ravens (4-3, 1-3 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Baltimore had the bye week; Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati, 24-13.
Baltimore is mediocre at best, and their defense finally seems fed up with the offense's anemic performances. Still, there's the old saying, "if you live in a glass house, don't throw stones". That applies here because Baltimore's defense is not performing up to it's own standards. The fact that shutdown corner back Chris McAllister is unlikely to play doesn't help matters. At least QB Steve McNair is set to return this week, but he's a shell of his former self. I'd look for Pittsburgh to pound the ball early, and hit a long pass or two. Plus, the Steelers have the stingiest defense in football, and the game is at their place.
Who will win: Pittsburgh (7)
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