Week 12 in the NFL (Thanksgiving Day Games)

Due to a S.N.A.F.U last week, I accidentally deleted my Week 11 blog post right before posting it. Oops. As fate would have it, I had a really solid performance, winning 12 of the 16 games, and getting 117 out of a possible 136 points. Think I'm lying? Lucky for you, I'll just copy and paste the results from my Yahoo! pick 'em league:

• JACKSONVILLE San Diego 8 Correct Jac 24, SD 17
• Cleveland BALTIMORE 7 Correct Cle 33, Bal 30
New York (NYG) • DETROIT 3 Incorrect NYG 16, Det 10
HOUSTON • New Orleans 4 Incorrect Hou 23, NO 10
• GREEN BAY Carolina 14 Correct GB 31, Car 17
• INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 15 Correct Ind 13, KC 10
• MINNESOTA Oakland 6 Correct Min 29, Oak 22
• PHILADELPHIA Miami 13 Correct Phi 17, Mia 7
• Tampa Bay ATLANTA 9 Correct TB 31, Atl 7
• CINCINNATI Arizona 2 Incorrect Ari 35, Cin 27
• Pittsburgh NEW YORK (NYJ) 10 Incorrect NYJ 19, Pit 16
• DALLAS Washington 12 Correct Dal 28, Was 23
• St. Louis SAN FRANCISCO 1 Correct StL 13, SF 9
• SEATTLE Chicago 11 Correct Sea 30, Chi 23
• New England BUFFALO 16 Correct NE 56, Buf 10
• DENVER Tennessee 5 Correct Den 34, Ten 20

Not too bad, if I do say so myself. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-11. The breakdown is as follows:

Weeks 1 - 11 : 884 points out of a possible 1,251 (70.7%)
Weeks 3 - 11 : 683 points out of a possible 979 (69.8%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 11: 98 wins, 61 losses (61.6%)
Weeks 3 - 11: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)


Anyhow, here are my Thanksgiving Day picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 16 means I'm as sure as I can be. The remaining 13 games will be broken down in a few days. Happy Thanksgiving!


Green Bay Packers (9-1, 4-0 on the road) at Detroit Lions (6-4, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: Green Bay beat Carolina, 31-17; Detroit lost to New York Giants, 16-10.

For the first half of the season, I would often walk away after watching a Packers game asking myself "How the F$%* did they pull that one out?". The Packers were always 1 or 2 plays away from losing. That's most of the games in the NFL, and the Packers have won almost all of them. Lately, however, Green Bay is blowing lesser opponents out. Detroit's major flaw - the inability to protect quarterback Jon Kitna - has been evident the past two Sundays. Kitna has been sacked 7 times, but has been pressured on dozens of drop backs. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz likes to attack defenses with a vertical passing game, and that requires the offensive line to hold their blocks a few seconds longer. Green Bay can pressure the passer, as evidenced by their 28 sacks this season. Detroit has lost 3 in a row on Thanksgiving: I'd look for this to be number 4.

Who will win: Green Bay (6)

New York Jets (2-8, 0-4 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1, 4-1 at home)
Last Week: New York beat Pittsburgh, 19-16; Dallas beat Washington, 28-23.

New York had the upset of the Week last Sunday, as they stunned everyone by beating the Steelers in overtime. I'm reminded of what Hall of Fame baseball player Jim 'Catfish' Hunter once said: "The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." That quote applies to the Jets here. There is no way they beat two top-5 teams in consecutive weeks. The NFC hasn't had truly elite teams in recent seasons. That's obviously changed this year, as Dallas and Green Bay are clearly title contenders. The Cowboys have 15 interceptions, good for second most in the league. They could force young Jets QB Kellen Clemens into some bad decisions. As long as Dallas avoids disastrous turnovers themselves, this game should be over by halftime.

Who will win: Dallas (14)

Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 4-1 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 2-3 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis beat Kansas City, 13-10; Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay, 31-7.

The Colts gutted out a win last week. The seemingly impossible happened right before the eyes of Indianapolis fans: Peyton Manning and the offense was anemic, kicker Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, and the Colts nearly lost to a team that had a 4-5 record entering the game. Did I mention the Colts were playing at home? This week should be easier, as the Falcons are one of the worst teams in football. If the turkey doesn't put you to sleep, this game will.

Who will win: Indianapolis (13)