Week 10 in the NFL

Last week was so-so for me, as I went 9-5, accumulating 72 out of a possible 105 points. I wish I had proof of my picks for Weeks 1 and 2, but I do not. At least I can prove my picks from Weeks 3-9. The breakdown is as follows:

Weeks 1 - 9 : 717 points out of a possible 1,010 (71%)
Weeks 3 - 9 : 516 points out of a possible 738 (69.9%)

Wins and losses are as follows:

Weeks 1 - 9: 80 wins, 49 losses (62%)
Weeks 3 - 9: 62 wins, 37 losses (62.6%)

Anyhow, here are my Week 10 picks. As always, 'confidence points' are in parentheses. 1 point means I'm not so sure; 14 means I'm as sure as I can be.

1PM Games

Cleveland Browns (5-3, 1-2 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-0 at home)
Last Week: Cleveland beat Seattle, 33-30; Pittsburgh beat Baltimore, 38 - 7.

They were supposed to be re-building this year, but no one told the Cleveland Browns. Here we are in Week 10, and the team is very much in the AFC playoff picture. With quarterback Derek Anderson, wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II all emerging at once, fans are excited in the Buckeye State. This week, however, the Browns could be running into a buzz saw. The Steelers have to be considered the third best team in football. Pittsburgh is giving up the fewest passing yards per game, while the Browns are allowing the most. I'd look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to have big days, as the Steelers win a tight game.

Who will win: Pittsburgh (12)

Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 1-3 on the road) at Green Bay Packers (7-1, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Minnesota beat San Diego, 35-17; Green Bay beat Kansas City, 33-22.

Minnesota's rookie running back Adrian Peterson is setting the league on fire. He only showed mere flashes of his brilliance back at the University of Oklahoma, but he is carrying the Vikings offense right now. Unfortunately, Green Bay doesn't make it easy for opposing ball-carriers, as they yield only 93.8 rushing yards per contest. Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson - the two potential starting QB's for the Vikes - will need to make big plays in the passing game to take the load off Peterson. Despite their strong showing last week, Minnesota still allows the 2nd most passing yards per game. Brett Favre and his receivers could have a field day.

Who will win: Green Bay (11)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Washington Redskins (5-3, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Philadelphia lost to Dallas, 38-17; Washington beat New York Jets, 23-20.

Ex-Toronto Blue Jay Shea Hillenbrand once wrote the following on the clubhouse chalkboard: "This is a sinking ship". Some on the Eagles must be tempted right now to echo that statement. The Eagles have looked like shadows of their former selves, from QB Donovan McNabb to the underachieving defense, to coach Andy Reid. The Redskins could deliver a knockout punch to their fierce division rival this weekend. With the way Washington rebounded last week against the Jets, they may have enough swagger to do just that.

Who will win: Washington (10)


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3, 3-1 on the road) at Tennessee Titans (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Jacksonville lost to New Orleans, 41-24; Tennessee beat Carolina, 20-7.

Last week, Jacksonville looked really bad for the first time all season. They still have a great running game, but have looked much more vulnerable stopping the run then in years past. The Titans are winning by pounding the ball, and playing smothering defense. Highly-touted QB Vince Young hasn't even played well yet, throwing 8 interceptions to just 3 touchdowns. Still, he's a tremendous leader. Tennessee ran all over Jacksonville in the season opener, and the same could happen this weekend. Plus, it's a home game for the Titans.

Who will win: Tennessee (7)

Atlanta Falcons (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (4-4, 0-3 at home)
Last Week: Atlanta beat San Francisco, 20-16; Carolina lost to Tennessee, 20-7.

Atlanta QB Joey Harrington was the 3rd overall pick in the 2002 Draft. Carlonia's David Carr was the 1st overall pick that year. Harrington is with his third different team, Carr his second. Safe to say these two guys aren't going to be inducted in Canton anytime soon. It's just too bad Carr is out with an injury, otherwise this would be a painful reminder for Lions and Texans fans of front office blunders. The Falcons are playing out the string and preparing for 2008, while the Panthers could still win the NFC South. Carolina will need to clean up it's act quickly, and it must start this week.

Who will win: Carolina (6)

Denver Broncos (3-5, 1-2 on the road) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: Denver lost to Detroit, 44-7; Kansas City lost to Green Bay, 33-22.

Denver's season is spiraling out of control. The defense - traditionally one of the best in football - has been putrid this season, allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL, while giving up 28 points per contest. Kansas City isn't head and shoulders above Denver, and will be without workhorse running back Larry Johnson. Still, KC running back Priest Holmes will be playing like it's 2003. You heard it here first ... or maybe you heard it somewhere else. Either way, the Chiefs should take this one.

Last Week: Kansas City (9)

Buffalo Bills (4-4, 1-2 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-8, 0-4 at home)
Last Week: Buffalo beat Cincinnati, 33-21; Miami had the bye week.

While there's a humongous gap between the two teams, the Bills are the undisputed second best team in the AFC East after the Patriots. If not for Adrian Peterson, Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch would be receiving a ton of accolades for his performance. He has carried the load offensively, and wide receiver Lee Evans decided to produce all of a sudden. The football Gods do not look favorably upon jealousy. When retired Dolphins coach Don Shula said that the 2007 Patriots should have an asterisk next to any accomplishment, he made people hate the 1972 Miami team even more - if such a thing is possible. I'm thinking the average fan wouldn't mind seeing the 2007 squad go winless.

Who will win: Buffalo (8)

St Louis Rams (0-8, 0-4 on the road) at New Orleans Saints (4-4, 2-2 at home)
Last Week: St Louis had the bye week; New Orleans beat Jacksonville, 41-24.

If not for the Dolphins, the Rams would be the worst team in the NFL. It seems like just yesterday that they had the most powerful offense in football. Now, they can only muster 12.4 points per game, the lowest total in the NFL. I don't think this is the week they get in the win column, as the Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league. Left for dead after an 0-4 start, New Orleans has had a resurgence, and is thinking about the division title again. I'd look for QB Drew Brees to have a big day.

Who will win: New Orleans (14)

4PM Games

Cincinnati Bengals (2-6, 0-4 on the road) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4, 3-0 at home)
Last Week: Cincinnati lost to Buffalo, 33-21; Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh, 38-7.

The Bengals may have bottomed out last week when they blew a lead in the 4th quarter vs the Bills. The Bengals can't stop anyone on defense, and their offense is not nearly good enough to carry the team. Speaking of hitting rock bottom, the Ravens may have done just that last week on Monday Night Football, when they were creamed by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is looking to save face, while Baltimore is looking to crawl it's way back into the playoff picture. While I think they're overrated, I have to go with Baltimore because there is still a solid core of veteran leaderships, and they're playing at home.

Who will win: Baltimore (5)

Chicago Bears (3-5, 2-2 on the road) at Oakland Raiders (2-6, 1-3 at home)
Last Week: Chicago had the bye week; Oakland lost to Houston, 24-17.

Chicago is the latest victim of a Super Bowl hangover. The team just hasn't looked right all season. Brian Griese is not the permanent answer at quarterback, and hasn't been any better than Rex Grossman was. The duo has combined for 16 interceptions this year, the most out of any NFL team. Granted, the NFC is wide open, but the Bears can really only afford to lose a maximum of 2 games the rest of the year if they want to make the postseason. On the bright side, the defense has recorded 25 sacks, good for second most in the NFL. If they can pressure Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper, the secondary could make a few big plays.

Who will win: Chicago (4)

Dallas Cowboys (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Dallas beat Philadelphia, 38-17; New York had the bye week.

Dallas needs to win this game to keep pace with Green Bay in the race for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense and defense in the NFC. This week won't be easy, however, as the Giants are on a six-game winning streak. Cowboys QB Tony Romo can get happy feet in the pocket when he's pressured, and the Giants have 30 sacks, the most in football. The home field advantage could be the difference in this game.

Who will win: New York (1)

Detroit Lions (6-2, 2-2 on the road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5, 2-1 at home)
Last Week: Detroit beat Denver, 44-7; Arizona lost to Tampa Bay, 17-10.

Detroit is having their best season in over a decade. The defense - thought to be the Achilles heel of the team - is playing very well over the past month. However, opposing offenses have been able to move the ball through the air on the Lions. If the offensive line can give Cards QB Kurt Warner ample time, he could hit star receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Detroit has to slip up a few more times this season - why not this week?

Who will win: Arizona (2)

Sunday Night Game

Indianapolis Colts (7-1, 4-0 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: Indianapolis lost to New England, 24-20; San Diego lost to Minnesota, 35-17.

The Colts had the Patriots on the ropes last week, but couldn't deliver the knockout punch. This week, Peyton Manning and the Colts offense faces another team that has given them problems over the years. The Chargers defense made headlines last week for all the wrong reasons, as they allowed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson to rack up 296 rushing yards, an NFL record. You can't expect the Chargers to play that poorly two weeks in a row, but Colts running back Joseph Addai is a brilliant runner in his own right. Home field or not, I just can't see the Colts losing two in a row.

Who will win: Indianapolis (3)

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (2-6, 1-3 on the road) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4, 3-1 at home)
Last Week: San Francisco lost to Atlanta, 20-16; Seattle lost to Cleveland, 33-30.

The 49ers are destined for a top 5 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, which is music to the ears of New England Patriots fans. Instead of getting a franchise player, San Fran will watch the rich get richer, as the Patriots own that selection. In the meantime, the 49ers can drop the pick of a few slots by winning some games. I just wouldn't expect it to be this week. Seattle is hanging on for dear life in the NFC West, the worst division in football. The Seahawks are very tough to beat at home, especially for the 49ers, and especially on Monday Night Football.

Who will win: Seattle (13)