Last week, I checked in with a respectable 11-5 record, and scored 99 out of a possible 136 points (72.8%). I'm not liking many of these games, but we'll see how the action unfolds.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 PM
When is life tough for a head coach? When your starting quarterback goes down with an injury, and will be out for 2-4 weeks. When is life tougher? When that same QB sends the coach on a wild goose chase, and threats of suicide are reported. But Jeff Fisher doesn't have time to dwell on the difficulties of Vince Young, as the Titans look to improve to 2-0 with a win over the Bengals. I think the Titans are the better team, and I actually like Kerry Collins as a fill-in starter from time to time. Going against all of that, I'm picking the Bengals because ... well, I don't even know why. I just think it's their week, OK?
Prediction: Cincinnati (6)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 1 PM
Maybe there is life after Favre! Aaron Rodgers looked pretty poised last week, as he should have: he had plenty of time to study the last three seasons, as he got splinters in his ass watching ol' #4 sling it into quadruple coverage. The Packers contained a one-dimensional offense last week, as the power run-oriented Vikings were held below 20 points. This week, the aerial attack of the Lions will get grounded.
Prediction: Green Bay (11)
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins, 1 PM
The Saints nearly lost to Brian Griese last week before managing to hang on for the win. New Orleans won't remind anyone of the 1985 Bears on defense, but they could put up a ton of points on offense, even with the injury to Marques Colston. I know people accused Joe Gibbs of being out of touch with the flow of the game when he returned after a long break in 2004. Still, last week against the Giants, 'skins coach Jim Zorn made Joe Gibbs look like a mastermind. Outside of a drive to close the first half, Washington looked impotent when they had the ball. I think they'll get better, but the Redskins defense will allow more points than their developing offense can muster.
Prediction: New Orleans (5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM
Well, so much for the Raiders leaving the past few years behind them. The franchise that is now 19-62 since Super Bowl XXXVII ended (.235 winning %) doesn't look like it has changed that much. They were trounced by the Broncos on Monday Night Football at HOME. "Commitment to Excellence"? Try "Commitment to Embarrassment". There's no need to get into the awkward Al Davis/Lane Kiffin/Rob Ryan triangle. Kansas City is definitely rebuilding, but at least they're not a franchise in ruins like Oakland. I think Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will break out this week in a big win for KC.
Prediction: Kansas City (13)
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 1 PM
The Bears finally re-discovered what has worked so well for them: send the QB out there and tell him not to f**k up, pound the ball, and rely on the defense to hold down the other team. Of course, that works a lot better when the defense is playing well, like it did in Indianapolis. Running back Matt Forte looks like an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and Kyle Orton avoided any disasters. Sprinkle in a few big plays in the return (and maybe passing) game from Devin Hester this season, and the Bears might just be a sleeper for a playoff spot. The Panthers pulled off their own shocker last week in San Diego against the Chargers. I think the Panthers are in the same boat as Chicago. This week, I think the absence of Steve Smith will catch up to the Panthers, and they won't have the deep passing game to expose Chicago.
Prediction: Chicago (10)
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams, 1 PM
OK, I don't think the Giants are going to make the playoffs. I like their offense, but I don't think their defense is as good as they were last year, and they won't catch fire again. Still, the Rams are absolutely dreadful. Donovan McNabb and his pedestrian receiving corps abused St. Louis defenders all game long last week. Rams QB Marc Bulger was constantly harassed, and the offense sputtered. There's no reason to think the Giants can't render the same punishment on the Rams.
Prediction: New York (14)
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 PM
The Bills enjoyed their first opening day win since 2005 with a thorough beating of Seattle. Buffalo will face some much stiffer competition this week in Jacksonville. The Jaguars can't afford to fall to 0-2 in a loaded AFC South, and I think they will pound the football early and often against an undersized Buffalo defensive line. On the flip side, Jacksonville might be able to shut down Buffalo by stopping Marshawn Lynch on first and second down. I like the Jaguars a lot in this game.
Prediction: Jacksonville (12)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, 1 PM
This has to be the most intriguing match-up of 0-1 teams for this week. Both teams have serious aspirations about the playoffs, and both are in improved divisions. The Colts not only lost to the Bears last week - they got handled. Some of that may have been due to Peyton Manning being rusty. The Vikings need more from QB Tavaris Jackson and the passing game before anyone punches them in for the postseason. In a crucial early season game, I'll take the team who's won more big games in recent years.
Prediction: Indianapolis (9)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4 PM
After taking a hold slap from reality in 2007 and finishing 5-11, the 49ers entered this season with lowered expectations. The 49ers have been looking for the right quarterback to lead the team since Jeff Garcia left after the 2003 season. Former #1 overall pick Alex Smith has been a complete bust, and is now out for the season. Things won't begin to look up in the bay area until San Francisco has someone competent under center. The Seahawks have their quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, but do they have anyone who will get open so he can throw the ball? Nate Buerlson is out for the season, Bobby Engram is out for this game, and Deion Branch is listed as doubtful. At least Seattle coach Mike Holmgren should only need to get a touchdown or two out of his offense, as the 49ers are just that bad.
Prediction: Seattle (16)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4 PM
Falcons players, coaches and fans could not have dreamed of a better week 1. Top draft pick Matt Ryan threw for a touchdown on his very first pass, Michael Turner set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single game, and Atlanta crushed Detroit. On top of that, a blackout was avoided. All of that has to make you ask: is this just the beginning? Or, was that the highpoint of the season? Tampa Bay may be in the middle of the first quarterback controversy of 2008. Jeff Garcia isn't entirely healthy, but even coach John Gruden hinted that the reason he's out may not entirely be health related. I just have a feeling that Atlanta is in for a letdown game after such an uplifting week 1 victory. Plus, Tampa Bay gets to enjoy homefield advantage.
Prediction: Tampa Bay (7)
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos, 4: 15 PM
The Chargers had one of the worst weeks of any team in the league. Not only did they lose in the last seconds on Sunday, but they lost their best defensive player for the year when Shawn Merriman went down with an injury. The Broncos were the complete opposites, as they pounded the Raiders on Monday Night. I actually think Denver is a playoff team this year. Unfortunately, San Diego has had their number as of late, and have swept the season series the last two years. The Chargers are still the kings of the AFC West until proven otherwise, and have more talent then Denver. Don't expect San Diego to leave this game in the balance late in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: San Diego (1)
New England Patriots at New York Jets, 4:15 PM
Has there ever been a win that went less noticed than the Patriots' one over the Chiefs last week? Of course, everyone gets a pass, especially when the defending league MVP is knocked out for the season halfway through the first quarter. Football fans have asked the question for years: is Bill Belichick a genius for setting up a great "system" where most any player can succeed? Or, is Tom Brady the main reason there are 3 Vince Lombardi trophies in Foxboro? This week will mark the beginning of a season which will answer that question. The Jets are looking to dethrone the Patriots as the AFC East leader. A lot of people are already handing a playoff spot to the Jets and writing the Patriots off. The Patriots hate the Jets for a plethora of reasons. New York may very well finish ahead of New England in the standings, but I don't think the Patriots are about to let the Jets take one more step at their expense.
Prediction: New England (4)
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 PM
Miami was actually competitive last week against the Jets before running out of time. Then again, the Dolphins looked competitive early on in 2007 ... and they finished 1-15. The Dolphins are, at best, a 4-12 or 5-11 team. They have a few years to wait before they can even expect to compete for a playoff spot. The Cardinals have experienced plenty of lean years, and are now looking to take that next step. The Seahawks are a year older and struggling with injuries, so the NFC West looks to be wide open. This may be Arizona's year to break through. I could see this being a blowout, with Cards QB Kurt Warner and his many weapons dissecting Miami's defense.
Prediction: Arizona (15)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 PM
The Steelers have owned the "new" Browns since their inaugural 1999 season, and have won the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Pittsburgh looks like the strongest team in the AFC, especially with Tom Brady's injury, and the shaky week 1 performances of the Colts and Chargers. The Browns were steamrolled by the Cowboys last week in a game where they were looking to make a statement. Still, if the Browns' offensive line can give QB Derrick Anderson enough time, he should be able to make enough big plays in the passing game to win. The real question is whether or not the Browns can contain Pittsburgh when they have the ball. I look for this game to be a shootout.
Prediction: Cleveland (2)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 PM on Monday Night
The Eagles were on the good end of the most lopsided game of week 1. But they were playing the Rams, so it's tough to really gauge how good they will be. With a healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia should be back in the playoffs. Dallas looks like they're going to maintain their title as "Best team of weeks 1-15", as they got off to a great start with a convincing win over Cleveland. Dallas just has too many weapons on offense for the Eagles to keep up with. Running back Marion Barber is banged up, but the Cowboys have 1st round rookie Felix Jones waiting in the wings.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, POSTPONED until November 9
For what it's worth, I had Houston for 3.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Monday Night Football Games
Green Bay vs • Minnesota Q4 2:00, Min 19 - GB 24 (1 confident point)
• Denver vs Oakland Mon, Sep 8 at 10:15 pm (10 points)
• Denver vs Oakland Mon, Sep 8 at 10:15 pm (10 points)
Friday, September 5, 2008
Week 1 Picks and breakdowns
Sorry for the lengthy post, but I wanted to sneak in some previews with the picks!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1 PM
2007 Records: Cincinnati was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Baltimore was 5-11 (4-4 at home)
Since head coach Marvin Lewis arrived for the 2003 season, the Bengals have been a team with an explosive offense, but a shoddy defense. In 2008, they may have a shoddy offense, and an implosive defense. The Bengals handed the starting running back job to 5th year veteran Chris Perry when they cut Rudi Johnson. Perry was a college standout at Michigan, but has done little to prove himself at the next level, and he fractured his leg in the 2006 season. The Bengals also cut team captain and offensive tackle Willie Anderson. On defense, there are no impact players, although rookie Keith Rivers could spotlight a thin linebacker corps.
Everything looked great for Baltimore in 2007: they were 4-2, an in playoff contention. Then they fell to 4-4 ... then 4-6 .... before anyone knew what happened, Baltimore closed the season at 5-11, and head coach Brian Billick was gone. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden retired after the year. After a 2006 season that they dominated defensively, the Ravens slipped big-time, all the way down to allowing 384 points, the 10th most in the NFL. John Harbaugh is thew new man at the helm, and the Ravens are looking to get back to their 2006 form.
I think both teams are rebuilding. Both are about equal in terms of talent. Cincinnati does have the more proven quarterback and receivers, but I like Baltimore's running game and defense better. Plus, they are playing at home, sooo..
Prediction: Baltimore (4)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM
2007 Records: Houston was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); Pittsburgh was 10-6 (7-1 at home)
The task for the 2008 Texans is simple: beat the good NFL teams. In 2007, the Texans were a woeful 2-6 against playoff teams. Only 2 of their 8 wins were against playoff teams too. The AFC South produced three playoff teams, and it doesn't look like the division got any softer around the Texans. With a developing defense centered around former #1 pick Mario Williams, the Texans are going to look to knock the Colts off their pedestal. My sleeper: rookie running back Steve Slaton. The Texans' backfield was not that great last year, so he should see a lot of opportunities.
In the AFC last year, the Steelers looked like a strong contender for the first 3/4 of the season. But starting with a blowout at New England, the Steelers went into a tailspin, finishing 1-3 over the final 4 weeks, and suffering a disappointing loss against Jacksonville in the wild card round. There really isn't any reason to believe the Steelers won't return as a top-4 AFC team. The Bengals and Ravens are re-building, and talks of the Browns taking the AFC North are probably premature. While I think the Texans will get even better this season, I just think they will be too one-dimensional on offense this early in the season. I can easily see Pittsburgh focusing on the pass, and making it a long day for Texans QB Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (11)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
2007 Records: Detroit was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Atlanta was 4-12 (3-5 at home).
Detroit was the NFC's Cinderella team last season, as they sat at 6-2 at the halfway point ... then they went 1-7. It's not even like their losses were all that close. In those 7 contests, the Lions were defeated by an average of nearly 17 points. It's quite possible that the rest of the NFL caught on to the Lions' pass-happy offense. I think the Lions will try to maintain some semblance of balance in 2008, especially with offensive "whiz" Mike Martz off to San Francisco.
Falcon fans saw more crap in 2007 than a toilet at taco bell. It Started with the embarrassing Michael Vick saga, continued with the Bobby Petrino premature departure and wrapped up with a 4-12 campaign. I guess it's not like anyone was paying attention in Atlanta anyway. In fact, this game was in serious jeopardy of being blacked out locally up until just a few days ago. At least the Falcons are trying to revamp their offense. Top pick Matt Ryan makes his debut at QB, and Michael "The Burner" Turner will finally get the chance to be the main runner on an NFL team. In this match-up, I think Detroit will narrowly escape with a victory. I could see both offenses moving fairly easy, but I just think Ryan will make one too many mistakes.
Prediction: Detroit (5)
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
2007 Records: Seattle was 10-6 (3-5 on the road); Buffalo was 7-9 (4-4 at home).
This is Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's swan song. While I was never particularly awed by him, his resume is fairly impressive, and his teams are always in contention. The Seahawks have generally had a pretty balanced West Coast offense attack under Holmgren, with Matt Hasselbeck slinging passes and Shaun Alexander churning out 1,000+ yard seasons. But Alexander was cut, and was nowhere near his MVP form the past two seasons. Now, the 'Hawks will really be leaning on Hasselbeck to put up points, as they have a revamped backfield, with newly acquired Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The defense is OK, but they still have tire marks on the front of their jerseys after getting run over by the Packers in the playoffs last January.
The Bills went on a roller coaster ride for the 2007 season. They started out 1-4, got above .500 a few times, and ended at 7-9. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and the Jets and Dolphins have reloaded, so life won't get easier for Buffalo. At least QB Trent Edwards looks like a competent signal caller, and back Marshawn Lynch is a tough young running back. If things work out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see Buffalo finishing with a winning record. In this game, I think the difference will be on special teams, where the Bills have standout return men in Roscoe Parrish and Terrence McGee.
Prediction: Buffalo (5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
2007 Records: Jacksonville was 11-5 (5-3 on the road); Tennessee was 10-6 (5-3 at home)
Jacksonville had a successful 2007 campaign, but it ended in disappointment with a 31-20 loss to New England in the playoffs. The thing that stood out about that game was the ease in which Tom Brady picked apart the Jags defense, as he had only 2 incompletions in 28 pass attempts. The Jaguars picked up a pair of pass rushers in the draft, as they felt that was their major weakness in 2007. The group of wide receivers could still be better, especially when Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter are starting. At least the Jaguars know what their strengths are: a quarterback who avoids mistakes (David Garrard), a power running game and a stout defense.
Tennessee has a deep backfield, headed by Lendale White, but that's about it on offense. QB Vince Young looked like regressed in his second year, probably because he had no difference makers at wide receiver. Free agent acquisition Alge Crumpler will be looked at as the go-to guy at tight end. The defense remains strong, and has added new/old face Jevon Kearse. I don't see the formula for Tennessee changing: limited offense, strong defense and win the turnover game. I think this is the year Jacksonville puts some distance between themselves and Tennessee. They seem more talented on both sides of the ball, even though both teams are equally physical.
Prediction: Jacksonville (2)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM
2007 Records: New York was 4-12 (1-7 on the road); Miami was 1-15 (1-7 at home)
It's safe to say the Jets were not pleased with how 2007 went. They went out in the offseason and did something about it, too. The offensive line is revamped, with Damien Woody and Alan Faneca joining the fold. The defense has added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and rookie Vernon Gholston. Of course, the biggest splash was getting Brett Favre when he came out of retirement, and releasing noodle-armed QB Chad Pennington (more on him in a moment). The Jets don't want to just challenge for a playoff spot, they want to know the Patriots off their AFC East throne.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom in 2007. Years of atrocious draft classes, bad front office moves and declining talent led to an unsightly 1-15 season. Wholesale changes ensued, including the firing of Cam Cameron and the arrival of Bill Parcells. Parcells is good, but even he is going to need a few years to get the Dolphins back to something resembling respectability. Pennington is now in Miami, and gets an immediate chance at some payback against his former team. His teammates are going to need to be as fired up if the Dolphins even want a chance. The Jets have some flaws, like a lack of depth at receiver and a questionable running game, but Miami is unlikely to have enough firewpower to beat them.
Prediction: New York (13)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 PM
2007 Results: Kansas City was 4-12 (2-6 on the road); New England was 16-0 (8-0 at home)
No need to recap the Patriots 2007 season. They entered with astronomically high expectations, got busted for Spygate, blew teams out of the water, set records, steamrolled to the Super Bowl ... and lost a shocking game to the Giants. They lost Asante Samuel to the Eagles in free agency, but that was the only real impact loss. Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Donte Stallworth were not spectacular players. The really important concern is the health of Tom Brady, the only truly irreplaceable Patriot. The defense added youth in the draft, primarily with inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Looking around the AFC, there's no reason to think the Patriots won't be the early favorites to return to the Big Dance.
While most people don't remember it, the Chiefs actually started 2007 with a respectable 4-3 record ... before they lost 9 straight. The Chiefs have a talented, if shaky big three on offense. Larry Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in week 9, and will look to maneuver behind and through a suspect offensive line. Tight end Tony Gonzalez is another year older, though he is still productive, and had 99 catches last year. Receiver Dwayne Bowe will look to avoid the sophomore slump. The defense was in the middle of the pack last season, but lost their top player - end Jarred Allen - to the Vikings. The Chiefs are rebuilding, and would be lucky to reach .500. I'd expect a blowout at the hands of the Patriots.
Prediction: New England (16)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
2007 Results: Tampa Bay was 9-7 (3-5 on the road); New Orleans was 7-9 (3-5 at home)
Tampa Bay rebounded big-time for their rough 2006 campaign. John Gruden's team still hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII though. A lot of people stepped in and got them to the postseason, including QB Jeff Garcia and running back Earnest Graham. The defense was strong, even if they weren't reminding anyone of the title-winning edition earlier this millennium. I just think too many key players on Tampa Bay have more good years behind them then in front of them, including Garcia, receiver Joey Galloway, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. The Panthers are primed for a bounce back year, as are the Saints.
All the good feelings from the 2006 season were washed away by a depressing 2007 finish for New Orleans. The offense should return to it's high-powered attack, with Drew Brees behind center, and a recovered Deuce McCAllister and a re-dedicated Reggie Bush in the running back stable. Marques Colston is a complete receiver, and Devery Henderson is the deep threat. The real X factor is tight end Jeremy Shockey. He found out that the Giants didn't need him to win a title, and he was no longer needed, period. If he stay healthy, he is one of the best tight ends in football. The defense has talent, but it's just a question of them forming a cohesive unit. I can see New Orleans using this game against a divisional opponent as a launching pad to a winning season. They should have too much firepower for the Bucs defense.
Prediction: New Orleans (6)
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 PM
2007 Results: St. Louis was 3-13 (2-6 at home); Philadelphia was 8-8 (3-5 at home)
St. Louis season was over pretty early in 2007. Injuries and ineffectiveness on both sides of the ball put them in an 0-8 hole, and they never showed signs of life. Steven Jackson and Torry Holt were the only consistent weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal. Also, future Hall of Fame left tackle Orlando Pace missed the final 15 games. There's some talent on the Rams roster, but not enough to win any more than 6 or 7 games.
The Eagles saved face down the stretch in 2007 with three wins in a row. If Donovan McNabb stays healthy for the first time since 2004, there's no reason to think Philadelphia can't return to the playoffs. Brian Westbrook is a dynamic running back, and even though the Eagles will be without Kevin Curtis, this should be a good game for the other receivers to step up, including Reggie Brown and rookie DeSean Jackson. This is a far cry from "The Greatest Show on Turf", and the Eagles should have little trouble dispatching St. Louis.
Prediction: Philadelphia (13)
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Carolina was 7-9 (5-3 on the road); San Diego was 11-5 (7-1 at home)
Carolina has been disappointing the last two seasons after coming within one game of Super Bowl XL. QB Jake Delhomme looks to have a fully healthy season for the first time since 2005. The Panthers will be without superstar receiver Steve Smith though, who just happened to get into a fist fight with a teammate - again. Mushin Muhammad is back, and he's looking to bounce back after some lean years in Chicago. The defense isn't particularly great, but it shouldn't prevent the Panthers from contending for a playoff spot.
The Chargers may just be the most talented team in football. They finally won a few playoff games last year, which was big for a lot of people, coach Norv Turner in particular. The AFC West will offer very little in the way of resistance, as the Chiefs and Raiders are rebuilding, while the Broncos don't look too impressive. The Chargers will start the season with a rout.
Prediction; San Diego (14)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Arizona was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); San Francisco was 5-11 (3-5 at home)
It wasn't easy, but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the right decision in making Kurt Warner his opening day starter at QB over Matt Leinart. Warner played as well as any field general in the NFL over the last half of the season, and Leinart has been spotty - at best. With Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his arsenal, Warner may be just as good in 2008. The defense has some play makers, with Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle. The Cardinals are a sleeper for a playoff position - once again.
San Francisco was supposed to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in 2007. They put everything into the season, including getting an extra draft pick, making trades and big free agent splashes. While they started out OK, they quickly flamed out. The offense was anemic, and the defense wasn't much better. Outside of running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis, there are few pieces to build around. Bay area fans are probably in for another long season.
Prediction: Arizona (9)
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Dallas was 13-3 (7-1 on the road); Cleveland was 10-6 (7-1 at home).
If they're not the most talented team in the NFL, they Cowboys are at least the most talented team in their conference. The number of pro bowlers they sported in 2007 shows that. By the way, who caught Tony Romo's last pass that mattered? Answer: the Giants. Anyway, the Cowboys need to win a playoff game. Their window is only getting smaller as the team gets older and the NFC East gets better.
The Browns have not given their fans much reason to get excited since 1999. Anything less than a trip to the playoffs will be viewed as a monumental disappointment to Cleveland. Every season, there seems to be a team that everyone falls in love with. In 2006, it was the Miami Dolphins, who promptly went 6-10. Last season, it was the 49ers, who had a dismal 5-11 campaign. Whenever a team gets some new pieces, closes the previous season with a few wins and "wins" the offseason, the expectations soar. I don't think this will be the case for Cleveland, but who knows? I do think that Dallas will be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 PM
2007 Results: Chicago was 7-9 (3-5 on the road); Indianapolis was 13-3 (6-2 at home)
The Bears became just the latest victims of the Super Bowl loser hangover. The once-feared defense had no teeth, and the offense was as lame as ever. Chicago missed running back Thomas Jones more than they thought they would, and Rex Grossman lost his starting job. The Bears offensive attack could be just as lame this year, especially with Mushin Mohammad gone. Green Bay and Minnesota should challenge for playoff spots, and Detroit beat Chicago twice last year. It could be another cold, long season in the Windy City.
The Colts open up Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Every Colt fan would like to forget Indianapolis' last game in the RCA Dome, where they were shocked by the Chargers in a divisional playoff game. While there were some concerns over Peyton Manning's health, the Colts should be fine in 2008. There's no reason to think they won't be a top-3 team in their conference. Marvin Harrison needs to improve 2007 was a fluke, and members of the defensive line (other than Dwight Freeney) need to step up. A blowout of the Bears would be a good place to start.
Prediction: Indianapolis (15)
*Monday Night Previews soon!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1 PM
2007 Records: Cincinnati was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Baltimore was 5-11 (4-4 at home)
Since head coach Marvin Lewis arrived for the 2003 season, the Bengals have been a team with an explosive offense, but a shoddy defense. In 2008, they may have a shoddy offense, and an implosive defense. The Bengals handed the starting running back job to 5th year veteran Chris Perry when they cut Rudi Johnson. Perry was a college standout at Michigan, but has done little to prove himself at the next level, and he fractured his leg in the 2006 season. The Bengals also cut team captain and offensive tackle Willie Anderson. On defense, there are no impact players, although rookie Keith Rivers could spotlight a thin linebacker corps.
Everything looked great for Baltimore in 2007: they were 4-2, an in playoff contention. Then they fell to 4-4 ... then 4-6 .... before anyone knew what happened, Baltimore closed the season at 5-11, and head coach Brian Billick was gone. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden retired after the year. After a 2006 season that they dominated defensively, the Ravens slipped big-time, all the way down to allowing 384 points, the 10th most in the NFL. John Harbaugh is thew new man at the helm, and the Ravens are looking to get back to their 2006 form.
I think both teams are rebuilding. Both are about equal in terms of talent. Cincinnati does have the more proven quarterback and receivers, but I like Baltimore's running game and defense better. Plus, they are playing at home, sooo..
Prediction: Baltimore (4)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM
2007 Records: Houston was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); Pittsburgh was 10-6 (7-1 at home)
The task for the 2008 Texans is simple: beat the good NFL teams. In 2007, the Texans were a woeful 2-6 against playoff teams. Only 2 of their 8 wins were against playoff teams too. The AFC South produced three playoff teams, and it doesn't look like the division got any softer around the Texans. With a developing defense centered around former #1 pick Mario Williams, the Texans are going to look to knock the Colts off their pedestal. My sleeper: rookie running back Steve Slaton. The Texans' backfield was not that great last year, so he should see a lot of opportunities.
In the AFC last year, the Steelers looked like a strong contender for the first 3/4 of the season. But starting with a blowout at New England, the Steelers went into a tailspin, finishing 1-3 over the final 4 weeks, and suffering a disappointing loss against Jacksonville in the wild card round. There really isn't any reason to believe the Steelers won't return as a top-4 AFC team. The Bengals and Ravens are re-building, and talks of the Browns taking the AFC North are probably premature. While I think the Texans will get even better this season, I just think they will be too one-dimensional on offense this early in the season. I can easily see Pittsburgh focusing on the pass, and making it a long day for Texans QB Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (11)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
2007 Records: Detroit was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Atlanta was 4-12 (3-5 at home).
Detroit was the NFC's Cinderella team last season, as they sat at 6-2 at the halfway point ... then they went 1-7. It's not even like their losses were all that close. In those 7 contests, the Lions were defeated by an average of nearly 17 points. It's quite possible that the rest of the NFL caught on to the Lions' pass-happy offense. I think the Lions will try to maintain some semblance of balance in 2008, especially with offensive "whiz" Mike Martz off to San Francisco.
Falcon fans saw more crap in 2007 than a toilet at taco bell. It Started with the embarrassing Michael Vick saga, continued with the Bobby Petrino premature departure and wrapped up with a 4-12 campaign. I guess it's not like anyone was paying attention in Atlanta anyway. In fact, this game was in serious jeopardy of being blacked out locally up until just a few days ago. At least the Falcons are trying to revamp their offense. Top pick Matt Ryan makes his debut at QB, and Michael "The Burner" Turner will finally get the chance to be the main runner on an NFL team. In this match-up, I think Detroit will narrowly escape with a victory. I could see both offenses moving fairly easy, but I just think Ryan will make one too many mistakes.
Prediction: Detroit (5)
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
2007 Records: Seattle was 10-6 (3-5 on the road); Buffalo was 7-9 (4-4 at home).
This is Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's swan song. While I was never particularly awed by him, his resume is fairly impressive, and his teams are always in contention. The Seahawks have generally had a pretty balanced West Coast offense attack under Holmgren, with Matt Hasselbeck slinging passes and Shaun Alexander churning out 1,000+ yard seasons. But Alexander was cut, and was nowhere near his MVP form the past two seasons. Now, the 'Hawks will really be leaning on Hasselbeck to put up points, as they have a revamped backfield, with newly acquired Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The defense is OK, but they still have tire marks on the front of their jerseys after getting run over by the Packers in the playoffs last January.
The Bills went on a roller coaster ride for the 2007 season. They started out 1-4, got above .500 a few times, and ended at 7-9. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and the Jets and Dolphins have reloaded, so life won't get easier for Buffalo. At least QB Trent Edwards looks like a competent signal caller, and back Marshawn Lynch is a tough young running back. If things work out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see Buffalo finishing with a winning record. In this game, I think the difference will be on special teams, where the Bills have standout return men in Roscoe Parrish and Terrence McGee.
Prediction: Buffalo (5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
2007 Records: Jacksonville was 11-5 (5-3 on the road); Tennessee was 10-6 (5-3 at home)
Jacksonville had a successful 2007 campaign, but it ended in disappointment with a 31-20 loss to New England in the playoffs. The thing that stood out about that game was the ease in which Tom Brady picked apart the Jags defense, as he had only 2 incompletions in 28 pass attempts. The Jaguars picked up a pair of pass rushers in the draft, as they felt that was their major weakness in 2007. The group of wide receivers could still be better, especially when Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter are starting. At least the Jaguars know what their strengths are: a quarterback who avoids mistakes (David Garrard), a power running game and a stout defense.
Tennessee has a deep backfield, headed by Lendale White, but that's about it on offense. QB Vince Young looked like regressed in his second year, probably because he had no difference makers at wide receiver. Free agent acquisition Alge Crumpler will be looked at as the go-to guy at tight end. The defense remains strong, and has added new/old face Jevon Kearse. I don't see the formula for Tennessee changing: limited offense, strong defense and win the turnover game. I think this is the year Jacksonville puts some distance between themselves and Tennessee. They seem more talented on both sides of the ball, even though both teams are equally physical.
Prediction: Jacksonville (2)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM
2007 Records: New York was 4-12 (1-7 on the road); Miami was 1-15 (1-7 at home)
It's safe to say the Jets were not pleased with how 2007 went. They went out in the offseason and did something about it, too. The offensive line is revamped, with Damien Woody and Alan Faneca joining the fold. The defense has added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and rookie Vernon Gholston. Of course, the biggest splash was getting Brett Favre when he came out of retirement, and releasing noodle-armed QB Chad Pennington (more on him in a moment). The Jets don't want to just challenge for a playoff spot, they want to know the Patriots off their AFC East throne.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom in 2007. Years of atrocious draft classes, bad front office moves and declining talent led to an unsightly 1-15 season. Wholesale changes ensued, including the firing of Cam Cameron and the arrival of Bill Parcells. Parcells is good, but even he is going to need a few years to get the Dolphins back to something resembling respectability. Pennington is now in Miami, and gets an immediate chance at some payback against his former team. His teammates are going to need to be as fired up if the Dolphins even want a chance. The Jets have some flaws, like a lack of depth at receiver and a questionable running game, but Miami is unlikely to have enough firewpower to beat them.
Prediction: New York (13)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 PM
2007 Results: Kansas City was 4-12 (2-6 on the road); New England was 16-0 (8-0 at home)
No need to recap the Patriots 2007 season. They entered with astronomically high expectations, got busted for Spygate, blew teams out of the water, set records, steamrolled to the Super Bowl ... and lost a shocking game to the Giants. They lost Asante Samuel to the Eagles in free agency, but that was the only real impact loss. Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Donte Stallworth were not spectacular players. The really important concern is the health of Tom Brady, the only truly irreplaceable Patriot. The defense added youth in the draft, primarily with inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Looking around the AFC, there's no reason to think the Patriots won't be the early favorites to return to the Big Dance.
While most people don't remember it, the Chiefs actually started 2007 with a respectable 4-3 record ... before they lost 9 straight. The Chiefs have a talented, if shaky big three on offense. Larry Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in week 9, and will look to maneuver behind and through a suspect offensive line. Tight end Tony Gonzalez is another year older, though he is still productive, and had 99 catches last year. Receiver Dwayne Bowe will look to avoid the sophomore slump. The defense was in the middle of the pack last season, but lost their top player - end Jarred Allen - to the Vikings. The Chiefs are rebuilding, and would be lucky to reach .500. I'd expect a blowout at the hands of the Patriots.
Prediction: New England (16)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
2007 Results: Tampa Bay was 9-7 (3-5 on the road); New Orleans was 7-9 (3-5 at home)
Tampa Bay rebounded big-time for their rough 2006 campaign. John Gruden's team still hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII though. A lot of people stepped in and got them to the postseason, including QB Jeff Garcia and running back Earnest Graham. The defense was strong, even if they weren't reminding anyone of the title-winning edition earlier this millennium. I just think too many key players on Tampa Bay have more good years behind them then in front of them, including Garcia, receiver Joey Galloway, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. The Panthers are primed for a bounce back year, as are the Saints.
All the good feelings from the 2006 season were washed away by a depressing 2007 finish for New Orleans. The offense should return to it's high-powered attack, with Drew Brees behind center, and a recovered Deuce McCAllister and a re-dedicated Reggie Bush in the running back stable. Marques Colston is a complete receiver, and Devery Henderson is the deep threat. The real X factor is tight end Jeremy Shockey. He found out that the Giants didn't need him to win a title, and he was no longer needed, period. If he stay healthy, he is one of the best tight ends in football. The defense has talent, but it's just a question of them forming a cohesive unit. I can see New Orleans using this game against a divisional opponent as a launching pad to a winning season. They should have too much firepower for the Bucs defense.
Prediction: New Orleans (6)
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 PM
2007 Results: St. Louis was 3-13 (2-6 at home); Philadelphia was 8-8 (3-5 at home)
St. Louis season was over pretty early in 2007. Injuries and ineffectiveness on both sides of the ball put them in an 0-8 hole, and they never showed signs of life. Steven Jackson and Torry Holt were the only consistent weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal. Also, future Hall of Fame left tackle Orlando Pace missed the final 15 games. There's some talent on the Rams roster, but not enough to win any more than 6 or 7 games.
The Eagles saved face down the stretch in 2007 with three wins in a row. If Donovan McNabb stays healthy for the first time since 2004, there's no reason to think Philadelphia can't return to the playoffs. Brian Westbrook is a dynamic running back, and even though the Eagles will be without Kevin Curtis, this should be a good game for the other receivers to step up, including Reggie Brown and rookie DeSean Jackson. This is a far cry from "The Greatest Show on Turf", and the Eagles should have little trouble dispatching St. Louis.
Prediction: Philadelphia (13)
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Carolina was 7-9 (5-3 on the road); San Diego was 11-5 (7-1 at home)
Carolina has been disappointing the last two seasons after coming within one game of Super Bowl XL. QB Jake Delhomme looks to have a fully healthy season for the first time since 2005. The Panthers will be without superstar receiver Steve Smith though, who just happened to get into a fist fight with a teammate - again. Mushin Muhammad is back, and he's looking to bounce back after some lean years in Chicago. The defense isn't particularly great, but it shouldn't prevent the Panthers from contending for a playoff spot.
The Chargers may just be the most talented team in football. They finally won a few playoff games last year, which was big for a lot of people, coach Norv Turner in particular. The AFC West will offer very little in the way of resistance, as the Chiefs and Raiders are rebuilding, while the Broncos don't look too impressive. The Chargers will start the season with a rout.
Prediction; San Diego (14)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Arizona was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); San Francisco was 5-11 (3-5 at home)
It wasn't easy, but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the right decision in making Kurt Warner his opening day starter at QB over Matt Leinart. Warner played as well as any field general in the NFL over the last half of the season, and Leinart has been spotty - at best. With Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his arsenal, Warner may be just as good in 2008. The defense has some play makers, with Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle. The Cardinals are a sleeper for a playoff position - once again.
San Francisco was supposed to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in 2007. They put everything into the season, including getting an extra draft pick, making trades and big free agent splashes. While they started out OK, they quickly flamed out. The offense was anemic, and the defense wasn't much better. Outside of running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis, there are few pieces to build around. Bay area fans are probably in for another long season.
Prediction: Arizona (9)
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Dallas was 13-3 (7-1 on the road); Cleveland was 10-6 (7-1 at home).
If they're not the most talented team in the NFL, they Cowboys are at least the most talented team in their conference. The number of pro bowlers they sported in 2007 shows that. By the way, who caught Tony Romo's last pass that mattered? Answer: the Giants. Anyway, the Cowboys need to win a playoff game. Their window is only getting smaller as the team gets older and the NFC East gets better.
The Browns have not given their fans much reason to get excited since 1999. Anything less than a trip to the playoffs will be viewed as a monumental disappointment to Cleveland. Every season, there seems to be a team that everyone falls in love with. In 2006, it was the Miami Dolphins, who promptly went 6-10. Last season, it was the 49ers, who had a dismal 5-11 campaign. Whenever a team gets some new pieces, closes the previous season with a few wins and "wins" the offseason, the expectations soar. I don't think this will be the case for Cleveland, but who knows? I do think that Dallas will be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 PM
2007 Results: Chicago was 7-9 (3-5 on the road); Indianapolis was 13-3 (6-2 at home)
The Bears became just the latest victims of the Super Bowl loser hangover. The once-feared defense had no teeth, and the offense was as lame as ever. Chicago missed running back Thomas Jones more than they thought they would, and Rex Grossman lost his starting job. The Bears offensive attack could be just as lame this year, especially with Mushin Mohammad gone. Green Bay and Minnesota should challenge for playoff spots, and Detroit beat Chicago twice last year. It could be another cold, long season in the Windy City.
The Colts open up Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Every Colt fan would like to forget Indianapolis' last game in the RCA Dome, where they were shocked by the Chargers in a divisional playoff game. While there were some concerns over Peyton Manning's health, the Colts should be fine in 2008. There's no reason to think they won't be a top-3 team in their conference. Marvin Harrison needs to improve 2007 was a fluke, and members of the defensive line (other than Dwight Freeney) need to step up. A blowout of the Bears would be a good place to start.
Prediction: Indianapolis (15)
*Monday Night Previews soon!
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Thursday Night Football Kicks Off the 2008 NFL Season
Each week, I'm going to give my breakdown and prediction of each NFL game. The season starts tonight, so I figured now would be as good a time as any to get started. I'm only doing the Thursday Night Game, but the other predictions will be available soon after that. The predictions work on a "confidence level" basis. That means that I pick a winner, and assign a number from 1 (meaning least confident) all the way up to 16 (for most confident). This week, there are 16 games, so 16 is the highest total I can assign to a given game. I'm going to work on getting all my stuff out there earlier in the week from now on (say, by Thursdays) ...
Washington Redskins at New York Giants, 7 PM
2007 Records: Washington was 9-7 (5-3 at home, 4-4 on the road); New York was 10-6 (3-5 at home, 7-1 on the road). Prediction for 2008: Washington will go 8-8, while New York will go 7-9.
Well, here we are.
214 days ago, the New York "football" Giants shocked the football world by stopping the New England Patriots from sealing their place in history with a 19-0 season. They became America's team for that game, and broke the hearts of Patriots fans everywhere (including myself).
But that was a very different Giants team. The 21st century's version of the New York Sack Exchange entered a downward spiral this offseason. Michael Strahan decided that, after winning an elusive Super Bowl in his 15th NFL season, there was no need to continue. So, he's off to a cushy TV gig. Osi Umenyiora wishes the choice to not play the season was his. Cartilage damage suffered in the meaningless preseason will prevent him from recording a single take-down of opposing quarterbacks, after he registered 13 in 2007. Add that total to Strahan's, and 22 sacks from 2007 are gone. Three other defensive starters - linebackers Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson - are no longer around, either.
Still, it's not like the Giants need to cancel the season before it's start. Mercurial tight end Jeremy Shockey is also gone, but Kevin Boss looked good down the stretch in 2007. The Giants still have budding Eli Manning, who may have taken that "leap" in 2007 to the status of a trustworthy franchise quarterback. Running back Brandon Jacobs will provide a bruising ground attack, and wideout Plaxico Burress will still be the go-to guy for Big Blue.
Washington is entering it's second post-Joe Gibbs era. This time, Jim Zorn has been handed the keys by Daniel Snyder. Washington sneaked into the playoffs last year, ripping off four straight wins to punch their ticket. All that was after the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. In 2008, the 'skins hope they won't need another late season run.
I like the Washington offense, but I don't think they have enough at the receiver position to win this game. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are both dynamic, but there is not much behind them. Even with depleted depth along their defensive front, I can see the Giants shutting down Washington's running game, and forcing QB Jason Campbell to make plays. Plus, no defending Super Bowl champion has lost their home opener since the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Does that really apply to the 2008 Giants? Nope. Just wanted to throw a useless fact out there, people!
Here's another one: the 2007 Giants had a 3-5 record at home. In doing so, they became only the second Super Bowl champions in the last three decades to have a non-winning record at home. The 1988 San Francisco 49ers went 4-4 before winning Super Bowl XXIII. OK, I'm done ..
Prediction: New York (7)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants, 7 PM
2007 Records: Washington was 9-7 (5-3 at home, 4-4 on the road); New York was 10-6 (3-5 at home, 7-1 on the road). Prediction for 2008: Washington will go 8-8, while New York will go 7-9.
Well, here we are.
214 days ago, the New York "football" Giants shocked the football world by stopping the New England Patriots from sealing their place in history with a 19-0 season. They became America's team for that game, and broke the hearts of Patriots fans everywhere (including myself).
But that was a very different Giants team. The 21st century's version of the New York Sack Exchange entered a downward spiral this offseason. Michael Strahan decided that, after winning an elusive Super Bowl in his 15th NFL season, there was no need to continue. So, he's off to a cushy TV gig. Osi Umenyiora wishes the choice to not play the season was his. Cartilage damage suffered in the meaningless preseason will prevent him from recording a single take-down of opposing quarterbacks, after he registered 13 in 2007. Add that total to Strahan's, and 22 sacks from 2007 are gone. Three other defensive starters - linebackers Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson - are no longer around, either.
Still, it's not like the Giants need to cancel the season before it's start. Mercurial tight end Jeremy Shockey is also gone, but Kevin Boss looked good down the stretch in 2007. The Giants still have budding Eli Manning, who may have taken that "leap" in 2007 to the status of a trustworthy franchise quarterback. Running back Brandon Jacobs will provide a bruising ground attack, and wideout Plaxico Burress will still be the go-to guy for Big Blue.
Washington is entering it's second post-Joe Gibbs era. This time, Jim Zorn has been handed the keys by Daniel Snyder. Washington sneaked into the playoffs last year, ripping off four straight wins to punch their ticket. All that was after the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. In 2008, the 'skins hope they won't need another late season run.
I like the Washington offense, but I don't think they have enough at the receiver position to win this game. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are both dynamic, but there is not much behind them. Even with depleted depth along their defensive front, I can see the Giants shutting down Washington's running game, and forcing QB Jason Campbell to make plays. Plus, no defending Super Bowl champion has lost their home opener since the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Does that really apply to the 2008 Giants? Nope. Just wanted to throw a useless fact out there, people!
Here's another one: the 2007 Giants had a 3-5 record at home. In doing so, they became only the second Super Bowl champions in the last three decades to have a non-winning record at home. The 1988 San Francisco 49ers went 4-4 before winning Super Bowl XXIII. OK, I'm done ..
Prediction: New York (7)
Monday, January 7, 2008
The NFL Divisional Playoffs
The AFC Match-Ups
The Jacksonville Jaguars at the New England Patriots, 8 PM on Saturday, CBS
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. New England was 16-0, 8-0 at home.
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh, 31-29 in the Wild Card round. New England had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is now 5-5. New England is 19-12.
Previous postseason history: New England holds a 2 games to 1 advantage over Jacksonville in the playoffs.
Jacksonville has to be thankful to still be alive in this postseason. The Jaguars nearly blew a huge lead on the road against Pittsburgh. The good news? They ARE still alive. The bad news? They have to play the 16-0 Patriots on their home turf. Let's face facts: the Jaguars needed a last minute field goal to beat a Steelers team that was what they had been for all but one of the previous 20 years: frauds. The majority loves Jacksonville, while that same majority loathes the Patriots. Accordingly, some supposed 'experts' have predicted a Jacksonville shocker. Please. Better Quarterback: advantage New England. Better coach: advantage New England. Home field: advantage New England. Luxury of the bye week? You guessed it: New England. Look, Jacksonville is a scary team. They usually don't turn the ball over, they have a tremendous running game, and a stifling defense. Unfortunately for them, they are running into a buzzsaw. New England is the team of the new millennium, and they are having the best season of the new millennium. Conditions should be mild, so I would look for Tom Brady to dissect the Jacksonville defense, utilizing quick, short passes to neutralize the Jaguars' pass rush. When you score an NFL record 589 points in the regular season, you don't expect to be shut down. The Patriots will do whatever they have to do. I'd look for situational back Kevin Faulk to play a large role on draws, screens and check-down passes. On defense, New England tries to take away two or three things that the opposing offense loves to do. In this game, that means the Patriots will put 8 defenders in the box, and force a solid David Garrard and his pedestrian group of receivers to win the game for them. Sorry, but that just won't happen. They don't have the weapons to win a shootout, which is what they will be forced into.
Final Score: New England 31, Jacksonville 20
The San Diego Chargers at the Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: San Diego was 11-5, 4-4 on the road. Indianapolis was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: San Diego beat Tennessee, 17-6 in the Wild Card round. Indianapolis had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: San Diego is now 8-13. Indianapolis is 17-16.
Previous postseason history: Indianapolis holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over San Diego in the playoffs.
The Chargers just beat a pretty punch-less Tennessee Titans. Sure, Tennessee has a strong defense, but their offense is one of the most anemic in football. I think it's safe to say no one was overly impressed with that game. How can anyone like San Diego's chances in this game? For one thing, their all-world tight end - Antonio Gates - is doubtful to play. A huge blow, since the tight end can be key in exposing the soft spots in a Cover 2 defense (which the Colts often employ). Secondly, it's coach Norv Turner and QB Phillip Rivers on the road in a hostile environment in a big playoff game. 'Nuff said there. Additionally, the Colts are no longer pushovers on defense, as evidenced by the 262 points they allowed in 2007, the lowest in all of football. Just to hammer it home, the Colts are expecting future hall of fame receiver Marvin Harrison back for this week. San Diego beat Indianapolis in Week 10 for a few reasons: 1.) Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions; 2.) Dallas Clark did not play; 3.) Marvin Harrison did not play; 4.) the ultra clutch Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot 29-yard field goal in the final minute and 5.) Indianapolis allowed two returns for touchdowns. How many of those are likely to happen this time around? Oh, and did I mention the Colts only lost by TWO POINTS?? This could be a rout.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34, San Diego 13
The NFC Match-Ups
The Seattle Seahawks at the Green Bay Packers, 4:30 on Saturday, FOX
Regular season records: Seattle was 10-6, 3-5 on the road. Green Bay was 13-3, 7-1 at home.
Last Week: Seattle beat Washington, 35-14 in the Wild Card round. Green Bay had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Seattle is now 7-9. Green Bay is 24-14.
Previous postseason history: Green Bay holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over Seattle in the playoffs.
Seattle kind of sleep walked through the early portion of the 2007 season. Then, starting with a Monday Night blowout of the woeful San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks started to play much better football. Yes, they pounded on some pretty lousy teams, but that's what you have to do. Seattle has relied more heavily than ever on Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, and they have responded. Green Bay is enjoying probably their best season since they went to Super Bowl XXXII following the 1997 campaign. Brett Favre is playing like a three-time league MVP, they Pack have a running game, and young, talented receivers. The defense is solid as well, allowing only 18.2 points per game, which tied for 6th in the NFL with their opponents in this game. The one thing Green Bay lacks? Playoff experience. Outside of Favre, the majority of the team is young and inexperienced, including head coach Mike McCarthy. You know Seattle would love nothing more than to go into Green Bay and stun the Packers, especially coach Mike Holmgren, who helped mold Favre into a future hall of famer. All I know is this: if Green Bay is down by at least 7 in the 4th quarter, Favre will try to throw the team on his shoulders. His skills are not what they once were, and I could see Seattle getting a back-breaking turnover.
Final Score: Seattle 27, Green Bay 21
The New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 on Sunday, FOX
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road. Dallas was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: New York beat Tampa Bay, 24-14 in the Wild Card round. Dallas had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is now 17-23. Dallas is 32-23.
Previous postseason history: None
New York played one of their best games of the season vs Tampa Bay last weekend. The pass rush harassed Bucs QB Jeff Garcia all game long, and that helped limit Tampa to only 14 points. On offense, New York QB Eli Manning played mistake-free football (never a given for him) and the running game got the job done. All of a sudden, some prognosticators are saying the Giants will go into Big D and upset the Cowboys. Not me. Dallas has way too much firepower on offense. Yes, Dallas has lost 2 of their last 3 games and yes, they really haven't played well against a solid opponent since their Week 13 victory over the Packers. There's no denying that teams want to be playing their best football of the season RIGHT NOW. Maybe the Cowboys DID peak too early for the second straight season. But come on: can you really take the dynamic duo of Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin to win back to back ROAD playoff games? Me either. Dallas will jump out to an early lead, and then hold off a frantic Giants rally late.
Final Score: Dallas 30, New York 22
Bruce & Brett both say New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay & Dallas
Last Week: 2-2
Brett & Bruce were both 2-2 as well
The Jacksonville Jaguars at the New England Patriots, 8 PM on Saturday, CBS
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. New England was 16-0, 8-0 at home.
Last Week: Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh, 31-29 in the Wild Card round. New England had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is now 5-5. New England is 19-12.
Previous postseason history: New England holds a 2 games to 1 advantage over Jacksonville in the playoffs.
Jacksonville has to be thankful to still be alive in this postseason. The Jaguars nearly blew a huge lead on the road against Pittsburgh. The good news? They ARE still alive. The bad news? They have to play the 16-0 Patriots on their home turf. Let's face facts: the Jaguars needed a last minute field goal to beat a Steelers team that was what they had been for all but one of the previous 20 years: frauds. The majority loves Jacksonville, while that same majority loathes the Patriots. Accordingly, some supposed 'experts' have predicted a Jacksonville shocker. Please. Better Quarterback: advantage New England. Better coach: advantage New England. Home field: advantage New England. Luxury of the bye week? You guessed it: New England. Look, Jacksonville is a scary team. They usually don't turn the ball over, they have a tremendous running game, and a stifling defense. Unfortunately for them, they are running into a buzzsaw. New England is the team of the new millennium, and they are having the best season of the new millennium. Conditions should be mild, so I would look for Tom Brady to dissect the Jacksonville defense, utilizing quick, short passes to neutralize the Jaguars' pass rush. When you score an NFL record 589 points in the regular season, you don't expect to be shut down. The Patriots will do whatever they have to do. I'd look for situational back Kevin Faulk to play a large role on draws, screens and check-down passes. On defense, New England tries to take away two or three things that the opposing offense loves to do. In this game, that means the Patriots will put 8 defenders in the box, and force a solid David Garrard and his pedestrian group of receivers to win the game for them. Sorry, but that just won't happen. They don't have the weapons to win a shootout, which is what they will be forced into.
Final Score: New England 31, Jacksonville 20
The San Diego Chargers at the Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: San Diego was 11-5, 4-4 on the road. Indianapolis was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: San Diego beat Tennessee, 17-6 in the Wild Card round. Indianapolis had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: San Diego is now 8-13. Indianapolis is 17-16.
Previous postseason history: Indianapolis holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over San Diego in the playoffs.
The Chargers just beat a pretty punch-less Tennessee Titans. Sure, Tennessee has a strong defense, but their offense is one of the most anemic in football. I think it's safe to say no one was overly impressed with that game. How can anyone like San Diego's chances in this game? For one thing, their all-world tight end - Antonio Gates - is doubtful to play. A huge blow, since the tight end can be key in exposing the soft spots in a Cover 2 defense (which the Colts often employ). Secondly, it's coach Norv Turner and QB Phillip Rivers on the road in a hostile environment in a big playoff game. 'Nuff said there. Additionally, the Colts are no longer pushovers on defense, as evidenced by the 262 points they allowed in 2007, the lowest in all of football. Just to hammer it home, the Colts are expecting future hall of fame receiver Marvin Harrison back for this week. San Diego beat Indianapolis in Week 10 for a few reasons: 1.) Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions; 2.) Dallas Clark did not play; 3.) Marvin Harrison did not play; 4.) the ultra clutch Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot 29-yard field goal in the final minute and 5.) Indianapolis allowed two returns for touchdowns. How many of those are likely to happen this time around? Oh, and did I mention the Colts only lost by TWO POINTS?? This could be a rout.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34, San Diego 13
The NFC Match-Ups
The Seattle Seahawks at the Green Bay Packers, 4:30 on Saturday, FOX
Regular season records: Seattle was 10-6, 3-5 on the road. Green Bay was 13-3, 7-1 at home.
Last Week: Seattle beat Washington, 35-14 in the Wild Card round. Green Bay had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: Seattle is now 7-9. Green Bay is 24-14.
Previous postseason history: Green Bay holds a 1 game to 0 advantage over Seattle in the playoffs.
Seattle kind of sleep walked through the early portion of the 2007 season. Then, starting with a Monday Night blowout of the woeful San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks started to play much better football. Yes, they pounded on some pretty lousy teams, but that's what you have to do. Seattle has relied more heavily than ever on Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, and they have responded. Green Bay is enjoying probably their best season since they went to Super Bowl XXXII following the 1997 campaign. Brett Favre is playing like a three-time league MVP, they Pack have a running game, and young, talented receivers. The defense is solid as well, allowing only 18.2 points per game, which tied for 6th in the NFL with their opponents in this game. The one thing Green Bay lacks? Playoff experience. Outside of Favre, the majority of the team is young and inexperienced, including head coach Mike McCarthy. You know Seattle would love nothing more than to go into Green Bay and stun the Packers, especially coach Mike Holmgren, who helped mold Favre into a future hall of famer. All I know is this: if Green Bay is down by at least 7 in the 4th quarter, Favre will try to throw the team on his shoulders. His skills are not what they once were, and I could see Seattle getting a back-breaking turnover.
Final Score: Seattle 27, Green Bay 21
The New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 on Sunday, FOX
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road. Dallas was 13-3, 6-2 at home.
Last Week: New York beat Tampa Bay, 24-14 in the Wild Card round. Dallas had the bye week.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is now 17-23. Dallas is 32-23.
Previous postseason history: None
New York played one of their best games of the season vs Tampa Bay last weekend. The pass rush harassed Bucs QB Jeff Garcia all game long, and that helped limit Tampa to only 14 points. On offense, New York QB Eli Manning played mistake-free football (never a given for him) and the running game got the job done. All of a sudden, some prognosticators are saying the Giants will go into Big D and upset the Cowboys. Not me. Dallas has way too much firepower on offense. Yes, Dallas has lost 2 of their last 3 games and yes, they really haven't played well against a solid opponent since their Week 13 victory over the Packers. There's no denying that teams want to be playing their best football of the season RIGHT NOW. Maybe the Cowboys DID peak too early for the second straight season. But come on: can you really take the dynamic duo of Eli Manning and coach Tom Coughlin to win back to back ROAD playoff games? Me either. Dallas will jump out to an early lead, and then hold off a frantic Giants rally late.
Final Score: Dallas 30, New York 22
Bruce & Brett both say New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay & Dallas
Last Week: 2-2
Brett & Bruce were both 2-2 as well
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Wild Card Weekend in the NFL (NFC Match Ups)
The Washington Redskins at the Seattle Seahawks, 4:30 on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Washington was 9-7, 4-4 on the road; Seattle was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 14, 2006, Washington lost to Seattle in a divisional playoff game, 20-10. On January 14, 2007, Seattle lost to Chicago in a divisional playoff game, 27-24.
All-time record in the postseason: Washington is 23-16. Seattle is 6-9.
While Washington is thankful they have young Jason Campbell at quarterback for the future, they must be just as thankful that they have veteran Todd Collins in the interim. After going a decade without starting a single NFL game, the pride of Walpole, MA has guided the 'Skins back from the cusp of elimination. Running back Clinton Portis, once thought to be fragile, has turned into a workhorse. Santana Moss is once again a dynamic part of the offense, and H back Chris Cooley continues to be a reliable target. Though they've allowed some high point totals this season, Washington has had a fairly stingy defense. While giving up only 19 points per contest, the unit boasts a top 5 rushing defense.
Over the second half of the season, Seattle played their most consistent football since their Super Bowl run two years ago. Matt Hasselbeck had another fine season at quarterback, and he needed to, because running back Shaun Alexander was banged up and/or ineffective for most of the season. The former MVP averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a full yard less than his back up - Maruice Morris. The receiving corps is above average, with Bobby Engram leading the way with 94 catches. The real surprise has been the play of the Seahawks defense. The outside pass rush has been especially strong, as Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson have combined for 24 of the unit's 45 sacks.
The Bottom Line: Washington has been playing on an emotional high since the death of star safety Sean Taylor. Collins has played like a pro bowler, and the rest of the team has played at an equally high level. Still, Seattle has to be considered the favorite in this game. Since Qwest Field opened, the Seahawks have enjoyed arguably the best homefield advantage in the NFL. They lost one 1 game at home during the regular season, and coach Mike Holmgren always saves his best gameplans for the playoffs. Washington's Joe Gibbs is no slouch either, but Seattle clearly has the more talented team. Seattle will look to shut down Washington's ground attack, then look to see if Collins and his receivers can beat them. I don't see that happening. The Redskin's hot streak - and their season - should come to an end.
Final Score: Seattle 23, Washington 10
The New York Giants at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM on Sunday, Fox
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road; Tampa Bay was 9-7, 6-2 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2007, New York lost to Philadelphia in a Wild Card round game, 23-20. On January 7, 2006, Tampa Bay lost to Washington, 17-10.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is 16-23. Tampa Bay is 6-8.
The G-Men will look to win their first playoff game since they shut out the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Title Game. Eli Manning has been a classic "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" this season. He will need to play well in the face of the Tampa Bay blitz. When healthy, Brandon Jacobs has been a throwback type, looking to delver a blow, rather than running around defenders. The 6' 5" Plaxico Burress has created mismatches for opposing secondaries all season long. Defensively, New York relies on pressuring the passer, and they lead the NFL with 53 QB takedowns. A top 10 rushing defense doesn't hurt either.
Tampa Bay won their division title, but that doesn't say all that much, as the other 3 NFC South teams had a combined record of 18-30. The Buccaneers aren't particularly explosive on offense, but QB Jeff Garcia has done what coach John Gruden brought him in to do: provide leadership, not make mistakes, and hit the occasional big play when it's there. Garcia was born to play in the west coast offense, and is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay. In the backfield, the surprising play of Earnest Graham has helped the team overcome the season ending injury of Cadillac Williams. The 36 year old legs of Joey Galloway have continued to serve him well, as he topped 1,000 yards receiving again. It's no mystery what the Giants will primarily see from the Tampa Bay defense: heavy doses of the Cover 2. Their bread and butter has helped Tampa give up only 171 passing yards per game, the lowest total in the NFL.
The Bottom Line: If the good Eli Manning shows up, the Giants will be in excellent shape. However, it's more likely that the bad one will show up. You know: the one who folds like a cheap suit when pressured, throws off his back foot, and makes generally awful decisions. The pressure is also on Jacobs and the New York ground attack. They need to keep the offense out of 3rd and long situations. For Tampa Bay, they just need to keep the game close until late. The Bucs will look to neutralize the Giants pass rush by calling draws and screens, and throwing off 3 step drops. Tampa has the better coach, quarterback and they are playing at home. Barring a couple of catastrophic mistakes, Tampa should advance to the next round.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 17, New York 10
Picks for the weekend:
Brett says Washington, Jacksonville, New York & Tennessee
Bruce says Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay & San Diego
Regular season records: Washington was 9-7, 4-4 on the road; Seattle was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 14, 2006, Washington lost to Seattle in a divisional playoff game, 20-10. On January 14, 2007, Seattle lost to Chicago in a divisional playoff game, 27-24.
All-time record in the postseason: Washington is 23-16. Seattle is 6-9.
While Washington is thankful they have young Jason Campbell at quarterback for the future, they must be just as thankful that they have veteran Todd Collins in the interim. After going a decade without starting a single NFL game, the pride of Walpole, MA has guided the 'Skins back from the cusp of elimination. Running back Clinton Portis, once thought to be fragile, has turned into a workhorse. Santana Moss is once again a dynamic part of the offense, and H back Chris Cooley continues to be a reliable target. Though they've allowed some high point totals this season, Washington has had a fairly stingy defense. While giving up only 19 points per contest, the unit boasts a top 5 rushing defense.
Over the second half of the season, Seattle played their most consistent football since their Super Bowl run two years ago. Matt Hasselbeck had another fine season at quarterback, and he needed to, because running back Shaun Alexander was banged up and/or ineffective for most of the season. The former MVP averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a full yard less than his back up - Maruice Morris. The receiving corps is above average, with Bobby Engram leading the way with 94 catches. The real surprise has been the play of the Seahawks defense. The outside pass rush has been especially strong, as Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson have combined for 24 of the unit's 45 sacks.
The Bottom Line: Washington has been playing on an emotional high since the death of star safety Sean Taylor. Collins has played like a pro bowler, and the rest of the team has played at an equally high level. Still, Seattle has to be considered the favorite in this game. Since Qwest Field opened, the Seahawks have enjoyed arguably the best homefield advantage in the NFL. They lost one 1 game at home during the regular season, and coach Mike Holmgren always saves his best gameplans for the playoffs. Washington's Joe Gibbs is no slouch either, but Seattle clearly has the more talented team. Seattle will look to shut down Washington's ground attack, then look to see if Collins and his receivers can beat them. I don't see that happening. The Redskin's hot streak - and their season - should come to an end.
Final Score: Seattle 23, Washington 10
The New York Giants at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM on Sunday, Fox
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road; Tampa Bay was 9-7, 6-2 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2007, New York lost to Philadelphia in a Wild Card round game, 23-20. On January 7, 2006, Tampa Bay lost to Washington, 17-10.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is 16-23. Tampa Bay is 6-8.
The G-Men will look to win their first playoff game since they shut out the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Title Game. Eli Manning has been a classic "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" this season. He will need to play well in the face of the Tampa Bay blitz. When healthy, Brandon Jacobs has been a throwback type, looking to delver a blow, rather than running around defenders. The 6' 5" Plaxico Burress has created mismatches for opposing secondaries all season long. Defensively, New York relies on pressuring the passer, and they lead the NFL with 53 QB takedowns. A top 10 rushing defense doesn't hurt either.
Tampa Bay won their division title, but that doesn't say all that much, as the other 3 NFC South teams had a combined record of 18-30. The Buccaneers aren't particularly explosive on offense, but QB Jeff Garcia has done what coach John Gruden brought him in to do: provide leadership, not make mistakes, and hit the occasional big play when it's there. Garcia was born to play in the west coast offense, and is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay. In the backfield, the surprising play of Earnest Graham has helped the team overcome the season ending injury of Cadillac Williams. The 36 year old legs of Joey Galloway have continued to serve him well, as he topped 1,000 yards receiving again. It's no mystery what the Giants will primarily see from the Tampa Bay defense: heavy doses of the Cover 2. Their bread and butter has helped Tampa give up only 171 passing yards per game, the lowest total in the NFL.
The Bottom Line: If the good Eli Manning shows up, the Giants will be in excellent shape. However, it's more likely that the bad one will show up. You know: the one who folds like a cheap suit when pressured, throws off his back foot, and makes generally awful decisions. The pressure is also on Jacobs and the New York ground attack. They need to keep the offense out of 3rd and long situations. For Tampa Bay, they just need to keep the game close until late. The Bucs will look to neutralize the Giants pass rush by calling draws and screens, and throwing off 3 step drops. Tampa has the better coach, quarterback and they are playing at home. Barring a couple of catastrophic mistakes, Tampa should advance to the next round.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 17, New York 10
Picks for the weekend:
Brett says Washington, Jacksonville, New York & Tennessee
Bruce says Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay & San Diego
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Wild Card Weekend in the NFL
AFC Match Ups
The Jacksonville Jaguars at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 8 PM on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. Pittsburgh was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2006, Jacksonville lost a Wild Card game to New England, 28-3. On February 5, 2006, Pittsburgh beat Seattle, 21-10 in Super Bowl XL.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is 4-5. Pittsburgh is 28-18.
Jacksonville is clearly the sexy team heading into the playoffs. In many circles, they - not the Indianapolis Colts - are believed to be the team with the best shot at upsetting the Patriots. It's easy to see why. At quarterback, David Garrard threw only 3 interceptions in 325 attempts, compared to 18 touchdowns. In the backfield, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have combined for 1,970 yards on the ground, to go along with 14 TD's. On defense, Jacksonville is pretty stingy, giving up only 19 points per game, and picking off 20 passes so far.
Pittsburgh is in a curious position. They are not playing their best football heading into the playoffs. Beginning with their Week 14 loss to the Patriots, the Steelers lost 3 of their final 4 games. A big part of postseason football is a strong running game, and Pittsburgh was dealt a huge blow when star back Willie Parker was lost for the season with an injury. At least QB Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from a nightmare 2006 season. The pressure will be on him and the receivers to make big plays. On defense, Pittsburgh had a solid year statistically. They allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per contest, to go along with the 3rd fewest rushing yards. Overall, Pittsburgh gave up only 16.8 points per game.
Bottom Line: This is a tough game to call. Jacksonville is a young, talented, physical and athletic team. Then again, they are inexperienced, and don't have great receivers. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but don't have a terrific running game anymore. Plus, Jacksonville already went into Pittsburgh and won this season. Still, I think Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will make the necessary adjustments, and Pittsburgh's offense will make enough big plays to win.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 21
The Tennessee Titans at the San Diego Chargers, 4:30 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: Tennessee was 10-6, 5-3 on the road. San Diego was 11-5, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: Tennessee lost a Wild Card game to New England, 17-14, on January 10, 2004. San Diego lost a divisional playoff game to New England, 24-21, on January 14, 2007.
All-Time Record in the postseason: Tennessee is 14-17. San Diego is 7-13.
Early in the 2007 season, the Titans were thought to be the 3rd best team in the AFC, behind only the Patriots and Colts. However, that is no longer the case. Second year quarterback Vince Young hasn't developed, and the Titans are near the bottom of the league in nearly every major passing category. It's not like you can blame all of that on Young though. Look at who he's throwing to: Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife, Eric Moulds and Brandon Jones were his top 5 receivers. They will need to step up. Thankfully, LenDale White has given Tennessee a top 5 running game to take the pressure off of Young. Defensively, the Titans are in the league's top 10 in passing yardage, rushing yardage, points allowed and sacks recorded. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is a monster in the middle, and will need a big game if the Titans are to stop the Chargers' running game.
San Diego had a nightmare start to their season. They lost 3 of their first 4, LaDainian Tomlinson looked mortal, and no one seemed to be buying into new coach Norv Turner's philosophy. Since then, the Chargers are 10-2, LT looks like LT, and they're contenders again. QB Phillip Rivers didn't duplicate the success of his 2006 Pro Bowl season, but played at an acceptable level. At the wide receiver position, midseason pick up Chris Chambers has helped, but more is needed. While San Diego only gave up an average of 17.8 points per game, they are susceptible to a strong running game. The emergence of Antonio Cromartie helped the Chargers lead the NFL in interceptions with 30.
Bottom Line: It's all about setting the tempo in this game. If the Chargers break out to a quick double digit lead, that won't allow the Titans to pound the ball as much as they want. QB Vince Young and the passing game would be forced to carry the load, and that hasn't been a good thing recently. San Diego thrives on pressuring quarterbacks into sacks and interceptions. This game will be a big test for Chargers coach Norv Turner, who hasn't had a lot of postseason exposure. I just don't think the Titans have enough offensive firepower to win.
Final score: San Diego 23, Tennessee 17
Tomorrow: NFC Match Ups
The Jacksonville Jaguars at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 8 PM on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Jacksonville was 11-5, 5-3 on the road. Pittsburgh was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2006, Jacksonville lost a Wild Card game to New England, 28-3. On February 5, 2006, Pittsburgh beat Seattle, 21-10 in Super Bowl XL.
All-time record in the postseason: Jacksonville is 4-5. Pittsburgh is 28-18.
Jacksonville is clearly the sexy team heading into the playoffs. In many circles, they - not the Indianapolis Colts - are believed to be the team with the best shot at upsetting the Patriots. It's easy to see why. At quarterback, David Garrard threw only 3 interceptions in 325 attempts, compared to 18 touchdowns. In the backfield, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have combined for 1,970 yards on the ground, to go along with 14 TD's. On defense, Jacksonville is pretty stingy, giving up only 19 points per game, and picking off 20 passes so far.
Pittsburgh is in a curious position. They are not playing their best football heading into the playoffs. Beginning with their Week 14 loss to the Patriots, the Steelers lost 3 of their final 4 games. A big part of postseason football is a strong running game, and Pittsburgh was dealt a huge blow when star back Willie Parker was lost for the season with an injury. At least QB Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from a nightmare 2006 season. The pressure will be on him and the receivers to make big plays. On defense, Pittsburgh had a solid year statistically. They allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per contest, to go along with the 3rd fewest rushing yards. Overall, Pittsburgh gave up only 16.8 points per game.
Bottom Line: This is a tough game to call. Jacksonville is a young, talented, physical and athletic team. Then again, they are inexperienced, and don't have great receivers. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but don't have a terrific running game anymore. Plus, Jacksonville already went into Pittsburgh and won this season. Still, I think Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will make the necessary adjustments, and Pittsburgh's offense will make enough big plays to win.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 21
The Tennessee Titans at the San Diego Chargers, 4:30 PM on Sunday, CBS
Regular season records: Tennessee was 10-6, 5-3 on the road. San Diego was 11-5, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: Tennessee lost a Wild Card game to New England, 17-14, on January 10, 2004. San Diego lost a divisional playoff game to New England, 24-21, on January 14, 2007.
All-Time Record in the postseason: Tennessee is 14-17. San Diego is 7-13.
Early in the 2007 season, the Titans were thought to be the 3rd best team in the AFC, behind only the Patriots and Colts. However, that is no longer the case. Second year quarterback Vince Young hasn't developed, and the Titans are near the bottom of the league in nearly every major passing category. It's not like you can blame all of that on Young though. Look at who he's throwing to: Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife, Eric Moulds and Brandon Jones were his top 5 receivers. They will need to step up. Thankfully, LenDale White has given Tennessee a top 5 running game to take the pressure off of Young. Defensively, the Titans are in the league's top 10 in passing yardage, rushing yardage, points allowed and sacks recorded. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is a monster in the middle, and will need a big game if the Titans are to stop the Chargers' running game.
San Diego had a nightmare start to their season. They lost 3 of their first 4, LaDainian Tomlinson looked mortal, and no one seemed to be buying into new coach Norv Turner's philosophy. Since then, the Chargers are 10-2, LT looks like LT, and they're contenders again. QB Phillip Rivers didn't duplicate the success of his 2006 Pro Bowl season, but played at an acceptable level. At the wide receiver position, midseason pick up Chris Chambers has helped, but more is needed. While San Diego only gave up an average of 17.8 points per game, they are susceptible to a strong running game. The emergence of Antonio Cromartie helped the Chargers lead the NFL in interceptions with 30.
Bottom Line: It's all about setting the tempo in this game. If the Chargers break out to a quick double digit lead, that won't allow the Titans to pound the ball as much as they want. QB Vince Young and the passing game would be forced to carry the load, and that hasn't been a good thing recently. San Diego thrives on pressuring quarterbacks into sacks and interceptions. This game will be a big test for Chargers coach Norv Turner, who hasn't had a lot of postseason exposure. I just don't think the Titans have enough offensive firepower to win.
Final score: San Diego 23, Tennessee 17
Tomorrow: NFC Match Ups
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