Week 1 Picks and breakdowns

Sorry for the lengthy post, but I wanted to sneak in some previews with the picks!

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1 PM
2007 Records: Cincinnati was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Baltimore was 5-11 (4-4 at home)

Since head coach Marvin Lewis arrived for the 2003 season, the Bengals have been a team with an explosive offense, but a shoddy defense. In 2008, they may have a shoddy offense, and an implosive defense. The Bengals handed the starting running back job to 5th year veteran Chris Perry when they cut Rudi Johnson. Perry was a college standout at Michigan, but has done little to prove himself at the next level, and he fractured his leg in the 2006 season. The Bengals also cut team captain and offensive tackle Willie Anderson. On defense, there are no impact players, although rookie Keith Rivers could spotlight a thin linebacker corps.

Everything looked great for Baltimore in 2007: they were 4-2, an in playoff contention. Then they fell to 4-4 ... then 4-6 .... before anyone knew what happened, Baltimore closed the season at 5-11, and head coach Brian Billick was gone. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden retired after the year. After a 2006 season that they dominated defensively, the Ravens slipped big-time, all the way down to allowing 384 points, the 10th most in the NFL. John Harbaugh is thew new man at the helm, and the Ravens are looking to get back to their 2006 form.

I think both teams are rebuilding. Both are about equal in terms of talent. Cincinnati does have the more proven quarterback and receivers, but I like Baltimore's running game and defense better. Plus, they are playing at home, sooo..

Prediction: Baltimore (4)

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM
2007 Records: Houston was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); Pittsburgh was 10-6 (7-1 at home)

The task for the 2008 Texans is simple: beat the good NFL teams. In 2007, the Texans were a woeful 2-6 against playoff teams. Only 2 of their 8 wins were against playoff teams too. The AFC South produced three playoff teams, and it doesn't look like the division got any softer around the Texans. With a developing defense centered around former #1 pick Mario Williams, the Texans are going to look to knock the Colts off their pedestal. My sleeper: rookie running back Steve Slaton. The Texans' backfield was not that great last year, so he should see a lot of opportunities.

In the AFC last year, the Steelers looked like a strong contender for the first 3/4 of the season. But starting with a blowout at New England, the Steelers went into a tailspin, finishing 1-3 over the final 4 weeks, and suffering a disappointing loss against Jacksonville in the wild card round. There really isn't any reason to believe the Steelers won't return as a top-4 AFC team. The Bengals and Ravens are re-building, and talks of the Browns taking the AFC North are probably premature. While I think the Texans will get even better this season, I just think they will be too one-dimensional on offense this early in the season. I can easily see Pittsburgh focusing on the pass, and making it a long day for Texans QB Matt Schaub.

Prediction: Pittsburgh (11)

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
2007 Records: Detroit was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Atlanta was 4-12 (3-5 at home).

Detroit was the NFC's Cinderella team last season, as they sat at 6-2 at the halfway point ... then they went 1-7. It's not even like their losses were all that close. In those 7 contests, the Lions were defeated by an average of nearly 17 points. It's quite possible that the rest of the NFL caught on to the Lions' pass-happy offense. I think the Lions will try to maintain some semblance of balance in 2008, especially with offensive "whiz" Mike Martz off to San Francisco.

Falcon fans saw more crap in 2007 than a toilet at taco bell. It Started with the embarrassing Michael Vick saga, continued with the Bobby Petrino premature departure and wrapped up with a 4-12 campaign. I guess it's not like anyone was paying attention in Atlanta anyway. In fact, this game was in serious jeopardy of being blacked out locally up until just a few days ago. At least the Falcons are trying to revamp their offense. Top pick Matt Ryan makes his debut at QB, and Michael "The Burner" Turner will finally get the chance to be the main runner on an NFL team. In this match-up, I think Detroit will narrowly escape with a victory. I could see both offenses moving fairly easy, but I just think Ryan will make one too many mistakes.

Prediction: Detroit (5)

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
2007 Records: Seattle was 10-6 (3-5 on the road); Buffalo was 7-9 (4-4 at home).

This is Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's swan song. While I was never particularly awed by him, his resume is fairly impressive, and his teams are always in contention. The Seahawks have generally had a pretty balanced West Coast offense attack under Holmgren, with Matt Hasselbeck slinging passes and Shaun Alexander churning out 1,000+ yard seasons. But Alexander was cut, and was nowhere near his MVP form the past two seasons. Now, the 'Hawks will really be leaning on Hasselbeck to put up points, as they have a revamped backfield, with newly acquired Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The defense is OK, but they still have tire marks on the front of their jerseys after getting run over by the Packers in the playoffs last January.

The Bills went on a roller coaster ride for the 2007 season. They started out 1-4, got above .500 a few times, and ended at 7-9. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and the Jets and Dolphins have reloaded, so life won't get easier for Buffalo. At least QB Trent Edwards looks like a competent signal caller, and back Marshawn Lynch is a tough young running back. If things work out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see Buffalo finishing with a winning record. In this game, I think the difference will be on special teams, where the Bills have standout return men in Roscoe Parrish and Terrence McGee.

Prediction: Buffalo (5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
2007 Records: Jacksonville was 11-5 (5-3 on the road); Tennessee was 10-6 (5-3 at home)

Jacksonville had a successful 2007 campaign, but it ended in disappointment with a 31-20 loss to New England in the playoffs. The thing that stood out about that game was the ease in which Tom Brady picked apart the Jags defense, as he had only 2 incompletions in 28 pass attempts. The Jaguars picked up a pair of pass rushers in the draft, as they felt that was their major weakness in 2007. The group of wide receivers could still be better, especially when Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter are starting. At least the Jaguars know what their strengths are: a quarterback who avoids mistakes (David Garrard), a power running game and a stout defense.

Tennessee has a deep backfield, headed by Lendale White, but that's about it on offense. QB Vince Young looked like regressed in his second year, probably because he had no difference makers at wide receiver. Free agent acquisition Alge Crumpler will be looked at as the go-to guy at tight end. The defense remains strong, and has added new/old face Jevon Kearse. I don't see the formula for Tennessee changing: limited offense, strong defense and win the turnover game. I think this is the year Jacksonville puts some distance between themselves and Tennessee. They seem more talented on both sides of the ball, even though both teams are equally physical.

Prediction: Jacksonville (2)

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM
2007 Records: New York was 4-12 (1-7 on the road); Miami was 1-15 (1-7 at home)

It's safe to say the Jets were not pleased with how 2007 went. They went out in the offseason and did something about it, too. The offensive line is revamped, with Damien Woody and Alan Faneca joining the fold. The defense has added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and rookie Vernon Gholston. Of course, the biggest splash was getting Brett Favre when he came out of retirement, and releasing noodle-armed QB Chad Pennington (more on him in a moment). The Jets don't want to just challenge for a playoff spot, they want to know the Patriots off their AFC East throne.

The Dolphins hit rock bottom in 2007. Years of atrocious draft classes, bad front office moves and declining talent led to an unsightly 1-15 season. Wholesale changes ensued, including the firing of Cam Cameron and the arrival of Bill Parcells. Parcells is good, but even he is going to need a few years to get the Dolphins back to something resembling respectability. Pennington is now in Miami, and gets an immediate chance at some payback against his former team. His teammates are going to need to be as fired up if the Dolphins even want a chance. The Jets have some flaws, like a lack of depth at receiver and a questionable running game, but Miami is unlikely to have enough firewpower to beat them.

Prediction: New York (13)

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 PM
2007 Results: Kansas City was 4-12 (2-6 on the road); New England was 16-0 (8-0 at home)

No need to recap the Patriots 2007 season. They entered with astronomically high expectations, got busted for Spygate, blew teams out of the water, set records, steamrolled to the Super Bowl ... and lost a shocking game to the Giants. They lost Asante Samuel to the Eagles in free agency, but that was the only real impact loss. Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Donte Stallworth were not spectacular players. The really important concern is the health of Tom Brady, the only truly irreplaceable Patriot. The defense added youth in the draft, primarily with inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Looking around the AFC, there's no reason to think the Patriots won't be the early favorites to return to the Big Dance.

While most people don't remember it, the Chiefs actually started 2007 with a respectable 4-3 record ... before they lost 9 straight. The Chiefs have a talented, if shaky big three on offense. Larry Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in week 9, and will look to maneuver behind and through a suspect offensive line. Tight end Tony Gonzalez is another year older, though he is still productive, and had 99 catches last year. Receiver Dwayne Bowe will look to avoid the sophomore slump. The defense was in the middle of the pack last season, but lost their top player - end Jarred Allen - to the Vikings. The Chiefs are rebuilding, and would be lucky to reach .500. I'd expect a blowout at the hands of the Patriots.

Prediction: New England (16)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
2007 Results: Tampa Bay was 9-7 (3-5 on the road); New Orleans was 7-9 (3-5 at home)

Tampa Bay rebounded big-time for their rough 2006 campaign. John Gruden's team still hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII though. A lot of people stepped in and got them to the postseason, including QB Jeff Garcia and running back Earnest Graham. The defense was strong, even if they weren't reminding anyone of the title-winning edition earlier this millennium. I just think too many key players on Tampa Bay have more good years behind them then in front of them, including Garcia, receiver Joey Galloway, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. The Panthers are primed for a bounce back year, as are the Saints.

All the good feelings from the 2006 season were washed away by a depressing 2007 finish for New Orleans. The offense should return to it's high-powered attack, with Drew Brees behind center, and a recovered Deuce McCAllister and a re-dedicated Reggie Bush in the running back stable. Marques Colston is a complete receiver, and Devery Henderson is the deep threat. The real X factor is tight end Jeremy Shockey. He found out that the Giants didn't need him to win a title, and he was no longer needed, period. If he stay healthy, he is one of the best tight ends in football. The defense has talent, but it's just a question of them forming a cohesive unit. I can see New Orleans using this game against a divisional opponent as a launching pad to a winning season. They should have too much firepower for the Bucs defense.

Prediction: New Orleans (6)

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 PM
2007 Results: St. Louis was 3-13 (2-6 at home); Philadelphia was 8-8 (3-5 at home)

St. Louis season was over pretty early in 2007. Injuries and ineffectiveness on both sides of the ball put them in an 0-8 hole, and they never showed signs of life. Steven Jackson and Torry Holt were the only consistent weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal. Also, future Hall of Fame left tackle Orlando Pace missed the final 15 games. There's some talent on the Rams roster, but not enough to win any more than 6 or 7 games.

The Eagles saved face down the stretch in 2007 with three wins in a row. If Donovan McNabb stays healthy for the first time since 2004, there's no reason to think Philadelphia can't return to the playoffs. Brian Westbrook is a dynamic running back, and even though the Eagles will be without Kevin Curtis, this should be a good game for the other receivers to step up, including Reggie Brown and rookie DeSean Jackson. This is a far cry from "The Greatest Show on Turf", and the Eagles should have little trouble dispatching St. Louis.

Prediction: Philadelphia (13)

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Carolina was 7-9 (5-3 on the road); San Diego was 11-5 (7-1 at home)

Carolina has been disappointing the last two seasons after coming within one game of Super Bowl XL. QB Jake Delhomme looks to have a fully healthy season for the first time since 2005. The Panthers will be without superstar receiver Steve Smith though, who just happened to get into a fist fight with a teammate - again. Mushin Muhammad is back, and he's looking to bounce back after some lean years in Chicago. The defense isn't particularly great, but it shouldn't prevent the Panthers from contending for a playoff spot.

The Chargers may just be the most talented team in football. They finally won a few playoff games last year, which was big for a lot of people, coach Norv Turner in particular. The AFC West will offer very little in the way of resistance, as the Chiefs and Raiders are rebuilding, while the Broncos don't look too impressive. The Chargers will start the season with a rout.

Prediction; San Diego (14)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Arizona was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); San Francisco was 5-11 (3-5 at home)

It wasn't easy, but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the right decision in making Kurt Warner his opening day starter at QB over Matt Leinart. Warner played as well as any field general in the NFL over the last half of the season, and Leinart has been spotty - at best. With Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his arsenal, Warner may be just as good in 2008. The defense has some play makers, with Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle. The Cardinals are a sleeper for a playoff position - once again.

San Francisco was supposed to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in 2007. They put everything into the season, including getting an extra draft pick, making trades and big free agent splashes. While they started out OK, they quickly flamed out. The offense was anemic, and the defense wasn't much better. Outside of running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis, there are few pieces to build around. Bay area fans are probably in for another long season.

Prediction: Arizona (9)

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Dallas was 13-3 (7-1 on the road); Cleveland was 10-6 (7-1 at home).

If they're not the most talented team in the NFL, they Cowboys are at least the most talented team in their conference. The number of pro bowlers they sported in 2007 shows that. By the way, who caught Tony Romo's last pass that mattered? Answer: the Giants. Anyway, the Cowboys need to win a playoff game. Their window is only getting smaller as the team gets older and the NFC East gets better.

The Browns have not given their fans much reason to get excited since 1999. Anything less than a trip to the playoffs will be viewed as a monumental disappointment to Cleveland. Every season, there seems to be a team that everyone falls in love with. In 2006, it was the Miami Dolphins, who promptly went 6-10. Last season, it was the 49ers, who had a dismal 5-11 campaign. Whenever a team gets some new pieces, closes the previous season with a few wins and "wins" the offseason, the expectations soar. I don't think this will be the case for Cleveland, but who knows? I do think that Dallas will be too much for them to handle.

Prediction: Dallas (8)

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 PM
2007 Results: Chicago was 7-9 (3-5 on the road); Indianapolis was 13-3 (6-2 at home)

The Bears became just the latest victims of the Super Bowl loser hangover. The once-feared defense had no teeth, and the offense was as lame as ever. Chicago missed running back Thomas Jones more than they thought they would, and Rex Grossman lost his starting job. The Bears offensive attack could be just as lame this year, especially with Mushin Mohammad gone. Green Bay and Minnesota should challenge for playoff spots, and Detroit beat Chicago twice last year. It could be another cold, long season in the Windy City.

The Colts open up Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Every Colt fan would like to forget Indianapolis' last game in the RCA Dome, where they were shocked by the Chargers in a divisional playoff game. While there were some concerns over Peyton Manning's health, the Colts should be fine in 2008. There's no reason to think they won't be a top-3 team in their conference. Marvin Harrison needs to improve 2007 was a fluke, and members of the defensive line (other than Dwight Freeney) need to step up. A blowout of the Bears would be a good place to start.

Prediction: Indianapolis (15)

*Monday Night Previews soon!