Thursday, January 3, 2008

Wild Card Weekend in the NFL (NFC Match Ups)

The Washington Redskins at the Seattle Seahawks, 4:30 on Saturday, NBC
Regular season records: Washington was 9-7, 4-4 on the road; Seattle was 10-6, 7-1 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 14, 2006, Washington lost to Seattle in a divisional playoff game, 20-10. On January 14, 2007, Seattle lost to Chicago in a divisional playoff game, 27-24.
All-time record in the postseason: Washington is 23-16. Seattle is 6-9.

While Washington is thankful they have young Jason Campbell at quarterback for the future, they must be just as thankful that they have veteran Todd Collins in the interim. After going a decade without starting a single NFL game, the pride of Walpole, MA has guided the 'Skins back from the cusp of elimination. Running back Clinton Portis, once thought to be fragile, has turned into a workhorse. Santana Moss is once again a dynamic part of the offense, and H back Chris Cooley continues to be a reliable target. Though they've allowed some high point totals this season, Washington has had a fairly stingy defense. While giving up only 19 points per contest, the unit boasts a top 5 rushing defense.

Over the second half of the season, Seattle played their most consistent football since their Super Bowl run two years ago. Matt Hasselbeck had another fine season at quarterback, and he needed to, because running back Shaun Alexander was banged up and/or ineffective for most of the season. The former MVP averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a full yard less than his back up - Maruice Morris. The receiving corps is above average, with Bobby Engram leading the way with 94 catches. The real surprise has been the play of the Seahawks defense. The outside pass rush has been especially strong, as Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson have combined for 24 of the unit's 45 sacks.

The Bottom Line: Washington has been playing on an emotional high since the death of star safety Sean Taylor. Collins has played like a pro bowler, and the rest of the team has played at an equally high level. Still, Seattle has to be considered the favorite in this game. Since Qwest Field opened, the Seahawks have enjoyed arguably the best homefield advantage in the NFL. They lost one 1 game at home during the regular season, and coach Mike Holmgren always saves his best gameplans for the playoffs. Washington's Joe Gibbs is no slouch either, but Seattle clearly has the more talented team. Seattle will look to shut down Washington's ground attack, then look to see if Collins and his receivers can beat them. I don't see that happening. The Redskin's hot streak - and their season - should come to an end.

Final Score: Seattle 23, Washington 10

The New York Giants at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM on Sunday, Fox
Regular season records: New York was 10-6, 7-1 on the road; Tampa Bay was 9-7, 6-2 at home.
Last postseason game: On January 7, 2007, New York lost to Philadelphia in a Wild Card round game, 23-20. On January 7, 2006, Tampa Bay lost to Washington, 17-10.
All-time record in the postseason: New York is 16-23. Tampa Bay is 6-8.

The G-Men will look to win their first playoff game since they shut out the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Title Game. Eli Manning has been a classic "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" this season. He will need to play well in the face of the Tampa Bay blitz. When healthy, Brandon Jacobs has been a throwback type, looking to delver a blow, rather than running around defenders. The 6' 5" Plaxico Burress has created mismatches for opposing secondaries all season long. Defensively, New York relies on pressuring the passer, and they lead the NFL with 53 QB takedowns. A top 10 rushing defense doesn't hurt either.

Tampa Bay won their division title, but that doesn't say all that much, as the other 3 NFC South teams had a combined record of 18-30. The Buccaneers aren't particularly explosive on offense, but QB Jeff Garcia has done what coach John Gruden brought him in to do: provide leadership, not make mistakes, and hit the occasional big play when it's there. Garcia was born to play in the west coast offense, and is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay. In the backfield, the surprising play of Earnest Graham has helped the team overcome the season ending injury of Cadillac Williams. The 36 year old legs of Joey Galloway have continued to serve him well, as he topped 1,000 yards receiving again. It's no mystery what the Giants will primarily see from the Tampa Bay defense: heavy doses of the Cover 2. Their bread and butter has helped Tampa give up only 171 passing yards per game, the lowest total in the NFL.

The Bottom Line: If the good Eli Manning shows up, the Giants will be in excellent shape. However, it's more likely that the bad one will show up. You know: the one who folds like a cheap suit when pressured, throws off his back foot, and makes generally awful decisions. The pressure is also on Jacobs and the New York ground attack. They need to keep the offense out of 3rd and long situations. For Tampa Bay, they just need to keep the game close until late. The Bucs will look to neutralize the Giants pass rush by calling draws and screens, and throwing off 3 step drops. Tampa has the better coach, quarterback and they are playing at home. Barring a couple of catastrophic mistakes, Tampa should advance to the next round.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 17, New York 10


Picks for the weekend:

Brett says Washington, Jacksonville, New York & Tennessee
Bruce says Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay & San Diego

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