Week 4 NFL Predictions

Here is a game-by-game breakdown of the Week 4 contests. Like last week, I'll choose the winner, along with a corresponding 'confidence rating' in parentheses (1 being least confident, 14 being the most confident). Don't agree with my picks? Think I'm a complete idiot? Just leave your predictions before 1PM tomorrow. If you beat me, then I'll tip my hat and call you my daddy.

Last week: 10 wins, 6 losses. 88 points out of a possible 136.

On to the Week 4 slate of action:

1PM Games

Green Bay Packers (3-0 overall; 1-0 on the road) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2; 1-0 at home)

Last Week: Green Bay beat San Diego, 31-24; Minnesota lost 13-10 vs Kansas City

How the Packers win: Brett Favre continues to be an excellent game-manager, and refrains from reverting to his old gun-slinging mentality. As long as the team wins, it doesn't look like he's going to have a problem taking what the defense gives him.

How the Vikings win: By giving their defense a little help. Minnesota has allowed only 12 points per game, good for 4th in the NFL. If QB Kelly Holcomb and his offense can avoid the costly turnovers, Minnesota may have a chance.

Who will win: Green Bay (3)

Houston Texans (2-1; 1-0 on the road) at Atlanta Falcons (0-3; 0-1 at home)

Last week: Houston lost 30-24 to Indianapolis; Atlanta lost 27-20 to Carolina

How the Texans win: By pounding the ball against the league's 26th ranked run defense. Even without superstar receiver Andre Johnson, the Texans hung tough against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Falcons are still a mess.

How the Falcons win: Maybe the Texans' team bus breaks down on its way to the stadium, forcing a forfeit?

Who will win: Houston (6)

New York Jets (1-2; 0-1 on the road) at Buffalo Bills (0-3; 0-1 at home)

Last Week: New York beat Miami, 31-28; Buffalo lost 38-7 to New England

How the Jets win: They wear down the Bills by letting running back Thomas Jones get in the flow of the game early. He was the workhorse last week, getting 110 yards on 25 carries.

How the Bills win: Buffalo has one of the better special teams units in football, and with return ace Terrence McGee back this week, they might get a spark from him. Unfortunately, I won't have JP Losman to kick around this week, as he's out with a knee injury. The Bills are looking at a potential 2-win season. They need this win if they have any thoughts on winning more than that.

Who will win: Buffalo (1)

Baltimore Ravens (2-1; 0-1 on the road) at Cleveland Browns (1-2; 1-1 at home)

Last week: Baltimore beat Arizona, 26-23; Cleveland lost 26-24 to Oakland

How the Ravens win: By showing the league they were right about former teammate Jamal Lewis. The Ravens front office felt secure enough to let their old running back leave for a team in the same division. And you know Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company are anxious to redeem themselves after last week's shaky performance.

How the Browns win: Copying the blueprint laid out by the Cardinals' passing game last week. QB Derrick Anderson has been pretty solid this year. Then again, when you lose to a team that was riding an 11-game losing streak like Cleveland did ...

Who will win: Baltimore (9)

St Louis Rams (0-3; 0-1 on the road) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0; 1-0 at home)

Last week: St Louis lost 24-3 to Tampa Bay; Dallas beat Chicago, 34-10

How the Rams win: Oh, running back Steven Jackson is out? They're 29th in the league in scoring? 28th in defending the run? Ummm, well .... moving forward ...

How the Cowboys win: By continuing to assert themselves as the dominant team in the NFC. It is early, but Dallas has to be considered the class of the conference right now.

Who will win: Dallas (11)

Chicago Bears (1-2; 0-1 on the road) at Detroit Lions (2-1; 1-0 at home)

Last week: Chicago lost 34-10 to Dallas; Detroit lost 56-21 to Philadelphia

How the Bears win: I don't understand why Chicago didn't start Brian Griese at quarterback sooner. This guy has won a championship before. OK, so that was with the University of Michigan Wolverines in 1997. There's still a reason why the team went with him instead of Rex Grossman. His 104-80 touchdown:interception ratio is pretty solid. Also, it's time for running back Cedric Benson to put up or shut up. He wanted the full-time job. He has it now.

How the Lions win: Whenever you give up 56 points, you know your defense took an early bye week. They shouldn't be as over matched this week. On the other side of the ball, Detroit will look to capitalize against an injury-ravaged Bears defense.

Who will win: Chicago (8)

Oakland Raiders (1-2; 0-1 on the road) at Miami Dolphins (0-3; 0-1 at home)

Last week: Oakland beat Cleveland, 26-24; Miami lost 31-28 to New York

How the Raiders win: They keep doing what they've been doing in terms of running the football. Lamont Jordan is finally showing people why Oakland signed him in the first place. They should have a favorable match-up this week, as Miami enters the contest with the league's 29th ranked run defense.

How the Dolphins win: Running back Ronnie Brown shows his sophomore jinx is fully behind him, and building off last week's great effort against the Jets. Over the past few seasons, the team's defense has been a source of pride. Nowadays, they are showing signs of age. If they want to compete, they'll need to show they are capable of getting key stops. In a match-up of bad teams, I usually like the one playing at home.

Who will win: Miami (5)

4PM Games

Seattle Seahawks (2-1; 0-1 on the road) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1; 1-0 at home)

Last Week: Seattle beat Cincinnati, 24-21; San Francisco lost 37-16 to Pittsburgh

How the Seahawks win: By shoring up the league's 30th ranked pass defense. Seattle will also need to show they are still the kings of the NFC West. This could be a statement game. The 49ers are shooting high this year, and it starts with overtaking Seattle in the division.

How the 49ers win: Hope running back Frank Gore snaps out of his early season funk. Seattle's defense may be just what the doctor ordered. In 2 meetings last year, Gore burned the Seahawks for 356 rushing yards on 53 carries (6.7 yards per attempt).

Who will win: San Francisco (2)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1; 0-1 on the road) at Carolina Panthers (2-1; 0-1 at home)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat St Louis, 24-3; Carolina beat Atlanta, 27-20

How the Bucs win: A defense left for dead continues its revival. This team is starting to look like it could surprise some people. QB Jeff Garcia is playing mistake-free football and completing a high percentage of his passes in the west coast offense.

How the Panthers win: DeShaun Foster builds off of last week's strong outing. Jake Delhomme just needs to avoid the devastating turnover, and this team could be very tough to stop. With Atlanta pretty much dead and New Orleans well on their way, this could end up being a crucial game in the NFC South picture.

Who will win: Carolina (4)

Arizona Cardinals (1-2; 0-2 on the road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0; 2-0 at home)

Last Week: Arizona lost 26-23 to Baltimore; Pittsburgh beat San Francisco, 37-16

How the Cardinals win: They continue to get the ball into the hands of star wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The duo combined for 19 catches and 266 yards last week. They should have more opportunities this week against an aggressive Pittsburgh defense.

How the Steelers win: Pittsburgh just needs to keep doing what they've been doing. The Steel Curtain has only yielded 26 points this season, the best in the NFL. On offense, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just one interception, and he has the league's best ground game to support him.

Who will win: Pittsburgh (13)

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2; 0-2 on the road) at San Diego Chargers (1-2; 1-0 at home)

Last Week: Kansas City beat Minnesota, 13-10; San Diego lost to Green Bay, 31-24

How the Chiefs win: Yep, this season has 'rebuilding' all over it. Running back Larry Johnson amassed only 42 yards last week on the ground. If he doesn't improve upon that total, don't expect the Chiefs to win again this week.

How the Chargers win: You ever see the movie 'Space Jam'? Well, these aliens steal the talent of 5 NBA players. I'm starting to think the same thing happened to LaDainian Tomlinson. How else can you explain his meager 2.3 yards per rushing attempt? Then again, maybe it's the fact the Chargers don't have any weapons outside of LDT and tight end Antonio Gates. One or the other. Either way, both will need to carry this team. If they don't win this week at home against a bad Chiefs team, I'm officially off the bandwagon.

Who will win: San Diego (10)

Denver Broncos (2-1; 1-0 on the road) at Indianapolis Colts (3-0; 1-0 at home)

Last Week: Denver lost to Jacksonville, 23-14; Indianapolis beat Houston, 30-24

How the Broncos win: They put together a complete team effort. Sometimes the running game has been great. Sometimes QB Jay Cutler has been great. Sometimes the defense has been great. The Broncos will need to be clicking on all cylinders to stay with the Colts.

How the Colts win: QB Peyton Manning exploits the mismatches presented to him. Has that ever been a problem for him? A better question: do you remember the last time the Colts lost before Week 6? It was 2004. Basically, this team is always on fire to start the season.

Who will win: Indianapolis (12)

Sunday Night Game

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2; 0-1 on the road) at New York Giants (1-2; 0-1 at home)

Last Week: Philadelphia beat Detroit, 56-21; New York beat Washington, 24-17

How the Eagles win: While they shouldn't need another 56 points, the Eagles will need to demonstrate the ability to produce on a consistent basis. That starts this week vs the Giants, who have given up 97 points, the 3rd highest total in the NFL. Balance on offense - not always a staple of coach Andy Reid - is vital for this team to succeed.

How the Giants win: They finally stop some people on defense. Derrick Ward has done a solid job filling in for an injured Brandon Jaccobs at running back. He'll need to continue that this week. The loser of this match-up will find it very difficult to get back into the NFC East race.

Who will win: Philadelphia (7)

Monday Night Game

New England Patriots (3-0; 1-0 on the road) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2; 1-0 at home)

Last week: New England beat Buffalo, 38-7; Cincinnati lost to Seattle, 24-21

How the Bengals win: Their best chance may be winning a shootout. Ideally, they'd like to grind it out on the ground with Rudi Johnson, but he's out with a bad hamstring. The defense will have to find a way to disrupt the Patriots passing game, whether it be putting pressure on Tom Brady, or mixing up their coverages.

How the Patriots win: Well, the Bengals are ranked 27th in both rushing and pass defense, so the Patriots should be able to dictate the pace of the game. I'd look for them to spread out the Bengals early, and let Brady pick apart their sub par secondary. Also, Cincinnati's kick and punt coverage units have gotten off to a bad start, so this may be a week where Wes Welker or Ellis Hobbs makes a big play.

Who will win: New England (14)