San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
The 49ers may just be the most surprising 2-1 team in football. Well, either them or the Falcons. J.T. O'Sullivan has provided stability to a position that hasn't been able to say that since Jeff Garcia's pro bowl days in the bay area. The 49ers don't look that far behind their NFC West rivals, Seattle and Arizona. New Orleans has suffered back-to-back losses thanks to their vulnerability to the big play on defense. The Saints have the 4th worst passing defense in the entire league. On offense, the Saints are without two of their biggest play-makers: Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. Still, I don't think San Francisco has the weapons to take advantage of New Orleans' holes, especially on the road.
Prediction: New Orleans (9)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets, 1 PM
Arizona is on top of their division, and has a golden opportunity to make a statement on the road against a potential playoff team. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and the Jets' Brett Favre are a long way from their MVP days a decade or so ago, but are still capable of putting on an aerial show. I think the Jets have the better defense, and will make one or two plays to hold the Cardinals enough to win.
Prediction: New York (3)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM
QB Aaron Rodgers and his Packers hit their first bump in the post-Favre road last Sunday night against Dallas. I think it was a simple case of a good team just getting beaten by a very good team. Tampa Bay stole a game last week in Chicago when Brian Griese of all people threw 67 passes in an overtime win. Green Bay will miss cornerback Al Harris eventually, but not this week. There is no way Tampa Bay duplicates their passing success in consecutive weeks.
Prediction: Green Bay (7)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1 PM
Atlanta has beaten two of the absolute worst teams in football: the Lions and Chiefs. But 2-1 is 2-1. The offense of the Falcons is well ahead of the defense, as Atlanta is yielding an average of nearly 20 points a game, which isn't terrible. The problem is Atlanta's run defense, which has looked suspect. Carolina was far from impressive last week in Minnesota, and rank in the middle of the pack in nearly every category. Still, I think they're the better team, and this could be the week when everything clicks for them.
Prediction: Carolina (8)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 PM
Could the Ohio State football team beat either one of these teams to claim the title as best team in the state? Well, no, but the Browns and Bengals haven't matched the success of the Buckeyes in ages. That's certainly continuing this year, as both squads are off to embarrassing 0-3 starts. The Bengals were supposed to continue in mediocrity, while the Browns were everyone's favorite sleeper. When two awful teams meet up, I go with the one playing at home. Plus, the Bengals at least showed signs of life last week in an overtime loss to the Giants.
Prediction: Cincinnati (2)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 PM
Houston has been blown out twice to start their season, and Hurricane Ike was sandwiched between those losses. The Lone Star State team is just looking for win. Texans QB Matt Schaub has looked really rough in two games, getting sacked 8 times, throwing 5 interceptions, and playing a big part in Houston's sputtering start. Maybe the Houston front office fell in love with Schaub during his brief flashes with Atlanta, well before he proved he could do it on a consistent basis. Jacksonville avoided falling into a deep hole last week by knocking off the Colts in the final seconds. Jacksonville got back to what it does best: pound the ball constantly with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, even behind a beat up offensive line. I see no reason to believe Houston wins this game.
Prediction: Jacksonville (12)
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
Minnesota won with new QB Gus Frerotte in last week, but he didn't look that much better than Tavaris Jackson, the guy he replaced. Everyone knows that passing the ball isn't going to get the Vikings anywhere; it just needs to keep the defense honest enough so they don't have 8 or 9 guys stacked close to the line of scrimmage to stuff the run. The Vikings defense is also going to have to carry the team. Tennessee has really been an AFC mirror image of Minnesota. They also have a stout defense, a promising young running back (Chris Johnson), and have made the switch from a struggling young QB (Vince Young) to a veteran (Kerry Collins). I don't expect there to be more than 35 combined points in this slugfest, with the Titans winning a close one.
Prediction: Tennessee (4)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM
The Broncos defense has been giving up points only a little bit slower than their offense can register them. Thankfully for them, they're 3-0. To be fair, Denver has faced two of the more potent offenses in football: San Diego and New Orleans. They go from facing some of the best to one of the worst in week 4. Kansas City looks punch-less, and can't decide what bad QB they want to lead their bad offense. The Chiefs have no direction at this point. This one may be ugly, even at Arrowhead Stadium.
Prediction: Denver (11)
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 PM
San Diego moved the ball at will against the Jets, and forced Brett Favre into some Favre-like throws on Monday night. The Chargers were a team that could afford to fall to 0-2, since they get to play the Raiders and Chiefs a combined 4 times every year. That's 4 wins right there. If they go 6-6 in the other 12, they're in the playoffs. Pretty easy formula, right? Oakland's Darren McFadden is questionable for this game, and there's not much else for Oakland fans to get excited about if he's not playing.
Prediction: San Diego (10)
Buffalo Bills at St. Louis Rams, 4:05 PM
Buffalo is definitely the feel-good team of 2008. They're balanced on offense, and have a pretty feisty defense. When you start playing as well as the Bills, you become potential victims for every coach's nightmare: "The Trap Game". This is a game against a crappy team that a good team might look past, and assume they can show up and win. The Rams are unquestionably the second biggest mess in football, behind only the Oakland Raiders. Rumor has it that St. Louis coach Scott Linehan is going to get fired if his team loses this game. Want to hear something crazy? If that's the case, I think he will KEEP his job, because his team is going to win this game. Any given Sunday, anything can happen. I just think the Rams will get lucky, Steven Jackson will have a big day on the ground, and the coach will be saved.
Prediction: St. Louis (1)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 PM
Washington has looked strong since the opening night of the season, and they stand at 2-1. Unfortunately, they are running into the best team in their division and conference. Dallas have already beaten two of their chief NFC contenders in the Eagles and Packers. Washington doesn't have defensive end Jason Taylor for this game, and they sorely need a pass rush if they want to have any hope of disrupting Dallas QB Tony Romo and winning this game. Dallas should overwhelm Washington, especially in Texas Stadium.
Prediction: Dallas (13)
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears, 8:15 PM
The Eagles made a statement last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers, their Keystone State rivals. The Steelers always pride themselves on being the most physical team on a field, but the Eagles defense harassed QB Ben Roethlisberger all day, and thrashed Willie Parker and the running game. Philly faces a much less formidable offense this week. The only problem is that they may be without all-purpose running back Brian Westbrook. With or without Westbrook, I like the Eagles in this one, in part because the Bears' Devin Hester is questionable too.
Prediction: Philadelphia (5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30 PM on Monday Night
For the first time in a few years, the two teams seem to be evenly matched. Baltimore's defense has played as well as anyone's, and Pittsburgh presents a formidable offense for them. The Steelers will be without Parker, but the Ravens will be without starting corner Samari Rolle. I think the Steelers will hit a few deep balls downfield, and win a low-scoring, pyhsical game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (6)
*Bye Weeks* New England, Miami, Indianapolis, New York Giants, Detroit, Seattle
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Week 3 in the NFL
The start to my 2008 season has been the same as the St. Louis Rams: piss poor. To date, here's where I stand:
Win-Loss: 18-13 through 2 weeks (7-8 last week)
Points: 160 out of a possible 256 (61 out of 120 last week)
Percentage of points: 62.5% through 2 weeks (50.8% last week)
Like I said, if this was a course, I'd be failing.
Hopefully week 3 treats me better!
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
Houston's game against Baltimore last week was washed out by Hurricane Ike, So, the Texans had a de facto bye week. It's impossible to say how the natural disaster is going to effect them for this match-up. Some players will certainly look forward to the welcomed distraction of a game, while others might be burned out from a long week. The Titans have had their own drama this season, with the ongoing Vince Young saga. Kerry Collins will be their starter until the team stumbles, and for the next few weeks anyway, as Young is still hurt. I think the Titans are the better team, but I just have a crazy, illogical hunch that the Texans will win.
Prediction: Houston (4)
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 PM
The Panthers look like a different team with QB Jake Delhomme healthy again. "The Cardiac Cats" have had consecutive comeback wins to open the season, and they have the explosive Steve Smith returning from a two-game suspension. The Vikings are off to a disappointing 0-2 start, and made the switch from Tavaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte at QB. I know Jackson wasn't lighting up the scoreboard, but is Frerotte really the answer? He has a career record of 37-44-1 as a starter, and is 37 years old. He probably won't make too many mistakes at least. I think this is a game where the Minnesota defense will take matters into their own hands, and maybe even get a defensive touchdown out of it. At least Frerotte will have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the backfield. I just can't see the Vikings starting out 0-3.
Prediction: Minnesota (3)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 1 PM
The Dolphins have picked up right where they left off in 2007, and now have just 1 win in their last 21 games, dating back to the end of the 2006 season. Miami's running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have disappointed, and the team ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. The Patriots aren't going to make life any easier on Miami. New England is better in every facet of the game, and they gained some more confident in Matt Cassel with a solid outing against the Jets in week 2. This one should be a romp, even if Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter is planning on it being the team's first win of the year.
Prediction: New England (16)
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants, 1 PM
The Bengals look pathetic on both sides of the ball, as they're averaging 105.5 passing yards per game, dead last in the NFL. On defense, Cincinnati has only registered a single sack in their first two games, good for sole possession of the lowest total in the league. Yep, the Bengals are back to their 1991-2002 form. The Giants are 2-0, and have enjoyed two cakewalks to start the year. This game shouldn't be that tough either.
Prediction: New York (14)
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
The Chiefs are starting their 3rd different quarterback in as many weeks. That should tell you all you need to know about the state of their franchise. Tyler Thigpen is nothing special, and neither is Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle. Larry Johnson doesn't look great, and has only 96 yards on the season. Kansas City has struggled to move the ball on the ground, but their opponents haven't, as the Chiefs are giving up a whopping 213 yards per contest. A running game would be Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan's best friend. Michael Turner will look to return to his week 1 form, and the Chiefs are the defense to do it against. The Falcons are still rebuilding, but they're further along than the Chiefs.
Prediction: Atlanta (13)
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
The Raiders may not be competitors this season, but at least fans will get to watch Darren McFadden run. He'll have to carry the load, as QB Jamarcus Russell and the passing game ranks 31st in all of football. The Bills have struck a great balance on offense, with QB Trent Edwards making smart decisions, and Marshawn Lynch pounding the football. The defense looks stout as well, and I can see the Bills dominating this game.
Prediction: Buffalo (11)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, 1 PM
Tampa enjoyed some home cooking in beating the Falcons last week. They're still not good enough to keep up with the rest of the teams in the conference though. The Bears should be 2-0, but they fumbled away the game in Carolina last weekend. The Bears have a better running game and defense, and I can see them winning a tight, low-scoring game at home.
Prediction: Chicago (8)
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins, 1 PM
The Cardinals have started the 2008 season with wins over the lame 49ers and Dolphins. Kurt Warner has continued his revival in the dessert, and has 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Washington looked like they figured out how to run Jim Zorn's offense last week, and they had a much-needed win. Clinton Portis is running well for the 'skins, and Arizona may be vulnerable to a sustained running attack. This could be the week Jason Taylor breaks out, giving the defense the ability to make Warner uncomfortable.
Prediction: Washington (7)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 PM
The story line for the 2008 Lions is similar to the 2007 one: they can pass on offense, they can't run, and Jon Kitna gets sacked a lot. But unlike 2007 when they started 6-2, Detroit has been humiliated to start the season. The 49ers pulled off the upset of Week 2 with their win in Seattle. J.T. O'Sullivan made some big-time throws, and did enough to keep his team in the game. I can't see the Lions winning this game.
Prediction: San Francisco (5)
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 PM
St. Louis stayed with the Giants for a while last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs ended up beating the Rams by a wide margin. The Rams don't have nearly enough talent on either side of the ball, and they're supposed to be 0-2. The Seahawks weren't supposed to be joining St. Louis in the NFC West basement. Seattle's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, which forced the team to trade for Keary Colbert and sign Koren Robinson. The key to this game is pressuring the quarterback. Well, the Rams offensive line has allowed 10 sacks, the 2nd highest total in the league. The Seahawks defense have 9 sacks, the most in football. And there's no way Seattle loses back-to-back games at home.
Prediction: Seattle (15)
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos, 4:05 PM
The Saints let a golden opportunity to get to 2-0 slip away last week. This game could be a great offensive showcase for quarterbacks Drew Brees and Jay Cutler. The Saints and Broncos both rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in passing defense. Denver has more talent on defense, they're playing well right now, AND they have the homefield advantage.
Prediction: Denver (10)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 PM
The Browns were everyone's sexy pick for a playoff spot. But was their 10-6 record last year merely a mirage? Of their 10 wins, only 1 came against a playoff team (the Seahawks). Of their 6 losses, 3 were against playoff teams. So, they were 1-3 against playoff teams, and 9-3 against everyone else. Cleveland's offense is a mess right now. The running game ranks as one of the worst in the league, and star receiver Braylon Edwards has already had an alarming number of dropped passes. They can ill-afford to fall to 0-3 if they still want to make the playoffs. The Ravens were supposed to play in Houston last weekend, so they ended up having the week off. Baltimore is going to look to pound the ball right at Cleveland, and limit the number of throws for rookie QB Joe Flacco. Baltimore wins by at least 6 points.
Prediction: Baltimore (9)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 4:15 PM
Traditionally a battle of playoff teams, this battle between the Jags and Colts has turned into a clash of the walking wounded. The Jaguars offensive line is banged up, and it's shown, as running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have not got going yet. The Colts are without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Award winner Bob Sanders, so if those two do get going, the Colts will be without their impact defender. Jacksonville always get recognized as a team that is capable of slowing down the Colts offense. However, they never seem to do enough to win, especially in Indianapolis. The Colts weathered a tough challenge from the Vikings last week, and I see them doing it again this week.
Prediction: Indianapolis (6)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:15 PM
The Steelers are probably the best team in the AFC right now, and maybe even the entire NFL. There don't seem to be any glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball. The Eagles nearly pulled off the upset in Dallas on Monday Night Football, but they just ran out of time. The only way I can see Philadelphia beating Pittsburgh is if Donovan McNabb throws for big yardage and his receivers make some big plays down field. The secondary may be the vulnerable point for the Steelers. Otherwise, I like Pittsburgh to win a tight game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (2)
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM
The Cowboys have the most star-studded offense in the NFL. It's a good thing too, because their defense is giving up points in bunches. Aaron Rodgers has done a great job of making cheeseheads forget about Brett Favre. Quick segue: In the 2005 Draft, 3 QB's were taken in the first round. Alex Smith went 1st overall to the 49ers, and has been a colossal bust. Rodgers went 24th overall to the Packers, and is finally a starter. Jason Campbell went to the Redskins with the very next pick, and has been inconsistent. I think it's a safe bet that the 49ers (and maybe Washington) would take Rodgers if they had the chance over their respective quarterbacks. This will be the first test for Rodgers against a bona fide Super Bowl contender. He came on in relief last year against the Cowboys, and performed admirably. I think Rodgers will play well, but he won't put enough points on the board.
Prediction: Dallas (1)
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers, 8:30 PM on Monday Night Football
A lot of people were ready to anoint the Jets as the new kings of the AFC East before they played the Patriots last week. New England had other ideas though, and shut down the Jets offense while playing conservatively themselves. Even if they don't take the division, the Jets are still in line for a playoff spot. The Chargers are another 0-2 team looking to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole. San Diego is too talented of a team to be in that position, though their two defeats were crushing and in the final seconds. With the return of LaDainian Tomlinson, I can see the Chargers controlling this game from start to finish.
Prediction: San Diego (12)
Win-Loss: 18-13 through 2 weeks (7-8 last week)
Points: 160 out of a possible 256 (61 out of 120 last week)
Percentage of points: 62.5% through 2 weeks (50.8% last week)
Like I said, if this was a course, I'd be failing.
Hopefully week 3 treats me better!
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
Houston's game against Baltimore last week was washed out by Hurricane Ike, So, the Texans had a de facto bye week. It's impossible to say how the natural disaster is going to effect them for this match-up. Some players will certainly look forward to the welcomed distraction of a game, while others might be burned out from a long week. The Titans have had their own drama this season, with the ongoing Vince Young saga. Kerry Collins will be their starter until the team stumbles, and for the next few weeks anyway, as Young is still hurt. I think the Titans are the better team, but I just have a crazy, illogical hunch that the Texans will win.
Prediction: Houston (4)
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 PM
The Panthers look like a different team with QB Jake Delhomme healthy again. "The Cardiac Cats" have had consecutive comeback wins to open the season, and they have the explosive Steve Smith returning from a two-game suspension. The Vikings are off to a disappointing 0-2 start, and made the switch from Tavaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte at QB. I know Jackson wasn't lighting up the scoreboard, but is Frerotte really the answer? He has a career record of 37-44-1 as a starter, and is 37 years old. He probably won't make too many mistakes at least. I think this is a game where the Minnesota defense will take matters into their own hands, and maybe even get a defensive touchdown out of it. At least Frerotte will have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the backfield. I just can't see the Vikings starting out 0-3.
Prediction: Minnesota (3)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 1 PM
The Dolphins have picked up right where they left off in 2007, and now have just 1 win in their last 21 games, dating back to the end of the 2006 season. Miami's running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have disappointed, and the team ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. The Patriots aren't going to make life any easier on Miami. New England is better in every facet of the game, and they gained some more confident in Matt Cassel with a solid outing against the Jets in week 2. This one should be a romp, even if Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter is planning on it being the team's first win of the year.
Prediction: New England (16)
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants, 1 PM
The Bengals look pathetic on both sides of the ball, as they're averaging 105.5 passing yards per game, dead last in the NFL. On defense, Cincinnati has only registered a single sack in their first two games, good for sole possession of the lowest total in the league. Yep, the Bengals are back to their 1991-2002 form. The Giants are 2-0, and have enjoyed two cakewalks to start the year. This game shouldn't be that tough either.
Prediction: New York (14)
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
The Chiefs are starting their 3rd different quarterback in as many weeks. That should tell you all you need to know about the state of their franchise. Tyler Thigpen is nothing special, and neither is Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle. Larry Johnson doesn't look great, and has only 96 yards on the season. Kansas City has struggled to move the ball on the ground, but their opponents haven't, as the Chiefs are giving up a whopping 213 yards per contest. A running game would be Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan's best friend. Michael Turner will look to return to his week 1 form, and the Chiefs are the defense to do it against. The Falcons are still rebuilding, but they're further along than the Chiefs.
Prediction: Atlanta (13)
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
The Raiders may not be competitors this season, but at least fans will get to watch Darren McFadden run. He'll have to carry the load, as QB Jamarcus Russell and the passing game ranks 31st in all of football. The Bills have struck a great balance on offense, with QB Trent Edwards making smart decisions, and Marshawn Lynch pounding the football. The defense looks stout as well, and I can see the Bills dominating this game.
Prediction: Buffalo (11)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, 1 PM
Tampa enjoyed some home cooking in beating the Falcons last week. They're still not good enough to keep up with the rest of the teams in the conference though. The Bears should be 2-0, but they fumbled away the game in Carolina last weekend. The Bears have a better running game and defense, and I can see them winning a tight, low-scoring game at home.
Prediction: Chicago (8)
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins, 1 PM
The Cardinals have started the 2008 season with wins over the lame 49ers and Dolphins. Kurt Warner has continued his revival in the dessert, and has 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Washington looked like they figured out how to run Jim Zorn's offense last week, and they had a much-needed win. Clinton Portis is running well for the 'skins, and Arizona may be vulnerable to a sustained running attack. This could be the week Jason Taylor breaks out, giving the defense the ability to make Warner uncomfortable.
Prediction: Washington (7)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 PM
The story line for the 2008 Lions is similar to the 2007 one: they can pass on offense, they can't run, and Jon Kitna gets sacked a lot. But unlike 2007 when they started 6-2, Detroit has been humiliated to start the season. The 49ers pulled off the upset of Week 2 with their win in Seattle. J.T. O'Sullivan made some big-time throws, and did enough to keep his team in the game. I can't see the Lions winning this game.
Prediction: San Francisco (5)
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 PM
St. Louis stayed with the Giants for a while last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs ended up beating the Rams by a wide margin. The Rams don't have nearly enough talent on either side of the ball, and they're supposed to be 0-2. The Seahawks weren't supposed to be joining St. Louis in the NFC West basement. Seattle's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, which forced the team to trade for Keary Colbert and sign Koren Robinson. The key to this game is pressuring the quarterback. Well, the Rams offensive line has allowed 10 sacks, the 2nd highest total in the league. The Seahawks defense have 9 sacks, the most in football. And there's no way Seattle loses back-to-back games at home.
Prediction: Seattle (15)
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos, 4:05 PM
The Saints let a golden opportunity to get to 2-0 slip away last week. This game could be a great offensive showcase for quarterbacks Drew Brees and Jay Cutler. The Saints and Broncos both rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in passing defense. Denver has more talent on defense, they're playing well right now, AND they have the homefield advantage.
Prediction: Denver (10)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 PM
The Browns were everyone's sexy pick for a playoff spot. But was their 10-6 record last year merely a mirage? Of their 10 wins, only 1 came against a playoff team (the Seahawks). Of their 6 losses, 3 were against playoff teams. So, they were 1-3 against playoff teams, and 9-3 against everyone else. Cleveland's offense is a mess right now. The running game ranks as one of the worst in the league, and star receiver Braylon Edwards has already had an alarming number of dropped passes. They can ill-afford to fall to 0-3 if they still want to make the playoffs. The Ravens were supposed to play in Houston last weekend, so they ended up having the week off. Baltimore is going to look to pound the ball right at Cleveland, and limit the number of throws for rookie QB Joe Flacco. Baltimore wins by at least 6 points.
Prediction: Baltimore (9)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 4:15 PM
Traditionally a battle of playoff teams, this battle between the Jags and Colts has turned into a clash of the walking wounded. The Jaguars offensive line is banged up, and it's shown, as running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have not got going yet. The Colts are without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Award winner Bob Sanders, so if those two do get going, the Colts will be without their impact defender. Jacksonville always get recognized as a team that is capable of slowing down the Colts offense. However, they never seem to do enough to win, especially in Indianapolis. The Colts weathered a tough challenge from the Vikings last week, and I see them doing it again this week.
Prediction: Indianapolis (6)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:15 PM
The Steelers are probably the best team in the AFC right now, and maybe even the entire NFL. There don't seem to be any glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball. The Eagles nearly pulled off the upset in Dallas on Monday Night Football, but they just ran out of time. The only way I can see Philadelphia beating Pittsburgh is if Donovan McNabb throws for big yardage and his receivers make some big plays down field. The secondary may be the vulnerable point for the Steelers. Otherwise, I like Pittsburgh to win a tight game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (2)
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM
The Cowboys have the most star-studded offense in the NFL. It's a good thing too, because their defense is giving up points in bunches. Aaron Rodgers has done a great job of making cheeseheads forget about Brett Favre. Quick segue: In the 2005 Draft, 3 QB's were taken in the first round. Alex Smith went 1st overall to the 49ers, and has been a colossal bust. Rodgers went 24th overall to the Packers, and is finally a starter. Jason Campbell went to the Redskins with the very next pick, and has been inconsistent. I think it's a safe bet that the 49ers (and maybe Washington) would take Rodgers if they had the chance over their respective quarterbacks. This will be the first test for Rodgers against a bona fide Super Bowl contender. He came on in relief last year against the Cowboys, and performed admirably. I think Rodgers will play well, but he won't put enough points on the board.
Prediction: Dallas (1)
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers, 8:30 PM on Monday Night Football
A lot of people were ready to anoint the Jets as the new kings of the AFC East before they played the Patriots last week. New England had other ideas though, and shut down the Jets offense while playing conservatively themselves. Even if they don't take the division, the Jets are still in line for a playoff spot. The Chargers are another 0-2 team looking to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole. San Diego is too talented of a team to be in that position, though their two defeats were crushing and in the final seconds. With the return of LaDainian Tomlinson, I can see the Chargers controlling this game from start to finish.
Prediction: San Diego (12)
Sunday, September 14, 2008
*2008 NFL PREDICTIONS*
These are out a week late, but I figured that was better than never. I took week 1 into consideration. It's not like it would have made a difference if I got them out a week ago; there is still more than enough time to prove how off my picks are ...
AFC East
New England Patriots (11-5)
New York Jets (9-7)
Buffalo Bills (8-8)
Miami Dolphins (3-13)
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Cleveland Browns (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (6-10)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) *
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Houston Texans (7-9)
AFC West
San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Denver Broncos (10-6) *
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
* Wild Card
------------------------------------
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) *
Washington Redskins (8-8)
New York Giants (7-9)
NFC North
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Green Bay Packers (10-6) *
Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (10-6)
Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
St. Louis Rams (3-13)
San Francisco 49ers (3-13)
*Wild Card
------------------------------------
AFC Playoffs:
1st round byes: San Diego and Pittsburgh
Wild Card round: Jacksonville over Indy; Denver over New England
Divisional round: San Diego over Denver; Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
AFC Title Game: Pittsburgh over San Diego
------------------------------------
NFC Playoffs:
1st round byes: Dallas and New Orleans
Wild Card round: Arizona over Green Bay; Philadelphia over Chicago
Divisional round: Dallas over Arizona; Philadelphia over New Orleans
NFC Title Game: Dallas over Philadelphia
------------------------------------
Super Bowl XLIII:
Pittsburgh over Dallas
------------------------------------
Awards:
MVP: Adrian Peterson
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Johnson, running back, Tennessee
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jerod Mayo, linebacker, New England
Comeback Player of the Year: Ricky Williams, running back, Miami
AFC East
New England Patriots (11-5)
New York Jets (9-7)
Buffalo Bills (8-8)
Miami Dolphins (3-13)
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Cleveland Browns (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (6-10)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) *
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Houston Texans (7-9)
AFC West
San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Denver Broncos (10-6) *
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
* Wild Card
------------------------------------
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) *
Washington Redskins (8-8)
New York Giants (7-9)
NFC North
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Green Bay Packers (10-6) *
Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (10-6)
Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
St. Louis Rams (3-13)
San Francisco 49ers (3-13)
*Wild Card
------------------------------------
AFC Playoffs:
1st round byes: San Diego and Pittsburgh
Wild Card round: Jacksonville over Indy; Denver over New England
Divisional round: San Diego over Denver; Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
AFC Title Game: Pittsburgh over San Diego
------------------------------------
NFC Playoffs:
1st round byes: Dallas and New Orleans
Wild Card round: Arizona over Green Bay; Philadelphia over Chicago
Divisional round: Dallas over Arizona; Philadelphia over New Orleans
NFC Title Game: Dallas over Philadelphia
------------------------------------
Super Bowl XLIII:
Pittsburgh over Dallas
------------------------------------
Awards:
MVP: Adrian Peterson
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Johnson, running back, Tennessee
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jerod Mayo, linebacker, New England
Comeback Player of the Year: Ricky Williams, running back, Miami
Week 2 in the NFL
Last week, I checked in with a respectable 11-5 record, and scored 99 out of a possible 136 points (72.8%). I'm not liking many of these games, but we'll see how the action unfolds.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 PM
When is life tough for a head coach? When your starting quarterback goes down with an injury, and will be out for 2-4 weeks. When is life tougher? When that same QB sends the coach on a wild goose chase, and threats of suicide are reported. But Jeff Fisher doesn't have time to dwell on the difficulties of Vince Young, as the Titans look to improve to 2-0 with a win over the Bengals. I think the Titans are the better team, and I actually like Kerry Collins as a fill-in starter from time to time. Going against all of that, I'm picking the Bengals because ... well, I don't even know why. I just think it's their week, OK?
Prediction: Cincinnati (6)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 1 PM
Maybe there is life after Favre! Aaron Rodgers looked pretty poised last week, as he should have: he had plenty of time to study the last three seasons, as he got splinters in his ass watching ol' #4 sling it into quadruple coverage. The Packers contained a one-dimensional offense last week, as the power run-oriented Vikings were held below 20 points. This week, the aerial attack of the Lions will get grounded.
Prediction: Green Bay (11)
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins, 1 PM
The Saints nearly lost to Brian Griese last week before managing to hang on for the win. New Orleans won't remind anyone of the 1985 Bears on defense, but they could put up a ton of points on offense, even with the injury to Marques Colston. I know people accused Joe Gibbs of being out of touch with the flow of the game when he returned after a long break in 2004. Still, last week against the Giants, 'skins coach Jim Zorn made Joe Gibbs look like a mastermind. Outside of a drive to close the first half, Washington looked impotent when they had the ball. I think they'll get better, but the Redskins defense will allow more points than their developing offense can muster.
Prediction: New Orleans (5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM
Well, so much for the Raiders leaving the past few years behind them. The franchise that is now 19-62 since Super Bowl XXXVII ended (.235 winning %) doesn't look like it has changed that much. They were trounced by the Broncos on Monday Night Football at HOME. "Commitment to Excellence"? Try "Commitment to Embarrassment". There's no need to get into the awkward Al Davis/Lane Kiffin/Rob Ryan triangle. Kansas City is definitely rebuilding, but at least they're not a franchise in ruins like Oakland. I think Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will break out this week in a big win for KC.
Prediction: Kansas City (13)
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 1 PM
The Bears finally re-discovered what has worked so well for them: send the QB out there and tell him not to f**k up, pound the ball, and rely on the defense to hold down the other team. Of course, that works a lot better when the defense is playing well, like it did in Indianapolis. Running back Matt Forte looks like an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and Kyle Orton avoided any disasters. Sprinkle in a few big plays in the return (and maybe passing) game from Devin Hester this season, and the Bears might just be a sleeper for a playoff spot. The Panthers pulled off their own shocker last week in San Diego against the Chargers. I think the Panthers are in the same boat as Chicago. This week, I think the absence of Steve Smith will catch up to the Panthers, and they won't have the deep passing game to expose Chicago.
Prediction: Chicago (10)
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams, 1 PM
OK, I don't think the Giants are going to make the playoffs. I like their offense, but I don't think their defense is as good as they were last year, and they won't catch fire again. Still, the Rams are absolutely dreadful. Donovan McNabb and his pedestrian receiving corps abused St. Louis defenders all game long last week. Rams QB Marc Bulger was constantly harassed, and the offense sputtered. There's no reason to think the Giants can't render the same punishment on the Rams.
Prediction: New York (14)
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 PM
The Bills enjoyed their first opening day win since 2005 with a thorough beating of Seattle. Buffalo will face some much stiffer competition this week in Jacksonville. The Jaguars can't afford to fall to 0-2 in a loaded AFC South, and I think they will pound the football early and often against an undersized Buffalo defensive line. On the flip side, Jacksonville might be able to shut down Buffalo by stopping Marshawn Lynch on first and second down. I like the Jaguars a lot in this game.
Prediction: Jacksonville (12)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, 1 PM
This has to be the most intriguing match-up of 0-1 teams for this week. Both teams have serious aspirations about the playoffs, and both are in improved divisions. The Colts not only lost to the Bears last week - they got handled. Some of that may have been due to Peyton Manning being rusty. The Vikings need more from QB Tavaris Jackson and the passing game before anyone punches them in for the postseason. In a crucial early season game, I'll take the team who's won more big games in recent years.
Prediction: Indianapolis (9)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4 PM
After taking a hold slap from reality in 2007 and finishing 5-11, the 49ers entered this season with lowered expectations. The 49ers have been looking for the right quarterback to lead the team since Jeff Garcia left after the 2003 season. Former #1 overall pick Alex Smith has been a complete bust, and is now out for the season. Things won't begin to look up in the bay area until San Francisco has someone competent under center. The Seahawks have their quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, but do they have anyone who will get open so he can throw the ball? Nate Buerlson is out for the season, Bobby Engram is out for this game, and Deion Branch is listed as doubtful. At least Seattle coach Mike Holmgren should only need to get a touchdown or two out of his offense, as the 49ers are just that bad.
Prediction: Seattle (16)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4 PM
Falcons players, coaches and fans could not have dreamed of a better week 1. Top draft pick Matt Ryan threw for a touchdown on his very first pass, Michael Turner set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single game, and Atlanta crushed Detroit. On top of that, a blackout was avoided. All of that has to make you ask: is this just the beginning? Or, was that the highpoint of the season? Tampa Bay may be in the middle of the first quarterback controversy of 2008. Jeff Garcia isn't entirely healthy, but even coach John Gruden hinted that the reason he's out may not entirely be health related. I just have a feeling that Atlanta is in for a letdown game after such an uplifting week 1 victory. Plus, Tampa Bay gets to enjoy homefield advantage.
Prediction: Tampa Bay (7)
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos, 4: 15 PM
The Chargers had one of the worst weeks of any team in the league. Not only did they lose in the last seconds on Sunday, but they lost their best defensive player for the year when Shawn Merriman went down with an injury. The Broncos were the complete opposites, as they pounded the Raiders on Monday Night. I actually think Denver is a playoff team this year. Unfortunately, San Diego has had their number as of late, and have swept the season series the last two years. The Chargers are still the kings of the AFC West until proven otherwise, and have more talent then Denver. Don't expect San Diego to leave this game in the balance late in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: San Diego (1)
New England Patriots at New York Jets, 4:15 PM
Has there ever been a win that went less noticed than the Patriots' one over the Chiefs last week? Of course, everyone gets a pass, especially when the defending league MVP is knocked out for the season halfway through the first quarter. Football fans have asked the question for years: is Bill Belichick a genius for setting up a great "system" where most any player can succeed? Or, is Tom Brady the main reason there are 3 Vince Lombardi trophies in Foxboro? This week will mark the beginning of a season which will answer that question. The Jets are looking to dethrone the Patriots as the AFC East leader. A lot of people are already handing a playoff spot to the Jets and writing the Patriots off. The Patriots hate the Jets for a plethora of reasons. New York may very well finish ahead of New England in the standings, but I don't think the Patriots are about to let the Jets take one more step at their expense.
Prediction: New England (4)
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 PM
Miami was actually competitive last week against the Jets before running out of time. Then again, the Dolphins looked competitive early on in 2007 ... and they finished 1-15. The Dolphins are, at best, a 4-12 or 5-11 team. They have a few years to wait before they can even expect to compete for a playoff spot. The Cardinals have experienced plenty of lean years, and are now looking to take that next step. The Seahawks are a year older and struggling with injuries, so the NFC West looks to be wide open. This may be Arizona's year to break through. I could see this being a blowout, with Cards QB Kurt Warner and his many weapons dissecting Miami's defense.
Prediction: Arizona (15)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 PM
The Steelers have owned the "new" Browns since their inaugural 1999 season, and have won the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Pittsburgh looks like the strongest team in the AFC, especially with Tom Brady's injury, and the shaky week 1 performances of the Colts and Chargers. The Browns were steamrolled by the Cowboys last week in a game where they were looking to make a statement. Still, if the Browns' offensive line can give QB Derrick Anderson enough time, he should be able to make enough big plays in the passing game to win. The real question is whether or not the Browns can contain Pittsburgh when they have the ball. I look for this game to be a shootout.
Prediction: Cleveland (2)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 PM on Monday Night
The Eagles were on the good end of the most lopsided game of week 1. But they were playing the Rams, so it's tough to really gauge how good they will be. With a healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia should be back in the playoffs. Dallas looks like they're going to maintain their title as "Best team of weeks 1-15", as they got off to a great start with a convincing win over Cleveland. Dallas just has too many weapons on offense for the Eagles to keep up with. Running back Marion Barber is banged up, but the Cowboys have 1st round rookie Felix Jones waiting in the wings.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, POSTPONED until November 9
For what it's worth, I had Houston for 3.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 PM
When is life tough for a head coach? When your starting quarterback goes down with an injury, and will be out for 2-4 weeks. When is life tougher? When that same QB sends the coach on a wild goose chase, and threats of suicide are reported. But Jeff Fisher doesn't have time to dwell on the difficulties of Vince Young, as the Titans look to improve to 2-0 with a win over the Bengals. I think the Titans are the better team, and I actually like Kerry Collins as a fill-in starter from time to time. Going against all of that, I'm picking the Bengals because ... well, I don't even know why. I just think it's their week, OK?
Prediction: Cincinnati (6)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 1 PM
Maybe there is life after Favre! Aaron Rodgers looked pretty poised last week, as he should have: he had plenty of time to study the last three seasons, as he got splinters in his ass watching ol' #4 sling it into quadruple coverage. The Packers contained a one-dimensional offense last week, as the power run-oriented Vikings were held below 20 points. This week, the aerial attack of the Lions will get grounded.
Prediction: Green Bay (11)
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins, 1 PM
The Saints nearly lost to Brian Griese last week before managing to hang on for the win. New Orleans won't remind anyone of the 1985 Bears on defense, but they could put up a ton of points on offense, even with the injury to Marques Colston. I know people accused Joe Gibbs of being out of touch with the flow of the game when he returned after a long break in 2004. Still, last week against the Giants, 'skins coach Jim Zorn made Joe Gibbs look like a mastermind. Outside of a drive to close the first half, Washington looked impotent when they had the ball. I think they'll get better, but the Redskins defense will allow more points than their developing offense can muster.
Prediction: New Orleans (5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM
Well, so much for the Raiders leaving the past few years behind them. The franchise that is now 19-62 since Super Bowl XXXVII ended (.235 winning %) doesn't look like it has changed that much. They were trounced by the Broncos on Monday Night Football at HOME. "Commitment to Excellence"? Try "Commitment to Embarrassment". There's no need to get into the awkward Al Davis/Lane Kiffin/Rob Ryan triangle. Kansas City is definitely rebuilding, but at least they're not a franchise in ruins like Oakland. I think Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will break out this week in a big win for KC.
Prediction: Kansas City (13)
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 1 PM
The Bears finally re-discovered what has worked so well for them: send the QB out there and tell him not to f**k up, pound the ball, and rely on the defense to hold down the other team. Of course, that works a lot better when the defense is playing well, like it did in Indianapolis. Running back Matt Forte looks like an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and Kyle Orton avoided any disasters. Sprinkle in a few big plays in the return (and maybe passing) game from Devin Hester this season, and the Bears might just be a sleeper for a playoff spot. The Panthers pulled off their own shocker last week in San Diego against the Chargers. I think the Panthers are in the same boat as Chicago. This week, I think the absence of Steve Smith will catch up to the Panthers, and they won't have the deep passing game to expose Chicago.
Prediction: Chicago (10)
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams, 1 PM
OK, I don't think the Giants are going to make the playoffs. I like their offense, but I don't think their defense is as good as they were last year, and they won't catch fire again. Still, the Rams are absolutely dreadful. Donovan McNabb and his pedestrian receiving corps abused St. Louis defenders all game long last week. Rams QB Marc Bulger was constantly harassed, and the offense sputtered. There's no reason to think the Giants can't render the same punishment on the Rams.
Prediction: New York (14)
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 PM
The Bills enjoyed their first opening day win since 2005 with a thorough beating of Seattle. Buffalo will face some much stiffer competition this week in Jacksonville. The Jaguars can't afford to fall to 0-2 in a loaded AFC South, and I think they will pound the football early and often against an undersized Buffalo defensive line. On the flip side, Jacksonville might be able to shut down Buffalo by stopping Marshawn Lynch on first and second down. I like the Jaguars a lot in this game.
Prediction: Jacksonville (12)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, 1 PM
This has to be the most intriguing match-up of 0-1 teams for this week. Both teams have serious aspirations about the playoffs, and both are in improved divisions. The Colts not only lost to the Bears last week - they got handled. Some of that may have been due to Peyton Manning being rusty. The Vikings need more from QB Tavaris Jackson and the passing game before anyone punches them in for the postseason. In a crucial early season game, I'll take the team who's won more big games in recent years.
Prediction: Indianapolis (9)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4 PM
After taking a hold slap from reality in 2007 and finishing 5-11, the 49ers entered this season with lowered expectations. The 49ers have been looking for the right quarterback to lead the team since Jeff Garcia left after the 2003 season. Former #1 overall pick Alex Smith has been a complete bust, and is now out for the season. Things won't begin to look up in the bay area until San Francisco has someone competent under center. The Seahawks have their quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, but do they have anyone who will get open so he can throw the ball? Nate Buerlson is out for the season, Bobby Engram is out for this game, and Deion Branch is listed as doubtful. At least Seattle coach Mike Holmgren should only need to get a touchdown or two out of his offense, as the 49ers are just that bad.
Prediction: Seattle (16)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4 PM
Falcons players, coaches and fans could not have dreamed of a better week 1. Top draft pick Matt Ryan threw for a touchdown on his very first pass, Michael Turner set a franchise record for rushing yards in a single game, and Atlanta crushed Detroit. On top of that, a blackout was avoided. All of that has to make you ask: is this just the beginning? Or, was that the highpoint of the season? Tampa Bay may be in the middle of the first quarterback controversy of 2008. Jeff Garcia isn't entirely healthy, but even coach John Gruden hinted that the reason he's out may not entirely be health related. I just have a feeling that Atlanta is in for a letdown game after such an uplifting week 1 victory. Plus, Tampa Bay gets to enjoy homefield advantage.
Prediction: Tampa Bay (7)
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos, 4: 15 PM
The Chargers had one of the worst weeks of any team in the league. Not only did they lose in the last seconds on Sunday, but they lost their best defensive player for the year when Shawn Merriman went down with an injury. The Broncos were the complete opposites, as they pounded the Raiders on Monday Night. I actually think Denver is a playoff team this year. Unfortunately, San Diego has had their number as of late, and have swept the season series the last two years. The Chargers are still the kings of the AFC West until proven otherwise, and have more talent then Denver. Don't expect San Diego to leave this game in the balance late in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: San Diego (1)
New England Patriots at New York Jets, 4:15 PM
Has there ever been a win that went less noticed than the Patriots' one over the Chiefs last week? Of course, everyone gets a pass, especially when the defending league MVP is knocked out for the season halfway through the first quarter. Football fans have asked the question for years: is Bill Belichick a genius for setting up a great "system" where most any player can succeed? Or, is Tom Brady the main reason there are 3 Vince Lombardi trophies in Foxboro? This week will mark the beginning of a season which will answer that question. The Jets are looking to dethrone the Patriots as the AFC East leader. A lot of people are already handing a playoff spot to the Jets and writing the Patriots off. The Patriots hate the Jets for a plethora of reasons. New York may very well finish ahead of New England in the standings, but I don't think the Patriots are about to let the Jets take one more step at their expense.
Prediction: New England (4)
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 PM
Miami was actually competitive last week against the Jets before running out of time. Then again, the Dolphins looked competitive early on in 2007 ... and they finished 1-15. The Dolphins are, at best, a 4-12 or 5-11 team. They have a few years to wait before they can even expect to compete for a playoff spot. The Cardinals have experienced plenty of lean years, and are now looking to take that next step. The Seahawks are a year older and struggling with injuries, so the NFC West looks to be wide open. This may be Arizona's year to break through. I could see this being a blowout, with Cards QB Kurt Warner and his many weapons dissecting Miami's defense.
Prediction: Arizona (15)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 PM
The Steelers have owned the "new" Browns since their inaugural 1999 season, and have won the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Pittsburgh looks like the strongest team in the AFC, especially with Tom Brady's injury, and the shaky week 1 performances of the Colts and Chargers. The Browns were steamrolled by the Cowboys last week in a game where they were looking to make a statement. Still, if the Browns' offensive line can give QB Derrick Anderson enough time, he should be able to make enough big plays in the passing game to win. The real question is whether or not the Browns can contain Pittsburgh when they have the ball. I look for this game to be a shootout.
Prediction: Cleveland (2)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 PM on Monday Night
The Eagles were on the good end of the most lopsided game of week 1. But they were playing the Rams, so it's tough to really gauge how good they will be. With a healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia should be back in the playoffs. Dallas looks like they're going to maintain their title as "Best team of weeks 1-15", as they got off to a great start with a convincing win over Cleveland. Dallas just has too many weapons on offense for the Eagles to keep up with. Running back Marion Barber is banged up, but the Cowboys have 1st round rookie Felix Jones waiting in the wings.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, POSTPONED until November 9
For what it's worth, I had Houston for 3.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Monday Night Football Games
Green Bay vs • Minnesota Q4 2:00, Min 19 - GB 24 (1 confident point)
• Denver vs Oakland Mon, Sep 8 at 10:15 pm (10 points)
• Denver vs Oakland Mon, Sep 8 at 10:15 pm (10 points)
Friday, September 5, 2008
Week 1 Picks and breakdowns
Sorry for the lengthy post, but I wanted to sneak in some previews with the picks!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1 PM
2007 Records: Cincinnati was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Baltimore was 5-11 (4-4 at home)
Since head coach Marvin Lewis arrived for the 2003 season, the Bengals have been a team with an explosive offense, but a shoddy defense. In 2008, they may have a shoddy offense, and an implosive defense. The Bengals handed the starting running back job to 5th year veteran Chris Perry when they cut Rudi Johnson. Perry was a college standout at Michigan, but has done little to prove himself at the next level, and he fractured his leg in the 2006 season. The Bengals also cut team captain and offensive tackle Willie Anderson. On defense, there are no impact players, although rookie Keith Rivers could spotlight a thin linebacker corps.
Everything looked great for Baltimore in 2007: they were 4-2, an in playoff contention. Then they fell to 4-4 ... then 4-6 .... before anyone knew what happened, Baltimore closed the season at 5-11, and head coach Brian Billick was gone. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden retired after the year. After a 2006 season that they dominated defensively, the Ravens slipped big-time, all the way down to allowing 384 points, the 10th most in the NFL. John Harbaugh is thew new man at the helm, and the Ravens are looking to get back to their 2006 form.
I think both teams are rebuilding. Both are about equal in terms of talent. Cincinnati does have the more proven quarterback and receivers, but I like Baltimore's running game and defense better. Plus, they are playing at home, sooo..
Prediction: Baltimore (4)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM
2007 Records: Houston was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); Pittsburgh was 10-6 (7-1 at home)
The task for the 2008 Texans is simple: beat the good NFL teams. In 2007, the Texans were a woeful 2-6 against playoff teams. Only 2 of their 8 wins were against playoff teams too. The AFC South produced three playoff teams, and it doesn't look like the division got any softer around the Texans. With a developing defense centered around former #1 pick Mario Williams, the Texans are going to look to knock the Colts off their pedestal. My sleeper: rookie running back Steve Slaton. The Texans' backfield was not that great last year, so he should see a lot of opportunities.
In the AFC last year, the Steelers looked like a strong contender for the first 3/4 of the season. But starting with a blowout at New England, the Steelers went into a tailspin, finishing 1-3 over the final 4 weeks, and suffering a disappointing loss against Jacksonville in the wild card round. There really isn't any reason to believe the Steelers won't return as a top-4 AFC team. The Bengals and Ravens are re-building, and talks of the Browns taking the AFC North are probably premature. While I think the Texans will get even better this season, I just think they will be too one-dimensional on offense this early in the season. I can easily see Pittsburgh focusing on the pass, and making it a long day for Texans QB Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (11)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
2007 Records: Detroit was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Atlanta was 4-12 (3-5 at home).
Detroit was the NFC's Cinderella team last season, as they sat at 6-2 at the halfway point ... then they went 1-7. It's not even like their losses were all that close. In those 7 contests, the Lions were defeated by an average of nearly 17 points. It's quite possible that the rest of the NFL caught on to the Lions' pass-happy offense. I think the Lions will try to maintain some semblance of balance in 2008, especially with offensive "whiz" Mike Martz off to San Francisco.
Falcon fans saw more crap in 2007 than a toilet at taco bell. It Started with the embarrassing Michael Vick saga, continued with the Bobby Petrino premature departure and wrapped up with a 4-12 campaign. I guess it's not like anyone was paying attention in Atlanta anyway. In fact, this game was in serious jeopardy of being blacked out locally up until just a few days ago. At least the Falcons are trying to revamp their offense. Top pick Matt Ryan makes his debut at QB, and Michael "The Burner" Turner will finally get the chance to be the main runner on an NFL team. In this match-up, I think Detroit will narrowly escape with a victory. I could see both offenses moving fairly easy, but I just think Ryan will make one too many mistakes.
Prediction: Detroit (5)
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
2007 Records: Seattle was 10-6 (3-5 on the road); Buffalo was 7-9 (4-4 at home).
This is Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's swan song. While I was never particularly awed by him, his resume is fairly impressive, and his teams are always in contention. The Seahawks have generally had a pretty balanced West Coast offense attack under Holmgren, with Matt Hasselbeck slinging passes and Shaun Alexander churning out 1,000+ yard seasons. But Alexander was cut, and was nowhere near his MVP form the past two seasons. Now, the 'Hawks will really be leaning on Hasselbeck to put up points, as they have a revamped backfield, with newly acquired Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The defense is OK, but they still have tire marks on the front of their jerseys after getting run over by the Packers in the playoffs last January.
The Bills went on a roller coaster ride for the 2007 season. They started out 1-4, got above .500 a few times, and ended at 7-9. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and the Jets and Dolphins have reloaded, so life won't get easier for Buffalo. At least QB Trent Edwards looks like a competent signal caller, and back Marshawn Lynch is a tough young running back. If things work out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see Buffalo finishing with a winning record. In this game, I think the difference will be on special teams, where the Bills have standout return men in Roscoe Parrish and Terrence McGee.
Prediction: Buffalo (5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
2007 Records: Jacksonville was 11-5 (5-3 on the road); Tennessee was 10-6 (5-3 at home)
Jacksonville had a successful 2007 campaign, but it ended in disappointment with a 31-20 loss to New England in the playoffs. The thing that stood out about that game was the ease in which Tom Brady picked apart the Jags defense, as he had only 2 incompletions in 28 pass attempts. The Jaguars picked up a pair of pass rushers in the draft, as they felt that was their major weakness in 2007. The group of wide receivers could still be better, especially when Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter are starting. At least the Jaguars know what their strengths are: a quarterback who avoids mistakes (David Garrard), a power running game and a stout defense.
Tennessee has a deep backfield, headed by Lendale White, but that's about it on offense. QB Vince Young looked like regressed in his second year, probably because he had no difference makers at wide receiver. Free agent acquisition Alge Crumpler will be looked at as the go-to guy at tight end. The defense remains strong, and has added new/old face Jevon Kearse. I don't see the formula for Tennessee changing: limited offense, strong defense and win the turnover game. I think this is the year Jacksonville puts some distance between themselves and Tennessee. They seem more talented on both sides of the ball, even though both teams are equally physical.
Prediction: Jacksonville (2)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM
2007 Records: New York was 4-12 (1-7 on the road); Miami was 1-15 (1-7 at home)
It's safe to say the Jets were not pleased with how 2007 went. They went out in the offseason and did something about it, too. The offensive line is revamped, with Damien Woody and Alan Faneca joining the fold. The defense has added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and rookie Vernon Gholston. Of course, the biggest splash was getting Brett Favre when he came out of retirement, and releasing noodle-armed QB Chad Pennington (more on him in a moment). The Jets don't want to just challenge for a playoff spot, they want to know the Patriots off their AFC East throne.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom in 2007. Years of atrocious draft classes, bad front office moves and declining talent led to an unsightly 1-15 season. Wholesale changes ensued, including the firing of Cam Cameron and the arrival of Bill Parcells. Parcells is good, but even he is going to need a few years to get the Dolphins back to something resembling respectability. Pennington is now in Miami, and gets an immediate chance at some payback against his former team. His teammates are going to need to be as fired up if the Dolphins even want a chance. The Jets have some flaws, like a lack of depth at receiver and a questionable running game, but Miami is unlikely to have enough firewpower to beat them.
Prediction: New York (13)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 PM
2007 Results: Kansas City was 4-12 (2-6 on the road); New England was 16-0 (8-0 at home)
No need to recap the Patriots 2007 season. They entered with astronomically high expectations, got busted for Spygate, blew teams out of the water, set records, steamrolled to the Super Bowl ... and lost a shocking game to the Giants. They lost Asante Samuel to the Eagles in free agency, but that was the only real impact loss. Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Donte Stallworth were not spectacular players. The really important concern is the health of Tom Brady, the only truly irreplaceable Patriot. The defense added youth in the draft, primarily with inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Looking around the AFC, there's no reason to think the Patriots won't be the early favorites to return to the Big Dance.
While most people don't remember it, the Chiefs actually started 2007 with a respectable 4-3 record ... before they lost 9 straight. The Chiefs have a talented, if shaky big three on offense. Larry Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in week 9, and will look to maneuver behind and through a suspect offensive line. Tight end Tony Gonzalez is another year older, though he is still productive, and had 99 catches last year. Receiver Dwayne Bowe will look to avoid the sophomore slump. The defense was in the middle of the pack last season, but lost their top player - end Jarred Allen - to the Vikings. The Chiefs are rebuilding, and would be lucky to reach .500. I'd expect a blowout at the hands of the Patriots.
Prediction: New England (16)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
2007 Results: Tampa Bay was 9-7 (3-5 on the road); New Orleans was 7-9 (3-5 at home)
Tampa Bay rebounded big-time for their rough 2006 campaign. John Gruden's team still hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII though. A lot of people stepped in and got them to the postseason, including QB Jeff Garcia and running back Earnest Graham. The defense was strong, even if they weren't reminding anyone of the title-winning edition earlier this millennium. I just think too many key players on Tampa Bay have more good years behind them then in front of them, including Garcia, receiver Joey Galloway, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. The Panthers are primed for a bounce back year, as are the Saints.
All the good feelings from the 2006 season were washed away by a depressing 2007 finish for New Orleans. The offense should return to it's high-powered attack, with Drew Brees behind center, and a recovered Deuce McCAllister and a re-dedicated Reggie Bush in the running back stable. Marques Colston is a complete receiver, and Devery Henderson is the deep threat. The real X factor is tight end Jeremy Shockey. He found out that the Giants didn't need him to win a title, and he was no longer needed, period. If he stay healthy, he is one of the best tight ends in football. The defense has talent, but it's just a question of them forming a cohesive unit. I can see New Orleans using this game against a divisional opponent as a launching pad to a winning season. They should have too much firepower for the Bucs defense.
Prediction: New Orleans (6)
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 PM
2007 Results: St. Louis was 3-13 (2-6 at home); Philadelphia was 8-8 (3-5 at home)
St. Louis season was over pretty early in 2007. Injuries and ineffectiveness on both sides of the ball put them in an 0-8 hole, and they never showed signs of life. Steven Jackson and Torry Holt were the only consistent weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal. Also, future Hall of Fame left tackle Orlando Pace missed the final 15 games. There's some talent on the Rams roster, but not enough to win any more than 6 or 7 games.
The Eagles saved face down the stretch in 2007 with three wins in a row. If Donovan McNabb stays healthy for the first time since 2004, there's no reason to think Philadelphia can't return to the playoffs. Brian Westbrook is a dynamic running back, and even though the Eagles will be without Kevin Curtis, this should be a good game for the other receivers to step up, including Reggie Brown and rookie DeSean Jackson. This is a far cry from "The Greatest Show on Turf", and the Eagles should have little trouble dispatching St. Louis.
Prediction: Philadelphia (13)
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Carolina was 7-9 (5-3 on the road); San Diego was 11-5 (7-1 at home)
Carolina has been disappointing the last two seasons after coming within one game of Super Bowl XL. QB Jake Delhomme looks to have a fully healthy season for the first time since 2005. The Panthers will be without superstar receiver Steve Smith though, who just happened to get into a fist fight with a teammate - again. Mushin Muhammad is back, and he's looking to bounce back after some lean years in Chicago. The defense isn't particularly great, but it shouldn't prevent the Panthers from contending for a playoff spot.
The Chargers may just be the most talented team in football. They finally won a few playoff games last year, which was big for a lot of people, coach Norv Turner in particular. The AFC West will offer very little in the way of resistance, as the Chiefs and Raiders are rebuilding, while the Broncos don't look too impressive. The Chargers will start the season with a rout.
Prediction; San Diego (14)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Arizona was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); San Francisco was 5-11 (3-5 at home)
It wasn't easy, but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the right decision in making Kurt Warner his opening day starter at QB over Matt Leinart. Warner played as well as any field general in the NFL over the last half of the season, and Leinart has been spotty - at best. With Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his arsenal, Warner may be just as good in 2008. The defense has some play makers, with Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle. The Cardinals are a sleeper for a playoff position - once again.
San Francisco was supposed to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in 2007. They put everything into the season, including getting an extra draft pick, making trades and big free agent splashes. While they started out OK, they quickly flamed out. The offense was anemic, and the defense wasn't much better. Outside of running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis, there are few pieces to build around. Bay area fans are probably in for another long season.
Prediction: Arizona (9)
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Dallas was 13-3 (7-1 on the road); Cleveland was 10-6 (7-1 at home).
If they're not the most talented team in the NFL, they Cowboys are at least the most talented team in their conference. The number of pro bowlers they sported in 2007 shows that. By the way, who caught Tony Romo's last pass that mattered? Answer: the Giants. Anyway, the Cowboys need to win a playoff game. Their window is only getting smaller as the team gets older and the NFC East gets better.
The Browns have not given their fans much reason to get excited since 1999. Anything less than a trip to the playoffs will be viewed as a monumental disappointment to Cleveland. Every season, there seems to be a team that everyone falls in love with. In 2006, it was the Miami Dolphins, who promptly went 6-10. Last season, it was the 49ers, who had a dismal 5-11 campaign. Whenever a team gets some new pieces, closes the previous season with a few wins and "wins" the offseason, the expectations soar. I don't think this will be the case for Cleveland, but who knows? I do think that Dallas will be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 PM
2007 Results: Chicago was 7-9 (3-5 on the road); Indianapolis was 13-3 (6-2 at home)
The Bears became just the latest victims of the Super Bowl loser hangover. The once-feared defense had no teeth, and the offense was as lame as ever. Chicago missed running back Thomas Jones more than they thought they would, and Rex Grossman lost his starting job. The Bears offensive attack could be just as lame this year, especially with Mushin Mohammad gone. Green Bay and Minnesota should challenge for playoff spots, and Detroit beat Chicago twice last year. It could be another cold, long season in the Windy City.
The Colts open up Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Every Colt fan would like to forget Indianapolis' last game in the RCA Dome, where they were shocked by the Chargers in a divisional playoff game. While there were some concerns over Peyton Manning's health, the Colts should be fine in 2008. There's no reason to think they won't be a top-3 team in their conference. Marvin Harrison needs to improve 2007 was a fluke, and members of the defensive line (other than Dwight Freeney) need to step up. A blowout of the Bears would be a good place to start.
Prediction: Indianapolis (15)
*Monday Night Previews soon!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1 PM
2007 Records: Cincinnati was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Baltimore was 5-11 (4-4 at home)
Since head coach Marvin Lewis arrived for the 2003 season, the Bengals have been a team with an explosive offense, but a shoddy defense. In 2008, they may have a shoddy offense, and an implosive defense. The Bengals handed the starting running back job to 5th year veteran Chris Perry when they cut Rudi Johnson. Perry was a college standout at Michigan, but has done little to prove himself at the next level, and he fractured his leg in the 2006 season. The Bengals also cut team captain and offensive tackle Willie Anderson. On defense, there are no impact players, although rookie Keith Rivers could spotlight a thin linebacker corps.
Everything looked great for Baltimore in 2007: they were 4-2, an in playoff contention. Then they fell to 4-4 ... then 4-6 .... before anyone knew what happened, Baltimore closed the season at 5-11, and head coach Brian Billick was gone. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden retired after the year. After a 2006 season that they dominated defensively, the Ravens slipped big-time, all the way down to allowing 384 points, the 10th most in the NFL. John Harbaugh is thew new man at the helm, and the Ravens are looking to get back to their 2006 form.
I think both teams are rebuilding. Both are about equal in terms of talent. Cincinnati does have the more proven quarterback and receivers, but I like Baltimore's running game and defense better. Plus, they are playing at home, sooo..
Prediction: Baltimore (4)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM
2007 Records: Houston was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); Pittsburgh was 10-6 (7-1 at home)
The task for the 2008 Texans is simple: beat the good NFL teams. In 2007, the Texans were a woeful 2-6 against playoff teams. Only 2 of their 8 wins were against playoff teams too. The AFC South produced three playoff teams, and it doesn't look like the division got any softer around the Texans. With a developing defense centered around former #1 pick Mario Williams, the Texans are going to look to knock the Colts off their pedestal. My sleeper: rookie running back Steve Slaton. The Texans' backfield was not that great last year, so he should see a lot of opportunities.
In the AFC last year, the Steelers looked like a strong contender for the first 3/4 of the season. But starting with a blowout at New England, the Steelers went into a tailspin, finishing 1-3 over the final 4 weeks, and suffering a disappointing loss against Jacksonville in the wild card round. There really isn't any reason to believe the Steelers won't return as a top-4 AFC team. The Bengals and Ravens are re-building, and talks of the Browns taking the AFC North are probably premature. While I think the Texans will get even better this season, I just think they will be too one-dimensional on offense this early in the season. I can easily see Pittsburgh focusing on the pass, and making it a long day for Texans QB Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Pittsburgh (11)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM
2007 Records: Detroit was 7-9 (2-6 on the road); Atlanta was 4-12 (3-5 at home).
Detroit was the NFC's Cinderella team last season, as they sat at 6-2 at the halfway point ... then they went 1-7. It's not even like their losses were all that close. In those 7 contests, the Lions were defeated by an average of nearly 17 points. It's quite possible that the rest of the NFL caught on to the Lions' pass-happy offense. I think the Lions will try to maintain some semblance of balance in 2008, especially with offensive "whiz" Mike Martz off to San Francisco.
Falcon fans saw more crap in 2007 than a toilet at taco bell. It Started with the embarrassing Michael Vick saga, continued with the Bobby Petrino premature departure and wrapped up with a 4-12 campaign. I guess it's not like anyone was paying attention in Atlanta anyway. In fact, this game was in serious jeopardy of being blacked out locally up until just a few days ago. At least the Falcons are trying to revamp their offense. Top pick Matt Ryan makes his debut at QB, and Michael "The Burner" Turner will finally get the chance to be the main runner on an NFL team. In this match-up, I think Detroit will narrowly escape with a victory. I could see both offenses moving fairly easy, but I just think Ryan will make one too many mistakes.
Prediction: Detroit (5)
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM
2007 Records: Seattle was 10-6 (3-5 on the road); Buffalo was 7-9 (4-4 at home).
This is Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's swan song. While I was never particularly awed by him, his resume is fairly impressive, and his teams are always in contention. The Seahawks have generally had a pretty balanced West Coast offense attack under Holmgren, with Matt Hasselbeck slinging passes and Shaun Alexander churning out 1,000+ yard seasons. But Alexander was cut, and was nowhere near his MVP form the past two seasons. Now, the 'Hawks will really be leaning on Hasselbeck to put up points, as they have a revamped backfield, with newly acquired Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The defense is OK, but they still have tire marks on the front of their jerseys after getting run over by the Packers in the playoffs last January.
The Bills went on a roller coaster ride for the 2007 season. They started out 1-4, got above .500 a few times, and ended at 7-9. The Patriots are still the Patriots, and the Jets and Dolphins have reloaded, so life won't get easier for Buffalo. At least QB Trent Edwards looks like a competent signal caller, and back Marshawn Lynch is a tough young running back. If things work out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see Buffalo finishing with a winning record. In this game, I think the difference will be on special teams, where the Bills have standout return men in Roscoe Parrish and Terrence McGee.
Prediction: Buffalo (5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 PM
2007 Records: Jacksonville was 11-5 (5-3 on the road); Tennessee was 10-6 (5-3 at home)
Jacksonville had a successful 2007 campaign, but it ended in disappointment with a 31-20 loss to New England in the playoffs. The thing that stood out about that game was the ease in which Tom Brady picked apart the Jags defense, as he had only 2 incompletions in 28 pass attempts. The Jaguars picked up a pair of pass rushers in the draft, as they felt that was their major weakness in 2007. The group of wide receivers could still be better, especially when Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter are starting. At least the Jaguars know what their strengths are: a quarterback who avoids mistakes (David Garrard), a power running game and a stout defense.
Tennessee has a deep backfield, headed by Lendale White, but that's about it on offense. QB Vince Young looked like regressed in his second year, probably because he had no difference makers at wide receiver. Free agent acquisition Alge Crumpler will be looked at as the go-to guy at tight end. The defense remains strong, and has added new/old face Jevon Kearse. I don't see the formula for Tennessee changing: limited offense, strong defense and win the turnover game. I think this is the year Jacksonville puts some distance between themselves and Tennessee. They seem more talented on both sides of the ball, even though both teams are equally physical.
Prediction: Jacksonville (2)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM
2007 Records: New York was 4-12 (1-7 on the road); Miami was 1-15 (1-7 at home)
It's safe to say the Jets were not pleased with how 2007 went. They went out in the offseason and did something about it, too. The offensive line is revamped, with Damien Woody and Alan Faneca joining the fold. The defense has added Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and rookie Vernon Gholston. Of course, the biggest splash was getting Brett Favre when he came out of retirement, and releasing noodle-armed QB Chad Pennington (more on him in a moment). The Jets don't want to just challenge for a playoff spot, they want to know the Patriots off their AFC East throne.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom in 2007. Years of atrocious draft classes, bad front office moves and declining talent led to an unsightly 1-15 season. Wholesale changes ensued, including the firing of Cam Cameron and the arrival of Bill Parcells. Parcells is good, but even he is going to need a few years to get the Dolphins back to something resembling respectability. Pennington is now in Miami, and gets an immediate chance at some payback against his former team. His teammates are going to need to be as fired up if the Dolphins even want a chance. The Jets have some flaws, like a lack of depth at receiver and a questionable running game, but Miami is unlikely to have enough firewpower to beat them.
Prediction: New York (13)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 PM
2007 Results: Kansas City was 4-12 (2-6 on the road); New England was 16-0 (8-0 at home)
No need to recap the Patriots 2007 season. They entered with astronomically high expectations, got busted for Spygate, blew teams out of the water, set records, steamrolled to the Super Bowl ... and lost a shocking game to the Giants. They lost Asante Samuel to the Eagles in free agency, but that was the only real impact loss. Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Donte Stallworth were not spectacular players. The really important concern is the health of Tom Brady, the only truly irreplaceable Patriot. The defense added youth in the draft, primarily with inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Looking around the AFC, there's no reason to think the Patriots won't be the early favorites to return to the Big Dance.
While most people don't remember it, the Chiefs actually started 2007 with a respectable 4-3 record ... before they lost 9 straight. The Chiefs have a talented, if shaky big three on offense. Larry Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in week 9, and will look to maneuver behind and through a suspect offensive line. Tight end Tony Gonzalez is another year older, though he is still productive, and had 99 catches last year. Receiver Dwayne Bowe will look to avoid the sophomore slump. The defense was in the middle of the pack last season, but lost their top player - end Jarred Allen - to the Vikings. The Chiefs are rebuilding, and would be lucky to reach .500. I'd expect a blowout at the hands of the Patriots.
Prediction: New England (16)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM
2007 Results: Tampa Bay was 9-7 (3-5 on the road); New Orleans was 7-9 (3-5 at home)
Tampa Bay rebounded big-time for their rough 2006 campaign. John Gruden's team still hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII though. A lot of people stepped in and got them to the postseason, including QB Jeff Garcia and running back Earnest Graham. The defense was strong, even if they weren't reminding anyone of the title-winning edition earlier this millennium. I just think too many key players on Tampa Bay have more good years behind them then in front of them, including Garcia, receiver Joey Galloway, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. The Panthers are primed for a bounce back year, as are the Saints.
All the good feelings from the 2006 season were washed away by a depressing 2007 finish for New Orleans. The offense should return to it's high-powered attack, with Drew Brees behind center, and a recovered Deuce McCAllister and a re-dedicated Reggie Bush in the running back stable. Marques Colston is a complete receiver, and Devery Henderson is the deep threat. The real X factor is tight end Jeremy Shockey. He found out that the Giants didn't need him to win a title, and he was no longer needed, period. If he stay healthy, he is one of the best tight ends in football. The defense has talent, but it's just a question of them forming a cohesive unit. I can see New Orleans using this game against a divisional opponent as a launching pad to a winning season. They should have too much firepower for the Bucs defense.
Prediction: New Orleans (6)
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 PM
2007 Results: St. Louis was 3-13 (2-6 at home); Philadelphia was 8-8 (3-5 at home)
St. Louis season was over pretty early in 2007. Injuries and ineffectiveness on both sides of the ball put them in an 0-8 hole, and they never showed signs of life. Steven Jackson and Torry Holt were the only consistent weapons at QB Marc Bulger's disposal. Also, future Hall of Fame left tackle Orlando Pace missed the final 15 games. There's some talent on the Rams roster, but not enough to win any more than 6 or 7 games.
The Eagles saved face down the stretch in 2007 with three wins in a row. If Donovan McNabb stays healthy for the first time since 2004, there's no reason to think Philadelphia can't return to the playoffs. Brian Westbrook is a dynamic running back, and even though the Eagles will be without Kevin Curtis, this should be a good game for the other receivers to step up, including Reggie Brown and rookie DeSean Jackson. This is a far cry from "The Greatest Show on Turf", and the Eagles should have little trouble dispatching St. Louis.
Prediction: Philadelphia (13)
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Carolina was 7-9 (5-3 on the road); San Diego was 11-5 (7-1 at home)
Carolina has been disappointing the last two seasons after coming within one game of Super Bowl XL. QB Jake Delhomme looks to have a fully healthy season for the first time since 2005. The Panthers will be without superstar receiver Steve Smith though, who just happened to get into a fist fight with a teammate - again. Mushin Muhammad is back, and he's looking to bounce back after some lean years in Chicago. The defense isn't particularly great, but it shouldn't prevent the Panthers from contending for a playoff spot.
The Chargers may just be the most talented team in football. They finally won a few playoff games last year, which was big for a lot of people, coach Norv Turner in particular. The AFC West will offer very little in the way of resistance, as the Chiefs and Raiders are rebuilding, while the Broncos don't look too impressive. The Chargers will start the season with a rout.
Prediction; San Diego (14)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Arizona was 8-8 (2-6 on the road); San Francisco was 5-11 (3-5 at home)
It wasn't easy, but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt made the right decision in making Kurt Warner his opening day starter at QB over Matt Leinart. Warner played as well as any field general in the NFL over the last half of the season, and Leinart has been spotty - at best. With Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his arsenal, Warner may be just as good in 2008. The defense has some play makers, with Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle. The Cardinals are a sleeper for a playoff position - once again.
San Francisco was supposed to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in 2007. They put everything into the season, including getting an extra draft pick, making trades and big free agent splashes. While they started out OK, they quickly flamed out. The offense was anemic, and the defense wasn't much better. Outside of running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis, there are few pieces to build around. Bay area fans are probably in for another long season.
Prediction: Arizona (9)
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, 4:15 PM
2007 Results: Dallas was 13-3 (7-1 on the road); Cleveland was 10-6 (7-1 at home).
If they're not the most talented team in the NFL, they Cowboys are at least the most talented team in their conference. The number of pro bowlers they sported in 2007 shows that. By the way, who caught Tony Romo's last pass that mattered? Answer: the Giants. Anyway, the Cowboys need to win a playoff game. Their window is only getting smaller as the team gets older and the NFC East gets better.
The Browns have not given their fans much reason to get excited since 1999. Anything less than a trip to the playoffs will be viewed as a monumental disappointment to Cleveland. Every season, there seems to be a team that everyone falls in love with. In 2006, it was the Miami Dolphins, who promptly went 6-10. Last season, it was the 49ers, who had a dismal 5-11 campaign. Whenever a team gets some new pieces, closes the previous season with a few wins and "wins" the offseason, the expectations soar. I don't think this will be the case for Cleveland, but who knows? I do think that Dallas will be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: Dallas (8)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 PM
2007 Results: Chicago was 7-9 (3-5 on the road); Indianapolis was 13-3 (6-2 at home)
The Bears became just the latest victims of the Super Bowl loser hangover. The once-feared defense had no teeth, and the offense was as lame as ever. Chicago missed running back Thomas Jones more than they thought they would, and Rex Grossman lost his starting job. The Bears offensive attack could be just as lame this year, especially with Mushin Mohammad gone. Green Bay and Minnesota should challenge for playoff spots, and Detroit beat Chicago twice last year. It could be another cold, long season in the Windy City.
The Colts open up Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Every Colt fan would like to forget Indianapolis' last game in the RCA Dome, where they were shocked by the Chargers in a divisional playoff game. While there were some concerns over Peyton Manning's health, the Colts should be fine in 2008. There's no reason to think they won't be a top-3 team in their conference. Marvin Harrison needs to improve 2007 was a fluke, and members of the defensive line (other than Dwight Freeney) need to step up. A blowout of the Bears would be a good place to start.
Prediction: Indianapolis (15)
*Monday Night Previews soon!
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Thursday Night Football Kicks Off the 2008 NFL Season
Each week, I'm going to give my breakdown and prediction of each NFL game. The season starts tonight, so I figured now would be as good a time as any to get started. I'm only doing the Thursday Night Game, but the other predictions will be available soon after that. The predictions work on a "confidence level" basis. That means that I pick a winner, and assign a number from 1 (meaning least confident) all the way up to 16 (for most confident). This week, there are 16 games, so 16 is the highest total I can assign to a given game. I'm going to work on getting all my stuff out there earlier in the week from now on (say, by Thursdays) ...
Washington Redskins at New York Giants, 7 PM
2007 Records: Washington was 9-7 (5-3 at home, 4-4 on the road); New York was 10-6 (3-5 at home, 7-1 on the road). Prediction for 2008: Washington will go 8-8, while New York will go 7-9.
Well, here we are.
214 days ago, the New York "football" Giants shocked the football world by stopping the New England Patriots from sealing their place in history with a 19-0 season. They became America's team for that game, and broke the hearts of Patriots fans everywhere (including myself).
But that was a very different Giants team. The 21st century's version of the New York Sack Exchange entered a downward spiral this offseason. Michael Strahan decided that, after winning an elusive Super Bowl in his 15th NFL season, there was no need to continue. So, he's off to a cushy TV gig. Osi Umenyiora wishes the choice to not play the season was his. Cartilage damage suffered in the meaningless preseason will prevent him from recording a single take-down of opposing quarterbacks, after he registered 13 in 2007. Add that total to Strahan's, and 22 sacks from 2007 are gone. Three other defensive starters - linebackers Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson - are no longer around, either.
Still, it's not like the Giants need to cancel the season before it's start. Mercurial tight end Jeremy Shockey is also gone, but Kevin Boss looked good down the stretch in 2007. The Giants still have budding Eli Manning, who may have taken that "leap" in 2007 to the status of a trustworthy franchise quarterback. Running back Brandon Jacobs will provide a bruising ground attack, and wideout Plaxico Burress will still be the go-to guy for Big Blue.
Washington is entering it's second post-Joe Gibbs era. This time, Jim Zorn has been handed the keys by Daniel Snyder. Washington sneaked into the playoffs last year, ripping off four straight wins to punch their ticket. All that was after the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. In 2008, the 'skins hope they won't need another late season run.
I like the Washington offense, but I don't think they have enough at the receiver position to win this game. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are both dynamic, but there is not much behind them. Even with depleted depth along their defensive front, I can see the Giants shutting down Washington's running game, and forcing QB Jason Campbell to make plays. Plus, no defending Super Bowl champion has lost their home opener since the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Does that really apply to the 2008 Giants? Nope. Just wanted to throw a useless fact out there, people!
Here's another one: the 2007 Giants had a 3-5 record at home. In doing so, they became only the second Super Bowl champions in the last three decades to have a non-winning record at home. The 1988 San Francisco 49ers went 4-4 before winning Super Bowl XXIII. OK, I'm done ..
Prediction: New York (7)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants, 7 PM
2007 Records: Washington was 9-7 (5-3 at home, 4-4 on the road); New York was 10-6 (3-5 at home, 7-1 on the road). Prediction for 2008: Washington will go 8-8, while New York will go 7-9.
Well, here we are.
214 days ago, the New York "football" Giants shocked the football world by stopping the New England Patriots from sealing their place in history with a 19-0 season. They became America's team for that game, and broke the hearts of Patriots fans everywhere (including myself).
But that was a very different Giants team. The 21st century's version of the New York Sack Exchange entered a downward spiral this offseason. Michael Strahan decided that, after winning an elusive Super Bowl in his 15th NFL season, there was no need to continue. So, he's off to a cushy TV gig. Osi Umenyiora wishes the choice to not play the season was his. Cartilage damage suffered in the meaningless preseason will prevent him from recording a single take-down of opposing quarterbacks, after he registered 13 in 2007. Add that total to Strahan's, and 22 sacks from 2007 are gone. Three other defensive starters - linebackers Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson - are no longer around, either.
Still, it's not like the Giants need to cancel the season before it's start. Mercurial tight end Jeremy Shockey is also gone, but Kevin Boss looked good down the stretch in 2007. The Giants still have budding Eli Manning, who may have taken that "leap" in 2007 to the status of a trustworthy franchise quarterback. Running back Brandon Jacobs will provide a bruising ground attack, and wideout Plaxico Burress will still be the go-to guy for Big Blue.
Washington is entering it's second post-Joe Gibbs era. This time, Jim Zorn has been handed the keys by Daniel Snyder. Washington sneaked into the playoffs last year, ripping off four straight wins to punch their ticket. All that was after the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. In 2008, the 'skins hope they won't need another late season run.
I like the Washington offense, but I don't think they have enough at the receiver position to win this game. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are both dynamic, but there is not much behind them. Even with depleted depth along their defensive front, I can see the Giants shutting down Washington's running game, and forcing QB Jason Campbell to make plays. Plus, no defending Super Bowl champion has lost their home opener since the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Does that really apply to the 2008 Giants? Nope. Just wanted to throw a useless fact out there, people!
Here's another one: the 2007 Giants had a 3-5 record at home. In doing so, they became only the second Super Bowl champions in the last three decades to have a non-winning record at home. The 1988 San Francisco 49ers went 4-4 before winning Super Bowl XXIII. OK, I'm done ..
Prediction: New York (7)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
